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Jun 4 2020 02:00pm
Quote (obisent @ Jun 4 2020 07:05pm)
I’ve been keeping an eye on Adobe, earnings coming up next week and expected to do well.


Their SOFP looks dodgy to me

This post was edited by dro94 on Jun 4 2020 02:00pm
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Jun 4 2020 02:30pm
Quote (dro94 @ Jun 4 2020 04:00pm)
Their SOFP looks dodgy to me


Got more details on this? Im not in atm but looking for an entry b4 earnings are released, don’t mind being wrong on this one if it saves me money.

Can pm.

This post was edited by obisent on Jun 4 2020 02:56pm
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Jun 4 2020 03:28pm
Quote (obisent @ Jun 4 2020 09:30pm)
Got more details on this? Im not in atm but looking for an entry b4 earnings are released, don’t mind being wrong on this one if it saves me money.

Can pm.


In a nutshell, understated deferred revenue. Revenue increased $2.1bn in FY 19, and deferred revenue increased by $447m to $3.5bn. Revenue has increased at a far greater rate than deferred revenue. Maybe if their cloud service sales were a lower proportion in comparison to non-prepaid services it could be feasible but the product mix would have to had changed significantly. The information in their reports I've seen don't go into any detail on this stuff,

Current liabilities increased FY18 $4.3bn to $8.2bn in FY19, primarily driven by short term debt of $3,1bn. Was zero the year before as it was held as a NCL so that debt is due within a year. This is a company with enough cash to pay it so that's not a problem, but usually companies will pay off their debt over time with interest rates being so low, and use their extra cash to increase their productive capacity. Why aren't they doing this?

It doesn't make sense to me, there are no IFRS changes that could be driving such crazy swings in comparative data, the most recent major one was to leases/right of use assets and isn't really relevant to Adobe's business. I mean, they generate a ton of cash and stuff but with the aforementioned concerns and that CAPE ratio, I wouldn't be enthralled at the prospect of investing,
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Jun 4 2020 04:20pm
Quote (dro94 @ 4 Jun 2020 17:28)
In a nutshell, understated deferred revenue. Revenue increased $2.1bn in FY 19, and deferred revenue increased by $447m to $3.5bn. Revenue has increased at a far greater rate than deferred revenue. Maybe if their cloud service sales were a lower proportion in comparison to non-prepaid services it could be feasible but the product mix would have to had changed significantly. The information in their reports I've seen don't go into any detail on this stuff,

Current liabilities increased FY18 $4.3bn to $8.2bn in FY19, primarily driven by short term debt of $3,1bn. Was zero the year before as it was held as a NCL so that debt is due within a year. This is a company with enough cash to pay it so that's not a problem, but usually companies will pay off their debt over time with interest rates being so low, and use their extra cash to increase their productive capacity. Why aren't they doing this?

It doesn't make sense to me, there are no IFRS changes that could be driving such crazy swings in comparative data, the most recent major one was to leases/right of use assets and isn't really relevant to Adobe's business. I mean, they generate a ton of cash and stuff but with the aforementioned concerns and that CAPE ratio, I wouldn't be enthralled at the prospect of investing,


astute analysis my friend! great to see someone else nerd out on numbers like i do
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Jun 4 2020 04:38pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 4 2020 11:24am)
I bought a few shares of Luckin as a lottery ticket before the halt around 4. It Just gapped up to my buy price. You still holding any shares or no? I might just hold them long term because honestly i do see their potential once the accounting scandal is cleared up.


I got 1000 shares at $17 average

thought I was clever getting in at $25

I averaged one time before it got delisted. I am not touching any of this and if somehow In hell it makes it to $11 I might just cut losses so I don't have to look at this anymore.

u see 6/5 expirations today, $4 calls up 10,000% no exaggeration

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Jun 4 2020 04:38pm
Quote (excellence @ Jun 4 2020 11:20pm)
astute analysis my friend! great to see someone else nerd out on numbers like i do


thank you my friend!

Of the many red flags that stop me from investing, the most unusual one I have is to first look at who the auditors are, and if it's Grant Thornton I can't invest. Their audits are not worth the paper it's written on.

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Jun 4 2020 05:11pm
Quote (dro94 @ 4 Jun 2020 18:38)
thank you my friend!

Of the many red flags that stop me from investing, the most unusual one I have is to first look at who the auditors are, and if it's Grant Thornton I can't invest. Their audits are not worth the paper it's written on.

thats a really good way to look at it. and yeah theyre horrible. enron that hasnt been burnt. my first gig i was lucky to get a tremendous amount of exposure to auditors and regulations (was part of an international expansion with a joint venture) and man do these people bend rules like no one’s business.

i am a very simple investor when it comes to equities: i only go long in companies that make things people need and want all the time. and i don’t invest in things i cannot understand from a fundamental perspective and if the math is off i avoid it. that said a few of my “home-runs” have been in pharmaceuticals lmao

This post was edited by excellence on Jun 4 2020 05:20pm
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Jun 4 2020 06:20pm
Quote (dro94 @ Jun 4 2020 05:28pm)
In a nutshell, understated deferred revenue. Revenue increased $2.1bn in FY 19, and deferred revenue increased by $447m to $3.5bn. Revenue has increased at a far greater rate than deferred revenue. Maybe if their cloud service sales were a lower proportion in comparison to non-prepaid services it could be feasible but the product mix would have to had changed significantly. The information in their reports I've seen don't go into any detail on this stuff,

Current liabilities increased FY18 $4.3bn to $8.2bn in FY19, primarily driven by short term debt of $3,1bn. Was zero the year before as it was held as a NCL so that debt is due within a year. This is a company with enough cash to pay it so that's not a problem, but usually companies will pay off their debt over time with interest rates being so low, and use their extra cash to increase their productive capacity. Why aren't they doing this?

It doesn't make sense to me, there are no IFRS changes that could be driving such crazy swings in comparative data, the most recent major one was to leases/right of use assets and isn't really relevant to Adobe's business. I mean, they generate a ton of cash and stuff but with the aforementioned concerns and that CAPE ratio, I wouldn't be enthralled at the prospect of investing,


Thanks for sharing, a lot more detailed than my Adobe is looking to beat earnings so make a bullish move plan.

This post was edited by obisent on Jun 4 2020 06:25pm
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Jun 5 2020 06:38am
May jobless rate at 13.3% when estimate was 19%. Huge positive surprise.

Payrolls rose by 2.5 when estimate was -7.5 mil

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Jun 5 2020 06:39am
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Jun 5 2020 06:42am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Jun 5 2020 08:38am)
May jobless rate at 13.3% when estimate was 19%. Huge positive surprise.

Payrolls rose by 2.5 when estimate was -7.5 mil


Thank god.

I would not bet against the American economy over this.

As long as hes protest don't cause a huge 2nd spike The economy will be blowing up by Christmas.

This post was edited by Skinned on Jun 5 2020 06:44am
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