lol text book so greedy I should have exited my puts earlier in day when we were flat but held way too long

my expiration is late so I just averaged down my puts end of day, early June expiration

I know it's the value of all future cash flows but during recessions it's logical to have a bear market, especially when valuations are stretched, especially when the impact of this is actually going to leave a lasting effect on many index components. Consumer segments like vacation spending, sporting events, restaurants, etc aren't going to snap back in a month.

Price is a function of earnings. You can't tell me a company like Apple is trading at a fair value when if they would of missed guidance by 10%, their stock price would fall tremendously but now they pull guidance and pretty much everyone and their mom knows their sales will plummet and they are down 13% off their highs? Still trading 35% up from a year ago? Like lol. This is a consumer discretionary company which is cyclical, all logic says they should be going down and not just 13% of their all time highs.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 8 2020 06:44pm

6.6 M claims down from 6.8 m

PPI down by -.2%

Fed opening 2.3 trillion credit lines to states and unis

Expected the claims to be worse than they are. Positive sign imo puts about to get curb stomped.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 9 2020 07:04am

200day avg 2800

We will get there and then down imo, hope we get strong rally to get there today ahead of 3 day weekend

Expected claims were 5mill

I think market just wanted to see an improvement from the 6.8, if it would of gone from 6.8 up, we'd be down today.

I think a ton of smart money is using this rally to dump their shares.

https://finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx?or=-10&tv=100000&tc=7&o=-transactionValue

Check out this weeks trading volume from insiders, no ones buying everyone's dumping. Execs or directors of companies aren't going to be offloading their company shares if they see a rosy outlook.

100% this is being used to offload

I mean the projected was 5 mill so this was significantly worse, 7.5 mill wouldn’t have changed anything we see today. This market just plays these technicals to a T, broke 263 so now we see 280 bla bla. It isn’t a coincidence that Powell times his 2.3 trillion 2 minutes before jobs report.

If Apple missed their guidance by 10% for no good reason, their stock price would fall mainly due to the forecasts for future sales (and therefore, cash flows) would be negatively impacted massively.

However, if that drop in sales happened to due a supply or demand shock and won't have big implications on the present value of future discounted cash flows, their valuation shouldn't change much.

It's just not as simple as 'EPS this year will drop 30%, therefore share price should decrease 20%'. It depends on whether investors think the business is still a going concern and whether their fall in earnings will be permanent.

bought 2k$ of BTC at 4600, just sold it at 7300.

fuck stocks, crypto is the wave of the future you boomers. apple's shrivel and rot, robot language is eternal.

Disposable income is going to take a huge hit for at least half a year imo, that should translate to stock drops in cyclical companies. I think Apple is an amazing company long term and i want to own it but not at 270. Really wish it'd go to 200-230 to jump in.



I bought BTC at 6100, sold some keeping most.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Apr 9 2020 09:17am

the 4500-5000 floor was one of the most transparent floors ive seen on BTC since i started tracking it, and still i was a bit scared it would drop to 4kish and then slow recover. nope, bing bang boom up to 7k. i held a bit longer but now im out until the next floor.