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Feb 19 2021 10:11am
Quote (Bazi @ Feb 19 2021 09:49am)
looking good so far


Added PLTR.

Just looked at the chart and am kicking myself. I had it on watch list on RH and if I had seen it drop to 25 yesterday I'd have gotten in that shit in a second. I need to set up my watch lists again. I have some in IBKR (which is trash) and some in WeBull right now. WeBull is feeling good, but RH is definitely the king of ease of use.

Oh well. Can't win them all.
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Feb 22 2021 09:43am
Started buying Apple last week.

Bought more today. This pullback is finally giving me a chance to get into this name.
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Feb 22 2021 10:13am
Quote (Thor123422 @ Feb 18 2021 01:38pm)
Thor buys 1 share of GME at $20. The broker that holds my shares (Robinhood) loans my share out to Melvin. Melvin pays Robinhood 1% of the share price every week until they give it back. Melvin sells the share for $20 to John, who is also a Robinhood customer.

Melvin borrows John's share from Robinhood at $18 and sells it. So now there are 2 shares shorted, but it was the same share.

This process repeats enough times, with Robinhood's customers buying shares from Melvin and Robinhood loaning them out to Melvin, that Melvin owes Robinhood twice as many shares as exist in the market. The process of selling more shares than actually exist (by borrowing them from Robinhood) has driven the stock down to $4.

(In reality Melvin is multiple firms and Robinhood is multiple brokers)

Several weeks go by and GME is at $30 because retail investors are buying and Robinhood has raised its fee to 5% per week. Melvin has to give Robinhood 5% per share, and the price is double what its borrowed its shares at, so they are losing 10% of their short profits every week, and if they wanted to buy it back they would be paying twice as much.

Next week GME is at $300. You buy a share at $300 and hold.

Melvin is now paying 5% of $300 per share. One week eats all of their profit. Next week eats into the rest of their portfolio.

3 weeks go by with GME above $100, and Melvin has virtually exhausted all of their reserves. They can't pay Robinhood the interest on the loaned shares, but they also can't buy them back for 10x the price they sold them at. They're sunk. Melvin files for bankruptcy.

Robinhood gets a letter saying Melvin no longer exists. Melvin owed Robinhood 300 million shares of GME.

Everybody who has shares of GME being held by Robinhood owns shares, but Robinhood doesn't have them. Uh oh.

Robinhood now has to buy 200 million shares of GME. Only 100 million shares of GME exist. They start putting in buy orders at $200, but nobody sells.

They put in a buy order at $500 and get some hits, but the price moves up.

They put in a buy at $1000 and get some more, the price moves up.

They still need to cover 150 million shares NOW.

Robinhood's books are showing that they owe 150 million shares at $1000 each. <-- This is where everybody sells, and Robinhood has to continually buy it at whatever price the market sells it for.

The banks who have loaned them money, who gets to see Robinhood's books at any time to assess risk, call them on the fact that they owe their clients more in GME shares than they are worth as a company.

Robinhood can no longer get a loan because they are worthless as a company.

Robinhood owed the bank 100 billion dollars it was using as operating funds.

The bank shows a loss of 100 billion dollars because Robinhood is definitely not going to pay that back.

That bank owed another bank 80 billion dollars. That bank sees an immediate loss of 80 billion.

Continue down the chain with everybody taking losses.

The financial system basically collapses because all of the brokers defaulted on their loans all at once


We were almost at the bolded step, which would have destroyed the system. The little guy gets paid or the system crashes around them.

But instead they changed the rules.


never responded, ty for the long form explanation. at the end of the day im a bit glad the system didnt collapse, especially as most likely scenario is a govt bailout.
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Feb 22 2021 10:34am
Quote (thesnipa @ Feb 22 2021 11:13am)
never responded, ty for the long form explanation. at the end of the day im a bit glad the system didnt collapse, especially as most likely scenario is a govt bailout.


The thesis thor highlighted is not quite correct. The float available is only just a small fraction of the available shares. The reason the stock price wouldn't have gone to 1000+ is that the vast majority of shares are held by institutional players like Blackrock, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.

So this notion that short-sellers would be forced on that Monday to buy at higher prices in some endless loop is wrong because short positions can be rolled to future dates and they would just have to pay some % per 3 days or whatever to borrow shares from institutions that have like 60% of all shares.

Here is a list of who owns most shares:

https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.html?symb=GME&subView=institutional

These were the real winners of the Reddit saga.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 22 2021 10:35am
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Feb 22 2021 10:55am
Quote (ofthevoid @ Feb 22 2021 10:34am)
The thesis thor highlighted is not quite correct. The float available is only just a small fraction of the available shares. The reason the stock price wouldn't have gone to 1000+ is that the vast majority of shares are held by institutional players like Blackrock, Vanguard, Fidelity, etc.

So this notion that short-sellers would be forced on that Monday to buy at higher prices in some endless loop is wrong because short positions can be rolled to future dates and they would just have to pay some % per 3 days or whatever to borrow shares from institutions that have like 60% of all shares.

Here is a list of who owns most shares:

https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.html?symb=GME&subView=institutional

These were the real winners of the Reddit saga.


Shorts can be continually rolled but it costs to do so. The idea was that the short borrowers would have basically gone out of business on the higher stock price and the higher fees.

And who holds the shares is not particularly important because the shorts so drastically outsized the available shares. The institutional investors that owned the shares certainly won out in this situation, but so would have the retail investors if the rules hadn't been changed to basically force them to stop buying and start selling.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Feb 22 2021 10:55am
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Feb 22 2021 12:54pm
I'm not seeing any bargains right now except maybe Europe. Give me some suggestions if I'm wrong
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Feb 22 2021 01:01pm
Quote (dro94 @ Feb 22 2021 12:54pm)
I'm not seeing any bargains right now except maybe Europe. Give me some suggestions if I'm wrong


BTC

and ZOM is still pre-sales.
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Feb 22 2021 01:09pm
Quote (thesnipa @ Feb 22 2021 07:01pm)
BTC

and ZOM is still pre-sales.


Not getting into BTC
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Feb 22 2021 01:27pm
Quote (dro94 @ Feb 22 2021 01:09pm)
Not getting into BTC


LOL BOOMER

if anything eth and link are likely a better Longterm anyways.

although ETH is open source, and binance just copy/pasta'd their code for the BNB coin that just mooned. so im a bit skeptical long term on eth because im not smart enough to know if that matters.
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Feb 22 2021 01:30pm
Quote (dro94 @ Feb 22 2021 02:09pm)
Not getting into BTC


Large-cap tech plays. Not necessarily a bargain but a solid trade IMO since so many of them are taking it on the chin. People think with the yield curve rising, it will suck money out of the safe-havens i.e. large-cap tech but in reality, the fed will come out with some sort of yield curve control because we simply cannot afford rising rates when the economy is still fairly weak.

I'm getting into Apple now. It still trades at a premium but they're masters at deploying capital. VR is the next hot thing and as more details get leaked about their premium VR set the stock will do well. Long term hold for me imo.

I posted about Lockheed a few pages back as well. Favorable valuation, dividend, etc. Lots to like with some of the space initiatives they're taking.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Feb 22 2021 01:37pm
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