I know it is, I never claimed otherwise. It's far more complex. But knowing the probability is still an essential part of the decision.

The example you gave is spot on and I completely agree.



This isn't the case at all. There are loads of situations where knowing the exact probability should inform your play.

Though yes the ultimate in Hearthstone optimization would entail estimates of winning odds for different plays. We as humans can't do that of course, but we can at least approximate it, with the assistance of tools.

This post was edited by Voyaging on Nov 8 2015 07:07am

Give one example where knowing exact odds would change your play.

Knowing the odds are never useless. There have been plenty of times where my decision boiled down to "if I make this play than my opponent has 1 top deck that will win him the game, but otherwise I win."

The best part of the deck tracker is seeing when he got/played cards. Ain't no buddy got time to pay attention to all that.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I feel like using a deck tracker is a crutch. I'd rather use my knowledge of the game (not saying you don't have the same or better knowledge, just a generalisation) to make the best plays.