Quote (dro94 @ Oct 25 2024 12:12pm)
It's not just Goldman, it's most of the investment banks.
American equities have only outperformed in the last 15 years; it has decades of outperformance and underperformance. Now, you can credibly think that will continue, but I don't think there is anything nonsensical about returns being lower in a market where valuations are very stretched vs markets where they are trailing at lower than their long term average.
I personally would not limit investing to the S&P for this reason (plus some other factors like long term economic growth being higher in EM, and extra diversification). My main fund is a global all cap so I'm covered either way.
Why have American markets outperformed?
The same reason American average gdp is always >3% and credit is always maxed
The American consumer is irresponsible, and largely employed
If your base case is NOT recession, I don’t see why American consumers will stop what is genetically engrained in them. The only thing that will stop American markets is unemployment. Otherwise we will spend spend spend even with maxed credit, as history has shown us
I think European markets are a reasonable place but all this Asia hype, I will stay away from
This post was edited by Bazi on Oct 25 2024 11:42am