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Mar 20 2006 03:19pm
Quote (Schlag96 @ Mon, 20 Mar 2006, 15:17)
Here's another thought:

My odds of winning the powerball are 1 in 146,107,962.

If I buy 1 ticket for 1 dollar and the starting jackpot is (at the lowest) 8 million dollars, then I get a roughly 1 in 18 return on my money.  (chance of making back my dollar)

Now, assuming a (again, at the lowest) 1000 fg prize,
Odds of 1 in 42840 gives me an expected return of .02334 fg.  This costs me 5 fg, so for each fg I expect a return of .004669 fg. 
Thats a 1 in 214 return on my money.

So this lottery provides a return on investment 12 times worse than the powerball.

I'm just saying it's a fun idea but really is a sinkhole that some younger/more naive members may not realize how bad the odds really are.


I haven't checked your numbers, so I can't comment on that.

However, I have stated that additional features will be considered in the future, such as matching the first/second numbers, and things like that. This feature has been live for like 8 hours now, for crying out loud, so please cut me a little slack? I want to make sure other key issues are fine before loading it up with a bunch of features that will confuse the hell out of everyone, so that they never even look at this again.

[edit]I am willing to sacrifice a little bit of "base payback" for the sake of BETTER odds, and not having a lottery that takes 3 years for someone to win. I'd rather see a winner a day, at a lower "payout %" than one where your odds of winning are literally almost 0.
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Mar 20 2006 03:25pm
Paul, like I said, it's a fun idea it just needs a couple odds tweaks to make it not a ripoff. Like making only 20 numbers and cutting the price to 1 fg. That kind of thing to balance out the odds versus cost. Don't be offended please. I like the idea and I'm trying to help you make it successful.

EDIT: I can run the numbers some more, to figure out a good range of numbers that would make payouts more common and keep the price and prize the same.

This post was edited by Schlag96 on Mar 20 2006 03:28pm
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Mar 20 2006 03:25pm
Quote (Schlag96 @ Mon, Mar 20 2006, 04:17pm)
I'm just saying it's a fun idea but really is a sinkhole that some younger/more naive members may not realize how bad the odds really are.


I think njaguar should post the odds of getting the jackpot on the lotto page since most people can't figure out how to properly calculate the odds. sad.gif

1:42840 is a lot better than the 1:46656 and other inaccurate values people keep posting. I believe someone said earlier in another thread the odds were 1:250000ish. laugh.gif
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Mar 20 2006 03:26pm
Quote (Schlag96 @ Mon, 20 Mar 2006, 15:25)
Paul, like I said, it's a fun idea it just needs a couple odds tweaks to make it not a ripoff.  Like making only 20 numbers and cutting the price to 1 fg.  That kind of thing to balance out the odds versus cost.  Don't be offended please.  I like the idea and I'm trying to help you make it successful.


I 100% disagree with that. I have to weigh the costs of adding 1923189239801398012 gold logs to the site, vs. providing some "entertainment". 1fg gold logs out the yang will take a toll on the site.

Please see my above comment. The payout now is greatly higher than the "base", since the amount won is over 5x what the BASE amount is.
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Mar 20 2006 03:27pm
Quote (~Korea~ @ Mon, 20 Mar 2006, 15:25)
Quote (Schlag96 @ Mon, Mar 20 2006, 04:17pm)
I'm just saying it's a fun idea but really is a sinkhole that some younger/more naive members may not realize how bad the odds really are.


I think njaguar should post the odds of getting the jackpot on the lotto page since most people can't figure out how to properly calculate the odds. sad.gif

1:42840 is a lot better than the 1:46656 and other inaccurate values people keep posting. I believe someone said earlier in another thread the odds were 1:250000ish. laugh.gif


I already editted my first post to include that.
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Mar 20 2006 03:29pm
Very very cool,
Thx Paul
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Mar 20 2006 03:30pm
Quote (njaguar @ Mon, Mar 20 2006, 04:27pm)
Quote (~Korea~ @ Mon, 20 Mar 2006, 15:25)
Quote (Schlag96 @ Mon, Mar 20 2006, 04:17pm)
I'm
just saying it's a fun idea but really is a sinkhole that some
younger/more naive members may not realize how bad the odds really are.


I
think njaguar should post the odds of getting the jackpot on the lotto
page since most people can't figure out how to properly calculate the
odds.sad.gif

1:42840
is a lot better than the 1:46656 and other inaccurate values people
keep posting. I believe someone said earlier in another thread the odds
were 1:250000ish.laugh.gif


I already editted my first post to include that.


Oh, I didn't notice your edit. I still think it should be posted on the actual page, since not everyone participating in the lotto will bother to read this thread. sad.gif
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Mar 20 2006 03:31pm
I plan to have a FAQ page similar to the Guild FAQ page.

Any volunteers to create one for me? wink.gif
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Mar 20 2006 03:33pm
I don't know aobut the lottery, I spent 20 fg and lost, It doesn't look like its a thing that gets won a whole lot. but with all the members they have to make the 20 numbers .
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Mar 20 2006 03:34pm
Quote (njaguar @ Mon, Mar 20 2006, 04:31pm)
I plan to have a FAQ page similar to the Guild FAQ page.

Any volunteers to create one for me? wink.gif


Meh, I'll give it a try. wink.gif
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