Quote (Troll @ Dec 18 2016 08:01pm)
what is the % chance to kill a 2hp minion with arcane missile? (only 1 minion on board)
seems like a stupid question, but my brain is full of fuck atm
http://i.imgur.com/IQXQASF.pngas you can see i'm pretty horrible when it comes to math :wallbash:
It's 50%
There are at face value 8 possible outcomes each with 12.5% chance of occurring
X = minion hit
Y = face hit
XXX
XXY
XYY
XYX
YYY
YYX
YXY
YXX
This is because there is a 50% chance for each missile to hit either target, so for a specific outcome of 3 missiles it's 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%
However, the XXX outcome (3 minion hits) cannot occur because if the first two missiles hit the minion the third hits face with 100% probability (because the minion is dead so can't be hit). So to calculate the probability of that event occurring you do 50% (chance for first missile to hit minion) * 50% (chance for second missile to hit minion) * 100% (chance for 3rd missile to hit face) = 25%.
In other words the "XXY" outcome is twice as likely as any other because the final missile is guaranteed to hit face, so there are only two 50% events rather than three.
So the actual possible outcomes are:
XXY (25%) KO
XYY (12.5%)
XYX (12.5%) KO
YYY (12.5%)
YYX (12.5%)
YXY (12.5%)
YXX (12.5%) KO
Adding them up, that's a 50% probability of killing the minion, 50% of not.
This post was edited by Voyaging on Dec 18 2016 07:38pm