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Apr 5 2023 01:20am
Stocks closed higher on Friday, higher for the week, and higher for the quarter.

On Friday, the Dow was up 1.26%, the S&P was up 1.44%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.74%. For the week, they were up 3.22%, 3.48%, and 3.37% respectively. For the quarter, the Dow was up just 0.38%, but the S&P was up 7.03%, while the Nasdaq was up a whopping 16.8%! And that was the Nasdaq's best quarterly gain since June of 2020.

Relief that the worst of the banking scare is behind us helped lift stocks. So did the previous week's bullishly interpreted FOMC announcement where they raised rates by just 25 basis points, and hinted that there could be one more 25 bps hike to go, and then they would likely be done.

The rally was punctuated by Friday's better than expected Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index which showed inflation rising at a more modest pace than estimated. For the month, the headline number was up 0.3% vs. last month's pace of 0.6% and views for 0.4%. On a y/y basis it was up 5.0% vs. last month's 5.4% and the consensus for 5.1%. The core rate (ex-food and energy), was up 0.3% m/m vs. last month's 0.6% and views for 0.4%. On a y/y basis it was up 4.6% vs. last month's 4.7% and the consensus for 4.7%.

Friday's better than expected PCE index mirrored the better than expected results of the CPI and PPI reports that came out earlier in March.

Granted, we'll get three more inflation reports before the next FOMC meeting on May2-3, not to mention another Employment Situation report. But so far, inflation looks to be on the decline, the economy is holding up well, and it appears we are nearing the end of the rate hike cycle, with a likelihood of cutting sometime next year. And all of those things are bullish.

In other news, Friday's Chicago PMI improved to 43.8 vs. last month's 43.6. That was under the consensus for 43.9, but improvement is improvement.

Consumer Sentiment, however, slipped to 62.0 vs. 63.4 and views for the same. A bit strange given the better than expected Consumer Confidence report which came out just a couple of days before.

But all in all, it was a fine day, and fine week of reports.

Today starts a whole new week, month and quarter.

Let's see how they shape up. But if we could see a repeat of the three we just went thru, that would be pretty exciting.

Quite frankly, given all of the positives in the market right now (that have been largely ignored until recently), not to mention the favorable seasonals in store for 2023, there's a good chance that we could see the type of gains we just saw repeated throughout the rest of the year.
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