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Dec 17 2016 09:42am
Quote (JVMorrow @ 17 Dec 2016 10:24)
do one of them give the frog shaman grllp?


wtf is that ?
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Dec 17 2016 11:12am
Quote (Jaina @ 17 Dec 2016 10:42)
wtf is that ?


skin for the shaman grrlp
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Dec 17 2016 12:24pm
does prince malchezeezar need to be in my hand for the legendaries to get added to my deck? or just in my deck
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Dec 17 2016 12:45pm
Quote (JVMorrow @ Dec 17 2016 01:24pm)
does prince malchezeezar need to be in my hand for the legendaries to get added to my deck? or just in my deck



Just in deck
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Dec 17 2016 01:01pm
Quote (JVMorrow @ Dec 17 2016 01:24pm)
does prince malchezeezar need to be in my hand for the legendaries to get added to my deck? or just in my deck


In deck cards ass though.
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Dec 17 2016 01:52pm
ok how do i get grllp the frog shaman!?
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Dec 17 2016 06:33pm
Quote (JVMorrow @ Dec 17 2016 02:52pm)
ok how do i get grllp the frog shaman!?


Recruit a friend and they get to total level 20.
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Dec 17 2016 08:57pm
grllp
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Dec 18 2016 07:01pm
what is the % chance to kill a 2hp minion with arcane missile? (only 1 minion on board)
seems like a stupid question, but my brain is full of fuck atm



as you can see i'm pretty horrible when it comes to math :wallbash:

This post was edited by Troll on Dec 18 2016 07:11pm
Member
Posts: 63,058
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Dec 18 2016 07:21pm
Quote (Troll @ Dec 18 2016 08:01pm)
what is the % chance to kill a 2hp minion with arcane missile? (only 1 minion on board)
seems like a stupid question, but my brain is full of fuck atm

http://i.imgur.com/IQXQASF.png

as you can see i'm pretty horrible when it comes to math :wallbash:


It's 50%

There are at face value 8 possible outcomes each with 12.5% chance of occurring

X = minion hit
Y = face hit

XXX
XXY
XYY
XYX
YYY
YYX
YXY
YXX

This is because there is a 50% chance for each missile to hit either target, so for a specific outcome of 3 missiles it's 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%

However, the XXX outcome (3 minion hits) cannot occur because if the first two missiles hit the minion the third hits face with 100% probability (because the minion is dead so can't be hit). So to calculate the probability of that event occurring you do 50% (chance for first missile to hit minion) * 50% (chance for second missile to hit minion) * 100% (chance for 3rd missile to hit face) = 25%.

In other words the "XXY" outcome is twice as likely as any other because the final missile is guaranteed to hit face, so there are only two 50% events rather than three.

So the actual possible outcomes are:

XXY (25%) KO
XYY (12.5%)
XYX (12.5%) KO
YYY (12.5%)
YYX (12.5%)
YXY (12.5%)
YXX (12.5%) KO

Adding them up, that's a 50% probability of killing the minion, 50% of not.

This post was edited by Voyaging on Dec 18 2016 07:38pm
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