decided to include the HC guys in the end, the 1k is really for anyone whos played during this SC season no matter the core, so the past few months and completed 1 MQ or whom i know have done a reasonable amount of muting (think only 2 people fell into this category).
I think the only 1 who hasn't MQ'd which is on the list is Unicoke (excluding muters), which i will let slide as they've got 489 GP's for laby and I was in laby at one time. The rules were mostly to ensure only slashers had a chance rather than the general public.



Anyway, statistics time:

Total attempts on alch: 87
Total attempts pre-prizepool : 29
Total attempts using prizepool combos: 58

Attempts for the first key:
First key: 11 attempts, 1x second door.
Second key: 12 attempts. All FDF. RIP
Third key: 9 attempts. All FDF. RIP #2
Fourth key: 9 attempts. All FDF. RIP #3
Fifth key: 7 attempts. 1x SDF. 1x 4DF
Sixth key: 10 attempts. 4x SDF. 1x 5DF

Chances of me reaching second doors as often as i have with the above stats:
Chances of failing the first key 10 times and 1x 2df or better: 35% (forgotten how to do the maths here i believe it's this, there's 11 ways at which this can happen, (1x 2nd door 10xfdf , 1x fdf 1x 2nd door then rest fdf, etc till, 10x fdf, 1x sdf), so this is (1/6) to power 10 * (5/6) * 11
Chances of failing the second key 12 times in a row without going through a door: 11% (5/6 to power 12)
Chances of failing the third key 9 times in a row without going through a door: 19% (5/6 to power 9)
Chances of failing the fourth key 9 times in a row without going through a door: 19% (5/6 to power 9)
Chances of failing the fifth key 5 times and 2x 2df or better: 23% (I believe 21 different ways this is possible. Therefore 1/6 to power 2 * 5/6 to power 5 * 21)
Chances of failing the sixth key 5 times and 5x 2df or better: 0.3% (I believe 46 different ways. 1/6 to power 5 * 5/6 to power 5 * 46)


So the big question of how lucky am i:
Chance of reaching the 2nd door or better each attempt: 1/6. Expected amount in 58 attempts : 10. How many i've received: 8
Chance of reaching the 3rd door or better each attempt: 1/30. Expected amount in 58 attempts: 2. How many i've received: 0
Chance of reaching the 4th door or better each attempt: 1/120. Expected amount in 58 attempts : 50% chance. How many i've received: 2
Chance of reaching the 5th door or better each attempt: 1/360. Expected amount in 58 attempts: 1 in 6 chance. How many i've received: 1
Chance of reset each attempt: 1/720. Expected amount to receive in 58 attempts: 1 in 12 chance. How many i've received: .... guess?

Getting 1x 5th door appears in 60 attempts is as likely as passing your samurai in 1 attempt, So i think this luck is actually reasonably average. Certainly due a few third doors but the 5DF probability kinda averages it out.


Was surprised to see how likely it was to fail 9 and 12 times in a row, makes me feel a little bit better about not getting a single SDF for those keys.


Would be interested if someone could correct any incorrect math with explanation or if you agree that it's correct.
Just looking again, pretty sure i've done the 0.3% 6th key attempt wrong and the chance is much higher, likely to be around 4%

This post was edited by Bigheaded on May 29 2020 09:27am

WOW That is one impressive post you have created.

Just made me wonder if you had done a climb instead of typing all that stuff,
maybe that would have been the time you passed??

Math looks good btw -- but don't forget, you are dealing with Mother Randomette here ,
who is most likely being coached by Murphy

probably but only if i could locate a full group at this time, which is usually unlikely or at the very least a slow group.


Thanks for the support on the maths but reasonably sure i can prove the 0.3% 6th key is wrong which makes me question the 5th key math also. The other 4 are correct as they're much easier.

Can't see a site which explains this very well though and i'm unsure i can relocate my old maths A level stuff.

As some idea of how far out I was, there's 252 combinations (i just googled 5 heads out of 10 coin flips)
So the 0.3% chance is actually a 1.3% chance of receiving 5 fails and 5 passes from 10 attempts. Thankfully most of the calculation was correct, just had an incorrect number of combinations.

I have just completed the entire list and restarted from the start.

