Gdp down 4.8% q1
Market up still nearly 1.5% to 2% as of this post

unless there are major unforeseen spikes in covid-19 going forward this will be the usual song and dance. how much of the expected downturns in economy activity were already priced into the stock market downfall will be interesting. also will be interesting to see how people react when areas do open up partially and people see just how many small businesses are permanently shuttered (this will not affect the stock markets as much)

i expect more panic in the winter when flu season returns

Can’t fight this fed my spy calls up ridiculous. Gonna keep them open for bit longer , expire next Friday

Nvm selling now Jesus

will short at 300, don’t hve balls to call it to 300

This post was edited by Bazi on Apr 29 2020 08:54am

Grats on the SPY calls

Bought DIS/SPY puts.

Q1 numbers aren't so bad because the virus hasn't reached us until March. People are buying on 'ok' earnings when in reality q2 is going to be a dumpster fire and not sure if that's priced in.

IMO i'm not sure how a forward PE for SPY is justified at around 18x when our GDP went down by 4.8% and who knows what it's going to look like in Q2. There are industries that will take years to come back market is ignoring this imo.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 29 2020 09:07am

There is no justification

Furthermore the notion we are over the peak of coronavirus is absurd.

-Confirmed 1 million cases so far
-let’s multiple by 10 to account for people we haven’t tested and say approx 10 million actual cases
-population of 330,000,000 and estimated virulence of 60-80%
-let’s assume virulence of 40% for argument sake , 132 million Individuals likely to get it

>90% of citizens destined to get it still will. When states attempt to re-open they will actually get hit by it whereas currently in 90% of the states the community presence is just so low. There will be a true peak to come, followed by a smaller one later. When true peak actually hits and states are once again forced with the question of what to do - ( ie shut down again) , I can’t imagine market will react well and what gaps up must gap down.

Realistically the curve may have been flattened in places like NY and Detroit where community spread was >20% already. But in majority of cities/states community spread is still <<<5%. Majority of cities/states haven’t “flattened” the curve, they have paused it. This is where epidemiologists have to come in and give specifics and at what metric shutdowns need to occur at. I agree 100% with shut downs of Detroit and NYC because the community spread was already so prevalent. For the rest, truthfully, we need to let the virus spread to a degree so that citizens are getting it and getting medical attention at a consistent rate. 90% of the country is furloughing healthcare staff because numbers are far too low. A balance needs to be found, which will come when testing picks up to the level which is required


TLDR this market is fake and propped. Since 278 I’ve accepted just roll with it or die standing on principle. >300s if ur gonna short make sure u have long expiration cuz there will be a rug pull but who knows when it will be. Market is still rallying off Remdesivir? Biggest joke in the world considering you have to be hospitalized in the first place to receive this drug and it does nothing to stimulate an economy boost

This post was edited by Bazi on Apr 29 2020 09:22am

so then whats the plan my friend? seems a lot of people have gone from “flatten the curve so the medical industry isnt overloaded” to “stay inside until no one gets sick ever again”

I’m not in charge but it’s a very delicate issue cuz a metro city can turn into a Detroit very fast. From people I’ve spoken to it the consensus is has to be something akin to this

1. Mass community testing to determine actual rate of community spread
2. Determining what arbitrary point at which spread happens very quickly and at that time impose social restrictions/business enforcements

To beat a horse, ok community presence is 1% - don’t shut down because if you keep everyone from going outside it will not rise to a meaningful enough level on its own and when you reopen the same problem will present itself and you’ve just wasted time in the process. If we find that when it’s at 10% it goes to 40% very quickly then that’s a time to impose restrictions.

^ all above numbers are arbitrary, but this is tentatively what I think the approach should be. Handling every city/county/state differently. For example no chance at hell Detroit should be opening yet. Hospitals have been passed max occupancy for the last 2 weeks. With community rate of 20% there and estimated virulence of 60-80% that could turn into a shitstorm very quickly.

Need to learn to live post corona now because it’s a given its community spread and will never be contained, at least this season

Main Arguments against me that I can think of:

1. Far more community spread already and states are in fact over the peek it’s just that asymptomatic carrier population is much larger than anticipated
2. Virulence actually is not 60-80% but a fraction of it and this is the true peak

What you homies think ? Another 3 million jobs gone tomorrow and another 1-2% gap up tomorrow?

Bad news = market goes up. Currently in cash tbh. If I was feeling riskier I’d make a sideways play, sell calls with a decent spread, and let time decay on the calls earn me money.

This post was edited by obisent on Apr 29 2020 02:19pm

Lmao.

As i was watching Powell speak i was in utter disbelief how the market just keeps grinding higher. Like there was nothing positive about what he said. Rates will remain at zero? Great, anyone could tell you that. They will do 'whatever it takes', great we knew that too. What struck me though is he said that this will have significant impact on unemployment and economic output in the medium term, yet the markets went up another .5-1 pp after that.

GDP negative 5% unemployment rate sky rocketing probably will be at 10+% for at least Q2 yet SPY is where it was a year ago. Is this what recessions look like in 2020?