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#1
Mar 18 2021 07:11am
Has anyone been following the real estate markets? Curious what others predictions are. In my market, prices are at all time highs, the increase in list prices year to year is also growing. The cost of lumber is also at an all time high. Also nationally, news media always talking about limited supply high demand scenarios, increasing homelessness and child homelessness. Meanwhile, foreclosures and evictions halted, delaying the inevitable, and no major changes from HUD or local govs to allow alternative solutions.

IMO this bubble will burst, but not sure what government intervention will be since we've spent so much on COVID stimulus already. Probably more supply turned into rentals and air bnbs during the dip.

This post was edited by RedFromWinter on Mar 18 2021 07:13am
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#2
Mar 18 2021 07:39am
I haven't been following the US but he average Canadian home price has increased $100,000 in the last 6 months. Our market is white hot.

What is interesting to me is for multiple years now Canada has blamed foreigners for driving up home prices via outside buying. Outside buying has decreased during the pandemic but the turnover in the housing market is higher than ever.

To me that indicates we're seeing a flood of new home owners enter the market due to the lowest interest rates of all time. I can lock in a 5 year fixed rate mortgage for 1.75%.


After COVID I actually see an increase again in demand and prices because foreign buying will pick back up again, although this will partly depend on rates. If rates go up it might quell the demand from domestic buyers.

duffman316
hope you own your place and have a cheap mortgage nothing like huge leveraged appreciation to jumpstart your net worth.

This post was edited by SBD on Mar 18 2021 07:43am
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#3
Mar 18 2021 08:06am
Quote (SBD @ Mar 18 2021 10:39am)
I haven't been following the US but he average Canadian home price has increased $100,000 in the last 6 months. Our market is white hot.

What is interesting to me is for multiple years now Canada has blamed foreigners for driving up home prices via outside buying. Outside buying has decreased during the pandemic but the turnover in the housing market is higher than ever.

To me that indicates we're seeing a flood of new home owners enter the market due to the lowest interest rates of all time. I can lock in a 5 year fixed rate mortgage for 1.75%.


After COVID I actually see an increase again in demand and prices because foreign buying will pick back up again, although this will partly depend on rates. If rates go up it might quell the demand from domestic buyers.

^duffman316 hope you own your place and have a cheap mortgage nothing like huge leveraged appreciation to jumpstart your net worth.



I’m in Atlantic Canada and the housing market out here is insanity. We have huge numbers of Ontario residents relocating to Atlantic Canada because of the “cheaper” prices compared to Ontario. It’s driving the market up big time.
I purchased my house in late 2019 and the market value of my house is up ~55%
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#4
Mar 18 2021 08:09am
Quote (SharpNips @ Mar 18 2021 08:06am)
I’m in Atlantic Canada and the housing market out here is insanity. We have huge numbers of Ontario residents relocating to Atlantic Canada because of the “cheaper” prices compared to Ontario. It’s driving the market up big time.
I purchased my house in late 2019 and the market value of my house is up ~55%


That's excellent if you're already a home owner. Unfortunately those in Nova Scotia and the other Atlantic Provinces suffer from the worst income in Canada and some of the highest tax rates. This will only increase the barrier to entry of home ownership especially with the significant decrease in our labour force going out west to earn higher earnings as a result of a decrease in demand from the oil sands.

My brother being an unfortunate Atlantic Canadian who had to declare bankruptcy as a result of the western downturn.

Are you located near a major centre like Halifax, Fredericton, etc?
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#5
Mar 18 2021 08:11am
purchased some property middle of last year. its up a stupid amount already. people in the neighborhood to sell above market unless they just get a doozy of an offer and/or already have another place to land because even if you do sell where the hell are you gonna live lmao. that said new developments just keep popping up everywhere. renovations took a while because it took forever to get materials

i dont think this is a bubble a la 2005-2007, since this is a demand far exceeds supply issue. it definitely can change quickly.

the govt is useless in this situation. their foolish bureaucratic procedures only end up hurting individual homeowners who rent out units. then some “rich” guy or big company swoops in and takes the units. the original homeowners and renters are screwed (but the latter doesnt know it)

This post was edited by excellence on Mar 18 2021 08:18am
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#6
Mar 18 2021 08:15am
Quote (SBD @ Mar 18 2021 11:09am)
That's excellent if you're already a home owner. Unfortunately those in Nova Scotia and the other Atlantic Provinces suffer from the worst income in Canada and some of the highest tax rates. This will only increase the barrier to entry of home ownership especially with the significant decrease in our labour force going out west to earn higher earnings as a result of a decrease in demand from the oil sands.

My brother being an unfortunate Atlantic Canadian who had to declare bankruptcy as a result of the western downturn.

Are you located near a major centre like Halifax, Fredericton, etc?



I am not, I live in a more rural area. I did however go to university in Fredericton and lived there for 6 years.

You’re bang on about this increasing the barriers of home ownership, I was hesitant to purchase my house when I did and consider myself extremely lucky I followed through on it.

Sorry to hear about your brothers situation, hope he lands/landed on his feet.
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#7
Mar 18 2021 08:21am
Increased demand courtesy of low interest rates.
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#8
Mar 18 2021 08:23am
Quote (SharpNips @ Mar 18 2021 08:15am)
I am not, I live in a more rural area. I did however go to university in Fredericton and lived there for 6 years.

You’re bang on about this increasing the barriers of home ownership, I was hesitant to purchase my house when I did and consider myself extremely lucky I followed through on it.

Sorry to hear about your brothers situation, hope he lands/landed on his feet.


I continue to look at buying a retirement home even in my late 20s just because prices are low, and I can rely on people around the area to care for it while I am not there. Its just unfortunate that the rural areas rental market is horrible unless there's a community college nearby. People who are moving as a result of Covid and other factors outright buy they don't rent since they're coming from another area and have the money.

Atlantic Canada is one of the last few places that has cheap waterfront in Canada. But realistically I won't return home for 5-10 years, and it does not make sense to carry the upkeep with no renter during that time.

This post was edited by SBD on Mar 18 2021 08:24am
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#9
Mar 18 2021 08:59am
Quote (excellence @ Mar 18 2021 09:11am)


i dont think this is a bubble a la 2005-2007, since this is a demand far exceeds supply issue. it definitely can change quickly.


Thinking it will quickly when the locked supply becomes available. Also, everyone claims lending guidelines are stricter, yet I have peers that bought spendy places last year when one of the bread earners is unemployed.

Althought, I'm not sure how many home owners will want to buy extended foreclosures. Often they are beat to shit dumps.
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#10
Mar 18 2021 09:15am
Quote (RedFromWinter @ 18 Mar 2021 10:59)
Thinking it will quickly when the locked supply becomes available. Also, everyone claims lending guidelines are stricter, yet I have peers that bought spendy places last year when one of the bread earners is unemployed.

Althought, I'm not sure how many home owners will want to buy extended foreclosures. Often they are beat to shit dumps.

i mean its stricter than 2005-2007. I remember that everyone was getting into flipping houses, even if they were making working to-middle class wages. People i went to HS with and barely graduated were now working in “real estate” and driving 3-series even though i knew they had to take remedial math courses. of course none of this lasted

unemployment is fairly common right now when the govt is banning people from working in many instances. if a breadwinner was sitting on a pile of cash or had a lot of investments i can see some mortgage brokers saying well okay fine.

homeowners wont want to buy foreclosures but serial flippers will. im sure theres a lot of opportunity to make a ton of loot there
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