Prizepool attempts:
123465 - Slushslush FDF May 4 2020 01:01am FDF Jun 2 2020 02:51pm <--first one to get attempted twice
213456 - Horadric_Pube FDF May 4 2020 08:31pm
132465 - Wynx FDF May 4 2020 11:41pm
345216 - Ladd3r FDF May 5 2020 01:44am
312465 - mizK FDF May 5 2020 07:50pm
426135 - Jizzin FDF May 5 2020 09:37pm
231546 - 3oDAtlas FDF May 5 2020 11:25pm
135246 - SouthernComfort FDF May 6 2020 10:01pm
213546 - fzy fdf May 7 2020 01:14am
523614 - JakeTheDog fdf May 7 2020 09:46pm
341256 - Pick FDF May 7 2020 11:29pm
654321 - ahs_darkhunter SDF May 8 2020 01:39am
321456 - bodierox FDF May 8 2020 03:46am
364125 - KoKaNe FDF May 8 2020 03:44pm
635142 - Paparick FDF May 9 2020 08:34pm
612543 - ~Devil~ FDF May 11 2020 09:54pm
123654 - DOHtrader FDF May 12 2020 12:05am
314265 - Razo FDF May 12 2020 01:46am
642531 - Cheeya FDF May 12 2020 03:35am
435621 - Carny FDF May 12 2020 09:12pm
143562 - Justin SDF May 12 2020 10:30pm
654312 - Underrated SDF May 12 2020 11:51pm
135624 - NR1 FDF May 13 2020 01:35am
453162 - sWiMnZ FDF May 13 2020 04:26pm
642315 - k.iMpacT FDF May 13 2020 05:45pm
231456 - izParagonzi FDF May 14 2020 09:16pm
142536 - d3skjet FDF May 14 2020 10:34pm
531246 - rgc213 FDF May 15 2020 12:29am
624135 - pwb3 SDF May 15 2020 01:35am
563214 - Madmartigan FDF May 15 2020 09:21pm
324156 - Skywalker FDF May 16 2020 12:20am
456321 - UnknownX FDF May 16 2020 01:50pm
465231 - tigre900 FDF May 17 2020 07:04pm
162534 - Light_Prince FDF May 17 2020 11:47pm
514236 - eekzie FDF May 18 2020 01:09am
256431 - HIGHFIELD FDF May 18 2020 06:18pm
154362 - Bob888 FDF May 18 2020 07:35pm
413256 - Soroush FDF May 18 2020 09:35pm
231465 - XnaadgeHc FDF May 19 2020 12:38am
456123 - LouisCyphre FDF May 19 2020 10:35pm
615234 - Dorgan 5DF May 20 2020 12:55am
246351 - Andrea94 FDF May 20 2020 02:15am
263541 - griffti6 FDF May 20 2020 03:21pm
213465 - TiM FDF May 20 2020 05:31pm
213645 - Roses FDF May 21 2020 12:14am
312645 - jans8705 FDF May 21 2020 01:33am
613245 - LabattBlue FDF May 24 2020 01:51am
615243 - Kn0ck0ut SDF May 25 2020 03:07pm
216354 - JonWon FDF May 26 2020 06:03pm
521643 - ddevin SDF May 26 2020 08:43pm
234156 - Tummz FDF May 26 2020 10:30pm
561234 - ShoKella 4DF May 27 2020 12:05am
134652 - Cardano FDF May 27 2020 01:32am
341625 - q^p FDF May 27 2020 06:26pm
165432 - n1ghtm4r3 FDF May 27 2020 11:39pm
463215 - CARTRACK FDF May 28 2020 12:53am
461325 - DeeArk FDF May 28 2020 10:42pm
543126 - Chestk FDF May 29 2020 01:05am
563241 - Also FDF May 29 2020 06:54pm
351624 - Unicoke FDF May 29 2020 09:20pm
543612 - chinczaPL FDF May 30 2020 03:34pm
623145 - bootytheplumber FDF May 30 2020 06:16pm
231645 - phatshadow FDF May 31 2020 02:06am
345162 - GunslingerOfOld FDF May 31 2020 07:29pm
165243 - Kalandra FDF May 31 2020 09:12pm
123564 - Chipper10 FDF Jun 1 2020 09:09pm
153462 - Neverdies FDF Jun 1 2020 11:09pm
453261 - schmoogalaboo FDF Jun 2 2020 02:00am

any new additions will be added to the bottom of the list and attempted after i've gone through everyone a second time (about 60 attempts from now)

2 attempts away from completing 100 alchemist MQ's this season.

Good luck everyone again!

465231 - tigre900 FDF May 17 2020 07:04pm oh! this was fail? hmm xD try again! hahahaha

645123

on this one occasion i'll slot you in where your combo was in the original listing which is just after jizzin. Thanks for the new combo and for joining in

ty and gl!

214563

I know that feeling, right when I failed my GF came out of the shower cause she was scared of me screaming like that in the apartment