Slow bleed until 2023. Oil might keep falling too, lol they predicted 180 a barrel

The whole year been bloody .... this is incredible

If you are a long-term investor then it's actually a great environment. Share count accumulation >

Very true

Unfortunately i invested most $ in 2021 and now bagholding most lol

This post was edited by Pharaohmon on Nov 28 2022 09:01pm

I’m not so sure it’s a ‘great’ environment. Yes, markets are down in the year, but they’re down from ATHs. There also has to be a downward revaluation from lower npv cash flows resulting from higher interest rates, and it’s debatable whether that has been fully taken into account in pricing yet. Earnings are kinda holding up but it’s a mixed bag

Probably because most of us are starting to move to career maturity so we have had more disposable income than ever in our life which means the last few years has probably been when you had the most you have ever had to actually contribute.

I know I am in that boat. All good though.

True true

Regret not cashing out by end of 2020 when my shit was all peaking

But hindsight is 20/20 for sure

Revaluation of lower NPV is based on forward curves which you can view live. If the FED pivots in December, you will see a huge gap up. Long-term rates are still projected to go to ~2%.

There is no pivot before pause lol

Jp has been extremely consistent the last 9 months. Employment remains stable, market remains stable, housing prices remain closer to ATH than to median. Not only is there not gonna be a pivot this month, we are a quarter away from a pause imo. The last thing jpow wants to see is a 5% market rally right here.

50 50 25 rate increases are baked in

Given no meeting in January that takes you to March

Unless something is breaking, there is no validity behind pausing argument and nothing is breaking. Jpow isn’t looking at individual company earnings with policy making

I’m willing to eat my words if this will be wrong.

With all that said, obviously a longterm opportunity

This post was edited by Bazi on Nov 30 2022 07:18am

Today's ADP Job report is bullish. I also think a 50bps increase in December is a pivot vs. 75bps. I don't know where the banks are at with their forecast but I think a 50bps or 25bps are likely and will be rallied on.