Here's jjarv's post:
Quote (jjarv @ Tue, 15 Sep 2009, 11:19)
Yeah, expect that Bernake said the recession is about over and he's not part of the administration. He's simply an expert.
Good rant though, in lue of the facts it almost sounded convincing.
Quick lesson on unemployment
There are 4 types of unemployment
Structural
Frictional
Seasonal
cyclical
Frictional and Seasonal unemployment are constant and harmless. The other two types of unemployment are the problems.
Structural unemployment is a type of unemployment where there are either no jobs avaliable for people or the jobs which are avaliable require skill sets which the structurally unemployed don't possess. This is the basis for our unemployment levels in any economy.
Cyclical unemployment is unemployment related to the health of the economy. It is the reason why our unemployment rate has doubled.
Now, having understood this, you can hopefully see why using cyclical unemployment to rationalize an increase in structural unemployment isn't valid. We've been transitioning to a service based economy for the better part of half a century. In order to measure the levels of structural unemployment, you have to take account of economic indicators when the economy is stable. To this end, unemployment has been relatively stable.
In short, industry jobs being outsourced does not equal higher unemployment as much as it equals lower paying job for the people who previously had the factory jobs, and your forecast of 10% unemployment for the next 10 years is an absolutely laughable prediction.
From this bullshit thread:
http://forums.d2jsp.org/index.php?showtopic=35249551&f=119