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Nov 13 2020 02:58pm
Been selling calls and puts on BCRX since it's been so volatile and seems to have a sturdy floor. I think it's gonna say between 3 and 5 for the foreseeable future, and 30-60 day calls are selling for anywhere between 0.4 and 0.7. Sold 4$ put 12/18/2020 at 0.65 two weeks ago and bought back to close at 0.4 today.

Playing options on volatile stocks with a stable floor is just like printing money lol. Worst case is you hold the bag and continually decrease your basis with calls every month until an exit point.

This post was edited by Thor123422 on Nov 13 2020 02:58pm
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Nov 13 2020 03:01pm
Quote (SBD @ 13 Nov 2020 15:57)
Followed by FDA approval and reversal of the dip.


oh of course its like shooting fish in a barrel lol. lockdown announcement —> move to bonds or cash for a week or two FDA announcement —> lol buy equities
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Nov 13 2020 03:11pm
Quote (excellence @ Nov 13 2020 02:01pm)
oh of course its like shooting fish in a barrel lol. lockdown announcement —> move to bonds or cash for a week or two FDA announcement —> lol buy equities


I have a lot of excess margin just waiting. Could bite me not using it now, but I am fully exposed on non borrowed money.

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Nov 13 2020 04:15pm
Quote (SBD @ Nov 13 2020 02:57pm)
Yeah, I hold some still from pre pandemic purchased in October of 2019 after some pullback after the initial Disney + hype died off. Its been pretty stagnant for me since I had not been dollar costing down during Covid for that particular stock (theme parks is a lot of idle assets).

Despite its + segment the stock should be declining in reality. A years worth of amortization and no income to show for it. I'm more attuned to mining but the concept remains the same. If you told me suddenly were going to lose 1-2 years of income generation from our dump trucks, crushers, etc. My eyes would be bulging. Same thing for a farris wheel or a roller coaster. You plan all of these assets based on an expected return over the assets' life expectancy. Right now there's no certainty to when that expected return will be generated again.


The depreciation and amortisation is irrelevant really. It will be charged over x years regardless with no cash or tax implications. The long term value of a company is unaffected as the cost incurred now is offset against no depreciation/amortisation in a future year when the NBV of the assets is zero.

I actually think under GAAP Disney could categorise their theme parks and accompanying intellectual property as 'shut down' and therefore all depreciation and amortisation would cease...but under IFRS they would need to be assets held for sale or disposed of.

The main impact on Disney is the extra debt they are/will have to take on to weather an indefinite period of loss-making and the cost of finance associated with it. They were already heavily geared pre covid.
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Nov 13 2020 05:25pm
Quote (dro94 @ Nov 13 2020 03:15pm)
The depreciation and amortisation is irrelevant really. It will be charged over x years regardless with no cash or tax implications. The long term value of a company is unaffected as the cost incurred now is offset against no depreciation/amortisation in a future year when the NBV of the assets is zero.

I actually think under GAAP Disney could categorise their theme parks and accompanying intellectual property as 'shut down' and therefore all depreciation and amortisation would cease...but under IFRS they would need to be assets held for sale or disposed of.

The main impact on Disney is the extra debt they are/will have to take on to weather an indefinite period of loss-making and the cost of finance associated with it. They were already heavily geared pre covid.


Sorry, I probably wasn't clear. I am not focusing on the amortization / deprecation itself. I am focusing on that you have idle income generating assets. They have an expected return over their life expectancy, that return is with debt factored in. It was not focused on a non-cash expense.


On a side note RioCan is trading at a decent discount. Still had 96% collections. Cinplex and Goodlife tenants are concerning as well as some restaurant brands.

H&R REIT too. Both took big fair value adjustments on properties resulting in a loss on the year (assuming the ideal year to take a bath). Operating cash flow from both are comparable to pre-covid periods, occupancy remains high.

Both look pretty attractive right now to me.

This post was edited by SBD on Nov 13 2020 05:50pm
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Nov 14 2020 07:46am
Is anyone invested in Tattooed Chef or have any thoughts on them? I've got a few friends that are thinking of investing in it and asked me for advice on them, but I don't really know the company.

I did a bit of research and said I wasn't really convinced, highlighting the following points:

- Their revenue growth is impressive but massive growth is already priced in to their valuation
- Their products aren't as unique or differentiated as they think. Strong competition from Beyond Meat, with new entrants like McDonalds entering the market which has low barriers to entry
- Gross margins are low, at around 16%, and it's decreasing. Why? Would require huge revenues to generate sizeable profits
- Potential signs of overtrading judging from the low cash balance coinciding with an uptick in receivables and AP. Difficult to say as I don't have much to go off with the company being founded last year
- More of a subjective point, but I don't like the fact they went public when they hadn't even cleared $50m of revenue. It makes me think the owner just wanted to cash out and that seems to be the case with her giving way to a Board and now having an unclear role in
the business


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Nov 15 2020 01:13pm
Quote (dro94 @ Nov 14 2020 07:46am)
Is anyone invested in Tattooed Chef or have any thoughts on them? I've got a few friends that are thinking of investing in it and asked me for advice on them, but I don't really know the company.

I did a bit of research and said I wasn't really convinced, highlighting the following points:

- Their revenue growth is impressive but massive growth is already priced in to their valuation
- Their products aren't as unique or differentiated as they think. Strong competition from Beyond Meat, with new entrants like McDonalds entering the market which has low barriers to entry
- Gross margins are low, at around 16%, and it's decreasing. Why? Would require huge revenues to generate sizeable profits
- Potential signs of overtrading judging from the low cash balance coinciding with an uptick in receivables and AP. Difficult to say as I don't have much to go off with the company being founded last year
- More of a subjective point, but I don't like the fact they went public when they hadn't even cleared $50m of revenue. It makes me think the owner just wanted to cash out and that seems to be the case with her giving way to a Board and now having an unclear role in
the business



Bro we ask u the questions not other way around
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Nov 16 2020 08:59am
Stocks go up. I certainly do not regret picking up Southwest at 32 bucks a share.


To bad Tyson Foods has beat expectations multiple times, and yet I am just hitting breakeven again. Oh well, long hold, fast food will re-open.
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Nov 16 2020 09:23am
Quote (SBD @ 16 Nov 2020 09:59)
Stocks go up. I certainly do not regret picking up Southwest at 32 bucks a share.


To bad Tyson Foods has beat expectations multiple times, and yet I am just hitting breakeven again. Oh well, long hold, fast food will re-open.


it will be interesting to see the balance of announcements of shutdowns vs positive vaccine developments

several US states moved back into lockdown mode over the weekend. stocks no care

This post was edited by excellence on Nov 16 2020 09:23am
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Nov 16 2020 09:48am
Quote (excellence @ Nov 16 2020 08:23am)
it will be interesting to see the balance of announcements of shutdowns vs positive vaccine developments

several US states moved back into lockdown mode over the weekend. stocks no care


Yeah, I had just mentioned Riocan and HR last week, both REITS up 5-8% today. The Brookfield I dumped into last week while it was down is up significantly.

I am just going to try to ride the redistribution from tech to other areas.

I don't have the stones to go long Suncore though. My first investment ever many years ago was oil and gas. I still hold it as a reminder of what trying to catch a falling knife is like (-69.41%).


This post was edited by SBD on Nov 16 2020 09:52am
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