used 213 for about 10 attempts and failed the lot, mostly fdf's. 123 worked for me twice in a row on the same day.
Not done that many attempts with monks as it's annoying to climb with and i'm trying to get some more drops, which means solo


I would suggest it doesn't matter what you do, I would probably recommend sticking to whatever you do.
It's like rolling a dice and you want the quickest way to be correct. If you choose the same number over and over, it feels more likely to happen than if you guess every single dice throw.

Mathematically it doesn't make any difference what you do. you have a 1 in 720 chance.
If that scares you, just remember all the other alch's have that horrendous chance too

On the plus side, there's a 25% chance you'll have already passed before you reach 210 MQ's on your alchemist.

Good luck Ant!
Do a single 361452 for me, (the chances suggest it'll be a fdf, but as i said, they're all equal anyway)


now i'm running away cos i used maths and izparagoni has seen the topic.
If you're wondering why i didnt say 29% or more ( 210/720 = 29.1667%), you need to remember that you can have 720 attempts and not pass. Theoretically even on a feeder class. So using attempts/(amount of keys)! isn't correct. If you didnt understand the !, dont argue please, if you understoof the !, then you probably already know the maths.

This post was edited by mclarke on Feb 12 2019 11:36am

Just stick to one set pattern of keys, like myself and some others.

When kirby (guild i am in) members were more active, it was funny how they would do like 15+ runs with 1 key set in mind and fail on 4th door, so then they change it just once and boom, failed... and they rage about changing it because if they stuck with what they normally used, they would have passed.

That is Murphy for you.

for some reason one of the keys always appears shinier to me, so i pick that one

You are shinier to me! So I pick you!

Don’t worry mclarke. Even if Rex thought that Ant passing at 210/720 meant the chance to pass was 29%, we still have the raw data, so we can analyze the pass rate ourselves. If we weren’t convinced that the pass rate was 1/720 either, we could just have Ant run more trials. By probability theory, the more trials we run, the closer we get to the true %. Maybe by the time Ant has 15 or 20 resets we’ll be within a couple % of the true value

I like those comments. No, I have to say that Murphy rules the odds for using the correct key, I never use calculation when it comes to Murphys' Law.

It is an interesting thought if the game manipulates the pass rates.

For How many of the completed Resets had less than 500 attempts from all the alchs? In theory that's your 50% value, so would be intriguing to look through, unfortunately i dont think the numbers are kept anywhere as even the attempts arn't kept separate.

If the amount is significantly above half, then perhaps the chance isnt 1/720

No idea about that... and for this topic... truth be told I don’t actually believe that what you pick is just the key... I believe you pick the right key at the right time

Say the correct key is the right key... but you take a whole second to decide that it’s right... by then maybe the left key is right and you picked the wrong key at the right time (or the right key at the wrong time) ... oh no, I’ve gone cross-eyed.

Sooo what your really trying to sayyyyyyyyyyyyyyy is!!??!