Correct, i should have said i think they'll dump into BTC to offset some of the "losses" that purely holding bonds would cause.

and in reality these are massive algorithm driven funds that are just waiting to pull the trigger with cash set aside, albeit a tiny amount compared to conventional markets. its a self fulfilling prophecy, the bots look for the same market reaction upwards then mass buy which shifts it higher.

i worded it poorly, probably because my focus is really only on crypto, as my retirement account is just a generic TSM index fund that i dont play with at all.

You're conflating two separate things here:



Of course. US companies are making higher profits than ever before and have plenty of cash in the bank. Even so, the S&P 500 P/E ratio of 22 is far below pre recession levels of 60+ or the historical average.



This is fundamentally incorrect. Indexes will buy or sell the market allocation of stocks at the price determined by active traders. Prices are unaffected because you're going by the ask price while buying/selling in the same ratio as the active traders, you don't even know the price until the market has closed. If you were buying shares in a fund you'd affect prices on a relative level because the relative weighting of stocks in some companies would be greater than others, but this is not true of index funds or indexed ETFs.

I would recommend reading Smarter Investing by Tim Hale that explains this concept a lot better than I can.

I think you've just got it in your head that stocks are overvalued and you're making everything fit into that narrative. It's certainly possible stocks are overvalued but your arguments as to why are incorrect.

Just closed my SPY short, not holding this over the weekend even though it’ll probably dump more next week.

what kinda scratch u make dawg?

Not that much tbh, I’m pretty risk adverse when it comes to shorting. Waited a whole week of downtrend before shorting it and only shorted an index. Woulda made a lot more doing it earlier in the week or on individual stocks.

This post was edited by obisent on Feb 28 2020 03:00pm

im like that with BTC. i tell myself im just gonna buy at 3 month lows and sell at 3 month highs, then i think im smarter than the market, rebuy 100$ to try and get cheeky with a short buy/sell of a few days to eek out a 2-5% return (then rinse and repeat). but i mistime it, and end up just holding for months anyways but for less profit.

like this week, when i stupidly bought in at like 9.5 telling myself when it spiked at 10k again i'd dump it and rinse and repeat, and now im holding lol.

ive had like 100$ holding on LTC for fucking 8 months, i wont take a loss but get bored of waiting and invest more. have yet to take a loss on robinhood in 50 or so trades, but plenty of breakevens.

I Averaged down on Disney fuck it. Baba is such a monster , fried 12billion worth of shorts the last 2 days

That's part of the argument, increasing money supply, buybacks & EM or Euro assets being less attractive, et cetera is also part of it. It's really not incorrect and there's proof of it everywhere. Point is if Apple tanks it weighs on the index. If the index tanks Apple's beta is close enough to the market so the individual stock also tanks. No need for semantic arguments.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 28 2020 03:30pm

Ever heard of stoploss? Better to trade alt coins toward BTC with low exposure, or even better to automate trading 24/7/365 against the 180+ pairs on the popular exchanges. Scalp that 1-2% gain daily even in bear market.

you all have much more risk tolerance than me. props

semi-hoping the bloodbath hasn’t recovered in a couple weeks and going in long again, put a bit of a nice injection into my retirement, buy a few tried-and-true blue chips, and a bit of crypto