Quote (S3th @ Feb 11 2023 01:03pm)
I haven't been active here as I have mostly been posting to a different forum. Anyways, wanted to share this market up. This is from one investment banks perspective, I usually take to 3 before developing my own.
Had a market touch base yesterday with one of the top investment banks.
- Federal Funds rate forecast 5.25-5.50 with two more hikes; March & May. No decreases until H1 2024. Current forward SOFR curve reflects this; a week ago, curve was much lower. Prior to the jobs report, market priced in 3% rates by June 2024; now September 2024.
- No recession in 2023; implied none expected in 2024.
- CPI to remain choppy and are expecting a hotter print Tuesday but YoY moderation. CPI comes in hot, expect to see market shift rate expectations/hold longer terminal rate. If CPI comes in better than expected, no market change.
- Reopening China will continue to help dollar sell off. (hot CPI rallies the dollar)
Hey nice post thx for this input
I think China goes both ways - weaker dollar but higher oil prices