Quote (izParagonzi @ Dec 14 2023 01:08pm)
Actually you are incorrect to some point (don't get me wrong, I practically agree to some of the points you made).
Now, it is more likely that a Tier I item will (or has dropped) with perfect stats, but have never been kept or posted, and in 99.99% has been shrined or left to disappear and not picked up when it dropped.
Why do I point this out, it is simple... lower Tier items have a higher drop rate and also a higher chance of drop quality over the years the game as been around.
Hey, you can find a ton of Tier I items dropped at higher levels ... even when doing a 101 run just like now during this Prof Competition... luckily I don't follow the sheep, or herd them, and I have proven my points in the first 24 hours of the competition to know what the fudge I am talking about in this game.
If people want to see what the OP is requesting to be posted, then the OP just needs to look at the "Overspawn" thread from day one:
https://forums.d2jsp.org/topic.php?t=79249898&f=272This was started in 2018 after certain updates, however, people posted a ton of junk items ... i.e Tier I + ... so, this would give a bit more information of some items that were recorded.
Sure, I wasn't considering Tier 1 items, but thats a good point since many stats on a tier 1 have a max roll of 1, so if they roll that stat its automatically "perfect." But, I still think you're underestimating how rare it is still. I'm bored, so I will crunch some numbers real quick.
I will make the assumption that any stat is equally likely to roll as another stat. Ie; EE is just as likely to roll as Max life or any other.
So, we have a total of 38 possible stat "types" that can roll on an item. Of these 38 possible types, 19 have a maximum roll of 1 on tier 1 items - ML, EES, CS, Life Regen, Mana Regen, Life Steal, Damage Return, Mind Numb, Armor Pierce, Block, Critical Flux, Phys Red, Mag Red, QD, -Mana Consumption, Mana Skin, Power Shot, Glancing Blow, Jubilance.
Since there are 38 possible stat types, and a Unique item has 12 stat types, we can say there are
C(38,12) =
2,707,475,148 possible sets of Unique items (each has a different and unique combination of stat types).
However, we are only interested in the ones roll 12 out of the 19 stat types that have a max. roll of 1. So, there are
C(19,12) =
50,388 combinations possible that roll the right item stats.
50388/2707475148 = 1/53,733
What this means is when we roll a unique t1 item, there is a 1 in 53,733 chance that the item will have 12 stats which all have a max roll of 1 meaning it is automatically a perfect t1.
Even rolling a unique item is exceedingly rare though, I've yet to come across a single one (even t1) in over 700k LS kills. Lewy just posted in storm discord a few days ago that he just got his first ever unique item and he has well over 3m LS kills. What does that mean for the drop rate of uniques? We have to make a big assumption here, but I think it would be fair to say that the chance is no less than 1/10k and more likely it is a lot higher than that; 1/100k or more.
If the chance of rolling a unique is 1/10k then for every t1 dropped, there is a total of 1/537,330,000 chance of it rolling a perfect unique.
At 1/100k this jumps up to 1/5,373,300,000.
considering there has only been 1.3b TOTAL items dropped (not just t1 items), its fair to say it is very unlikely that any perfect unique item has ever dropped. Obviously these numbers aren't perfect, we have to make some assumptions here, but it gives you a ballpark idea of just how rare they would be.
Once you stop considering t1 items and move to t2+ where no stat type has a max roll of 1, the odds get so incomprehensibly small that the chance isn't even worth considering. A perfect t1 item MAY drop at some point in time, but its preeeeetty unlikely.
Sorry for the full on nerd out, I can't help myself when it comes to stats.