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Sep 1 2021 09:32am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 1 2021 09:39am)
Chinese tech continues to bounce hard today.

The spread between S&P large cap tech and Chinese large cap tech has never been wider. In the US we're at historically high valuations for stocks, particularly many tech stocks. I know people are scared and view China as risky but consider the fact that there tends to be a reversion to mean in most things. US is trading at an overwhelming premium in contrast to China and it won't last imo, i'd say it's prudent to buy what's on sale when it's on sale.


Just remember that the rug could get pulled out with literally zero warning if China decides to make profit sharing agreements with foreign companies for the purpose of IPO illegal.
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Sep 1 2021 09:58am
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Sep 1 2021 11:32am)
Just remember that the rug could get pulled out with literally zero warning if China decides to make profit sharing agreements with foreign companies for the purpose of IPO illegal.


The VIE structure is a risk, but I don't think China would fuck with foreign investment that way. It would be self cannibalizing. Like as a country you wants billions flowing into your country and being put to work. If you damage that, then it's bad for business, bad for Chinese jobs, etc.
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Sep 1 2021 09:59am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 1 2021 10:58am)
The VIE structure is a risk, but I don't think China would fuck with foreign investment that way. It would be self cannibalizing. Like as a country you wants billions flowing into your country and being put to work. If you damage that, then it's bad for business, bad for Chinese jobs, etc.


China forcefully turned the entire for-profit tutoring industry non-profit.

They will do what they want and the market will have to adjust around it. There's ways to get money in without IPOs and those would become more important, but it wouldn't crash the entire economy, meaning it's on the table as a possibility.

This post was edited by NetflixAdaptationWidow on Sep 1 2021 10:00am
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Sep 2 2021 10:57am
PLTR on a steady up train. If we cross over $27 we're gonna fly, same as Ethereum did this week. That damn $27 has been a stopping point for several runs like this, so in a month we're likely to either be at $23 again, or way up in the 30's.
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Sep 2 2021 11:34am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 1 2021 04:58pm)
The VIE structure is a risk, but I don't think China would fuck with foreign investment that way. It would be self cannibalizing. Like as a country you wants billions flowing into your country and being put to work. If you damage that, then it's bad for business, bad for Chinese jobs, etc.


They're already hammering their own tech industry in order to make their political system futureproof to tech and AI advancements, so you may want to rethink applying the rational capitalist mindset to every scenario

I still think Chinese stocks are good for the long term, I just hold a China ETF to diversify the risk somewhat
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Sep 2 2021 03:12pm
Quote (dro94 @ Sep 2 2021 12:34pm)
They're already hammering their own tech industry in order to make their political system futureproof to tech and AI advancements, so you may want to rethink applying the rational capitalist mindset to every scenario

I still think Chinese stocks are good for the long term, I just hold a China ETF to diversify the risk somewhat


If I could invest without the risk of having the rug pulled out from under me I'd definitely buy. Hell, I'd just copy what Cathy does.
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Sep 2 2021 03:41pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Sep 2 2021 05:12pm)
If I could invest without the risk of having the rug pulled out from under me I'd definitely buy. Hell, I'd just copy what Cathy does.



So would many if this was the case. A company like Baba wouldn’t be trading under a 20 pe but more like a 35 pe.

I get your concern but there’s some level of confidence following the big boys. For example this is what black rock said recently. If the fund that has 9 trillion under management is saying this and adding to their China exposure I’ll throw in some money based on this, based on China growth, based on PE, based on the fact that the east will literally be the economic & tech center of the world.

https://www.ft.com/content/f876fb63-1823-4f4b-a28f-faa7797aa49c

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Sep 2 2021 03:42pm
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Sep 2 2021 04:06pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 2 2021 04:41pm)
So would many if this was the case. A company like Baba wouldn’t be trading under a 20 pe but more like a 35 pe.

I get your concern but there’s some level of confidence following the big boys. For example this is what black rock said recently. If the fund that has 9 trillion under management is saying this and adding to their China exposure I’ll throw in some money based on this, based on China growth, based on PE, based on the fact that the east will literally be the economic & tech center of the world.

https://www.ft.com/content/f876fb63-1823-4f4b-a28f-faa7797aa49c


I will never buy into the idea there is some level of confidence following the big boys without your own research. If I don't have some indication that BlackRock has significant sway over the CCP to avoid a rug pull their opinion means nothing to me.
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Sep 2 2021 06:33pm
Quote (NetflixAdaptationWidow @ Sep 2 2021 06:06pm)
I will never buy into the idea there is some level of confidence following the big boys without your own research. If I don't have some indication that BlackRock has significant sway over the CCP to avoid a rug pull their opinion means nothing to me.


Blackrock is one data point I pointed too, not the sole one, nor did it replace any research. I've been a believer of investing in China stocks for quite awhile now.
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Sep 2 2021 06:34pm
Quote (ofthevoid @ Sep 2 2021 07:33pm)
Blackrock is one data point I pointed too, not the sole one, nor did it replace any research. I've been a believer of investing in China stocks for quite awhile now.


My concern is not about if Chinese stocks are good investments. I think you'd have to be pretty dumb to think that China isn't going to grow massively over the next 10 years.

The concern is that since we can't own them the rug could be pulled out at any time. Without a security that the rug pull won't happen I'm not interested, at least until I get a much larger account. I have far more ideas than money right now, so there's no shortage of American stocks to invest in.
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