Update on my thesis
It is important not to forget, volume on spot bitcoin is abysmal, that being said,
in order to create liquidity, big position holders need to create opportunities to
exit their position without causing large price influx, otherwise the print becomes inefficient.
That being said, there is also an argument in the reverse, create
fear to provide liquidity
to fill long positions.
The
primarytrend is
up, since the inception,
secondary trend is
down, we have failed to invalidate the secondary trend with the failure at around 30k.
There are
two local trends, the
daily trend, and the
intra-day trend. The
daily trend is
up, the
intra-day trend is
down.
What does this mean?
The over-all direction for bitcoin is higher, but not before price meets with the bullish invalidation. We have not hit that bullish invalidation in trend IMO. Why do we NEED to hit bullish invalidation? Because that is the best possible price to maintain primary trend.
What makes up the higher time frame trends? What happens on the lower time frames.
In order for this "local daily trend" to continue, they must achieve previous local highs. Have they done that yet? No, Could they do it? Sure.
In order for this "local intra-day trend" to continue, they must fail prior lows. Have they done that yet? Yes, Could they still achieve? Sure.
Probability IMO is 70/30. 70% chance we revisit prices lower in this swing, 30% chance we hold from here, and start achieving levels.
60/40. 60% chance we make new lows, lower than 15.5k 40% chance we hold low into the swing, and start achieving levels.Could I be wrong? absolutely. Does any of this matter? Probably not. Yet we press on, trade accordingly.
Arrows are a representation of what I would like price to do, not what I think it will.
E: Happy fathers day to all the dads out there, and happy slave day to everyone in America.
This post was edited by Keuter on Jun 19 2023 12:48am