Just curious what all of y’all think on this

They overplayed it, market is propped up by like 3 companies and has been for 9-12 months

Separate point though, stocks aren’t necessarily the economy

12 months ago despite mag 7 carrying, there wasn’t really a doubt the fed needed to be tight still

Fair enough but as we stand it isn’t pretty. Firms are downsizing or stopping hiring all over so not good either, consumer debt sky high, despite what they may say about inflation we all know it’s still stupid high.

I think they staved off downturns but it doesn’t look good now coming to a head with global turmoil and a tumultuous election season incoming

Yeah recession is certainly not off the table

Really will know in the next 6 or so months if the fed can maintain this expansion cycle by timing rate cuts or if they waited too long to cut

I voted for the latter, idk why they didn’t at least start cutting with 25 basis points now . They just gonna do 50-75 later on

I think they’re leveraging for future seismic events. Tbh I do think J Powell has been extraordinarily solid in a very difficult spot but even he isn’t a magician

Time will tell but if i had to bet.. i would bet they are a bit late to cut rates and we will roll into a mild recession

Market will panic again if they dont cut rates in August and then unemployment goes up more

Last jobs report was a bit more reassuring

But I’m definitely of the camp of gradual changes rather than shock 75-100 basis point moves

Like obviously 5 is too high longer term, you can dial it back 25 points without substantial inflation fears

I think the whole system is teetering. Stock market growth is inflated by a few companies. Underlying economy shows a weak job market. Warren Buffet is holding a large cash position. US Presidential election is around the corner. Yen carry trade shows the overall fragility and jumpiness. I think people are waiting to see how the cookie crumbles. Personally I think it will get worse before it gets better.

And the day has come, 25 or 50 points we will see

The more important thing now is the projected fed dot plot