Quote (ofthevoid @ Mar 25 2020 05:50pm)
I had a pretty large position so sold half today at 155 and 171. I knew it would have trouble past 173 since that's Goldman's target price plus i needed to be in more cash.
And yeah i agree, long term this company is still undervalued. They were trading close to 400 pre max issues. The max issues are close to being resolved and they are already looking to bring back production sometime in May if all is well.
If you have a 1-3 year horizon there is no reason for this not to be back in the upper 200s at minimum.
Corner of the market that i'm really considering for a trade is the mREIT space. You have companies like STWD, NRZ - mid cap real estate trusts that got taken to the woodshed and left for dead. People sold these because these are companies that had credit/liquidity risk because if people aren't earning and/or out of work for months then possible rents won't be collected etc. So naturally these companies wouldn't be able to meet their debt obligations. But i think with what the fed is doing now, providing 125 B daily + unemployment going up, i really think some of these are going to rebound Boeing-esque.
Another point to consider is this is the space that gives back very high dividends. As the market calms down, there will be a realization that you're better off buying these types of beaten up reits that have 10%+ dividends trading 1/3 of what they previously were and you might see a lot of capital flow from bonds considering you are getting sub 1% on the 10 yr.
Both of these companies are up like 30% since yesterday. Not sure if i should lock in gains or stick to my thesis. Literally made all my losses back in 3 trades. I still think these are good long term holds, especially when people realize how crap long term bonds are.
This post was edited by ofthevoid on Mar 26 2020 08:10am