Chances Of Getting A Magical Item For Example - Topic

schmoogalaboo

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#21

Nov 2 2009 09:30pm

Quote (croell @ 2 Nov 2009 18:56)

Okay let say we all go back - then we will only be hit 1/3

actually, if you had a full group, it should be 1/5

croell

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#22

Nov 4 2009 10:54am

Quote (schmoogalaboo @ Nov 3 2009 04:30am)

actually, if you had a full group, it should be 1/5

hehe lol

jlhromeo

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#23

Nov 4 2009 12:00pm

Quote (izParagonzi @ Nov 2 2009 05:58pm)

Here are some Random numbers:... fill in the whitespace

CodeMag Rar Mys Ang Myt Arc Leg Epi Rel Art Uni
TierI 50% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 05% 0.95% 0.75% 0.5%
TierII 35% 33% 28% 23% 18% 13% 08% 03% 0.75% 0.5% 0.25%
TierIII 30%
TierIV 25%
TierV 20%
TierVI 15%
TierVII 10%
TierVIII 05%
TierIX 0.95%
TierX 0.75%
TierXI 0.5%
TierXII 0.25%
TierXIV 0.15%

this is closer than anyone else's guess... still seems high, but good job rex, neatly done. who knows if it is correct, but it seems WAY closer than a 1% chance to find uniques... -_-

This post was edited by jlhromeo on Nov 4 2009 12:00pm

J_B

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#24

Nov 4 2009 12:08pm

1/(2+mods)
so 1/2 plain
1/4 magic
1/8 rare
1/16 mysical
etc

croell

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#25

Nov 4 2009 04:59pm

Quote (jlhromeo @ Nov 4 2009 07:00pm)

this is closer than anyone else's guess... still seems high, but good job rex, neatly done. who knows if it is correct, but it seems WAY closer than a 1% chance to find uniques... -_-

15/100 will not be legendary !

J03SL4YS

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#26

Nov 4 2009 05:02pm

Quote (derDrops @ Nov 2 2009 06:56am)

do ur own statistics and surprise us with the result

this

croell

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#27

Nov 4 2009 05:04pm

Quote (J03SL4YS @ Nov 5 2009 12:02am)

this

takes years.. just if somebody knew?

izParagonzi

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#28

Nov 4 2009 05:05pm

Quote (croell @ Nov 5 2009 10:59am)

15/100 will not be legendary !

Quote (jlhromeo @ Nov 5 2009 06:00am)

this is closer than anyone else's guess... still seems high, but good job rex, neatly done. who knows if it is correct, but it seems WAY closer than a 1% chance to find uniques... -_-

______________

Just for fun... I might take a gander at working on some numbers for lower level / Tier items and drop counts.
Might get something useful from it... or just waste my time... which is all in all good

croell

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#29

Nov 4 2009 05:12pm

Quote (izParagonzi @ Nov 5 2009 12:05am)

You are right... but I have definately found alot of "Legendary" TierI items in Arena from level 1 to level 15.
I think that in one set of tries... I got around 8... next time I do this... I might actually keep a tally.

The table was just Guess work... which jesse pointed out:

______________

Just for fun... I might take a gander at working on some numbers for lower level / Tier items and drop counts.
Might get something useful from it... or just waste my time... which is all in all good

0,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001E% chance of finding an unique item imo.

This post was edited by croell on Nov 4 2009 05:12pm

iin77

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#30

Nov 4 2009 05:57pm

Quote (J_B @ Nov 4 2009 12:08pm)

1/(2+mods)
so 1/2 plain
1/4 magic
1/8 rare
1/16 mysical
etc

You mean 1/2^(mods+1)

First off, that doesn't add up to 1. Second, the chance of an item dropping from each monter is 1/4 iirc, so the chance of a unique dropping from each monster would be 1/32768, and I don't think it's that common.

Anyway, that seems right for 0-4 mods, based on when I cataloged item drops back when I felt like doing that... Of course it could have changed.

Quote (njaguar)

Couple other minor updates, and a partial fix to welling, should give rares more often than magical now (about 50/50). Still evaluating welling, and watching the numbers.

And welling's different, ofc.

But it's pretty much pointless to think about when it could change with each update without njaguar even telling us.

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