Quote (excellence @ Mar 1 2020 07:26am)
great post my friend!
thank you my friend! hope we both make a lot of money!
Quote (Saucisson6000 @ Mar 1 2020 08:10am)
Another scenario:
China will force people to go back to work and more deaths will occurs, yet we are not sure if actual China numbers are even true. China lied on its GDP, on its population amounts... It's all build numbers.
Others countries will show real numbers and more likely stop their economies in the same way... Till a certain point then people will finally resolve to "live" (and die...) with the disease, rampant.
Because it cannot be stopped, just curved to avoid a complete chaos spike. All this could happen and would trigger the recession cycle.
China's infection and death count is probably accurate. The only reason we doubted it in the first place was because of a change in diagnosis criteria which led to a spike in infections, but was later reversed, resulting in a decrease in infections.
In countries like Iran the disease will be rampant for sure because they're leaving it unchecked, but from an investing perspective nobody gives two fucks about Iran. The economies with the power to cause a recession or recovery are the US, China, the Eurozone and
maybe Japan.