Quote (eXpLegend @ Nov 2 2024 09:42am)
Yeah, supposedly elections years market rallies year end. Plus the supposed "Santa Rally."
But again, Trump may pull something. But Harris has a lot of lawyers set up already.
Earnings, inflation data, jobs data and GDP are all strong. So I don't think the market is overvalued as people think. Maybe some Mag 7 shouldn't be 30-40 PE. But other sectors still have some PE expansion.
-Earnings are in line/small beats but q3 has largely slashed estimates compared to how the year started
-gdp is below expectation and importantly below longterm average
-inflation is in line but clear moving from the 3% line will be difficult
-jobs are certainly soft and few beats are inflated with gig worker economy
Credit card balances are a big real world indicator which haven’t painted a great picture, especially in the context of weakening macroeconomic data
To be clear I don’t think we are heading toward near term recession or anything, but The market has not priced in any downside risk which I think is rosy eyed
Then you can look at trends such as how many weeks have gone by to test bottom of the range, medium time since your average pull back, semi conductor and Nasdaq weakness in relation to S&P, and positioning
October had a lot of people positioned bearish which I think primarily is why there wasn’t downside
I think fireworks to come before year end
This post was edited by Bazi on Nov 2 2024 08:51am