Well Fuck you disney

Yeah, I hold some still from pre pandemic purchased in October of 2019 after some pullback after the initial Disney + hype died off. Its been pretty stagnant for me since I had not been dollar costing down during Covid for that particular stock (theme parks is a lot of idle assets).

Despite its + segment the stock should be declining in reality. A years worth of amortization and no income to show for it. I'm more attuned to mining but the concept remains the same. If you told me suddenly were going to lose 1-2 years of income generation from our dump trucks, crushers, etc. My eyes would be bulging. Same thing for a farris wheel or a roller coaster. You plan all of these assets based on an expected return over the assets' life expectancy. Right now there's no certainty to when that expected return will be generated again.

This post was edited by SBD on Nov 13 2020 09:03am

The only good disney stock is the one ur grandma gave u at age 10.

for real tho they do surprisingly mediocre for a company that has a marvel, starwars, natgeo & disney streaming platform.

Disney is a good long term buy IMO. I bought in at 120. They have a very large basket of intellectual property that they can create quality content for decades. I also think they're the type of company to do extremely well post covid. There will be massive pent up demand for their parks with families and foreigners putting off travel for over a year.

Yeah I mean will hold, my gripe was about how they have had multiple good quarters (relatively speaking) despite closed parks and they cannot hold on to any gains whatsoever

Sure but good relatively speaking I don't think justifies trading at a share price above pre-covid levels when your theme parks and total future return on capital has been significantly slashed since they're sitting idle.

Stocks trading at multipliers above their pre-covid levels like the world is a better place toady than it was 9 months ago is absurd. This future earnings and trend world we live in is crazy. Toss a dart at an EV stock, pile money into anything tech even if its never made a dollar in 10 years.

I think there's some complacency and were getting too used to just seeing these big green numbers on earnings without context.

I made this same case about Disney about 6 months ago. I actually made a little money on Disney with puts at that time. The thesis changed though seeing how the market responded to their terrible earnings.

As far as the point about stocks trading at higher multiples I agree, that things seem more expensive now but this to a large extent ignores the fact that most currencies and fixed income assets have been destroyed over the last year. You have to look at it from that perspective. What are you going to hold your wealth in? Bonds when the 10 year is at 89 basis points? Dollar when it's down over 6% YoY? So in many ways, money is forced to go hunt for a return because there are no better stores of value.

I honestly think we are in an era when we will have multiple expansion diverging from historical norms because of this QE environment.

This post was edited by ofthevoid on Nov 13 2020 12:53pm

Opening up some monthly spy puts at close to hedge

lot of optimism right now

another shutdown will smack the major indices down 15-20%. otherwise choo choo!!

Followed by FDA approval and reversal of the dip.

This post was edited by SBD on Nov 13 2020 02:57pm