Same. Pltr short only thing that kept me green this month
Been doing a real deep dive today
Personally mistimed the February bull trade by a few sessions which was pretty costly but should still be ok.
I think a violent V the next week followed by more bearish strength into April (scenario A below)
Previously I had mentioned first half of March would be bullish but I actually think it’s just going to be this week
Post election year seasonality is giving mixed signals, two scenarios
A. 5th year presidency
-violent V within first week of March before grind down until April before huge rally into mid May
B. Incumbent party loses
-true dead cat bounce hitting nowhere near top of range, then retest bottom after ~week into the month before grinding up until mid May without major drops
IMO it depends how high we go the first week here, spy 608 vs spy 599, 608 is A and 599 is B
For context, this year has followed scenario A more closely so far. First 2-3 trading days will let us know imho
Interestingly there is only one cycle where there is both a 5th year presidency and incumbent party losing which was president Clover in 1893
Should have confirmation on scenario A vs B by middle of March. Either going up by middle of the month which means scenario B and bottom is in until Mid May. Or it continues decline and we are looking for bottom In April first week before rally to mid May starts.
This week regardless of scenario:
Bullish until Tuesday/Wednesday, dropping by Friday
Personal plan
Monday , buy Friday ITM calls
Tuesday:
Sell all my naked calls that I’ve accumulated
Sell covered calls on core holdings
Get rid of swings , coin , msft , 1/4 of amd , google
3/14 puts
Friday by market close:
Cash puts
Buy back covered calls
then patient into weekend until we know if scenario A or B plays out
Basically the only distinction between A and B this week is how high does this market go by Wednesday. Closer to ATH is a later lower low (first week April). A clear Lower high is a closer bottom (2nd week march)
Just my thoughts and my plan, obligatory not financial advice lol
This post was edited by Bazi on Mar 2 2025 10:19am