Dow Jones Base Jumping - Topic

Member

Posts: 44,260

Joined: Jun 22 2007

Gold: 2,680.00

Mar 16 2020 06:35pm

Quote (Bazi @ Mar 16 2020 08:23pm)

Right now

240 3/25 spy put
228 2/25 spy put
100 4/9 dis put
94 4/9 roku put

Have all these positions since 3/10, can pm /text u pics

Friday I took a huge hit but I held. Still holding, I think bottom is 1800, that’s the 45% correction and the charts point to strong technical strength there

If this was april/may and virus had already hit us , and market was 2400, I would bet on rally from that support but we are just too far away from the worst of this imo. My money clearly where my mouth is

Didn’t even buy shares here at 2400 despite it being such a strong support, waiting til 2100 or less

If I’m wrong I’m wrong, this is what I think.

Don’t have to prove anything, thanks for sharing. A few weeks ago I woulda thought 2000 was the bottom, now I’m not so sure. 2k is a major psych number and we’re in for a rough time if it breaks, mass layoffs haven’t even started happening yet.

Probs for having/holding short positions far out and doing specific stocks, I usually exit mine within a day. Also looked into a bunch of news for companies to go short on and ended up playing it safe with an index put.

This post was edited by obisent on Mar 16 2020 06:48pm

Bazi

Member

Posts: 41,215

Joined: Apr 14 2006

Gold: 4,288.71

#262

Mar 16 2020 06:48pm

Quote (obisent @ Mar 16 2020 07:35pm)

One thing I’m really really nervous about is vega crush

Right now volatility is all time high, all options will be crushed if it stabilizes.

Like tomorrow for example, I’m sure it will be a typical turn around Tuesday, but I don’t want it just chilling around this 2400 level. Would prefer a large rally and drop vs a limp trickle down

ThatAlex

Member

Posts: 12,379

Joined: Jul 14 2008

Gold: 2,620.00

#263

Mar 16 2020 06:56pm

Today was a horrible day, but not necessarily a bad political outcome for Trump here. The economy probably needed a readjustment (albeit not nearly this much), and now everything can be placed squarely on the Coronavirus.

obisent

Member

Posts: 44,260

Joined: Jun 22 2007

Gold: 2,680.00

#264

Mar 16 2020 07:00pm

Quote (ThatAlex @ Mar 16 2020 08:56pm)

This is a good angle, the incumbent usually eats the blame for a shitty market, even if it’s not their fault, and a market correction was expected to happen.

excellence

Member

Posts: 53,368

Joined: Sep 2 2004

Gold: 57.00

#265

Mar 16 2020 07:48pm

Quote (ThatAlex @ 16 Mar 2020 20:56)

Quote (obisent @ 16 Mar 2020 21:00)

This is a good angle, the incumbent usually eats the blame for a shitty market, even if it’s not their fault, and a market correction was expected to happen.

the market was looking for an excuse to correct and it got two. A virus that that started in (and ravished and is now dying down) China and is now a pandemic ravishing parts of Euope and global markets. And an all-out oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

either of these on their own was enough to correct, both at the same time well, Bill Maher was cheering for a recession and he just might get one, the coward.

This post was edited by excellence on Mar 16 2020 07:49pm

xrmd

Member

Posts: 34,374

Joined: Dec 27 2010

Gold: 13,840.01

#266

Mar 16 2020 07:49pm

Quote (ThatAlex @ Mar 16 2020 08:56pm)

I will say, as a new investor, losing all progress I made since I started 3 years ago really fucking hurts. Eating away the principle now.

However I need to stay the course and stick to my plan. Going to be keeping my normal index funds and with some of my spare money (not from savings) I'm going to get a little risky to see if/when the stock market returns, my picks can pull back those losses quickly.

excellence

Member

Posts: 53,368

Joined: Sep 2 2004

Gold: 57.00

#267

Mar 16 2020 07:51pm

Quote (xrmd @ 16 Mar 2020 21:49)

you’ll be fine, times like these teaches many the necessary lessons of the long-haul.

Bazi

Member

Posts: 41,215