Hello,

So I have this curious idea. I'd like to know if any of you guys have any prediction algorithms that might take into account the history of a binary roll. Forgive me if I'm not making myself clear, I'm not quite sure on how to best convey the idea.

My idea is say I have a random engine that simply has a 30% of rolling an 1, and a 70% chance of rolling a 0.

Given the sequence, from left to right, 010010000 I imagine that a 1 should come near given an inspection of the sequences time history. Are there any standard ways or suggested ways one might predict the next binary digit based on a finite history and the probability of each digit?

yes, by disregarding the history and just looking at the probability of the digit. 70% chance of rolling a 0, 30% change of rolling a 1. in a truly random engine, it does not depend on the previous digit.

there is some concept in psychology where humans have a tendency to apply the ratios to small sample sizes. there's also some kind of gambler's fallacy which is under the similar umbrella.

or are you talking about pseudo-random numbers generated by a computer following some algorithm? which is a different topic altogether.

This post was edited by carteblanche on Feb 5 2017 09:53am

Ultimately the numbers would be pseudo-random in application but my question is on a truly random engine. Hmm I ought to look up this gamblers fallacy.

Thanks for the response.