I have 2 Flamestrikes in my deck. I have drawn 13 cards in my deck and have 7 cards in my hand, never having played a Flamestrike.

What are the odds of me having a Flamestrike in hand? What are the odds of me having 2 Flamestrikes in hand?

This post was edited by Voyaging on Nov 8 2015 02:36am

Yes it is obscure, you are right ^.^ noboday will ever be able to separate those 20 cards in several packs to do statistics

This post was edited by GodBless on Nov 8 2015 02:44am

Dunno what your post meant completely, but if you're conceding, and agreeing that virtually no player can accurately calculate all of the relevant and important statistics in the 90 seconds of their turn without the help of software, thank you.

Whether you have one or two, my game plan was already built by the time you had 13 cards left. I'm most likely playing around it if I'm mid range, or not playing around it if I'm control. Also pending current board status.

The basic stats though, especially of your own deck as opposed to the opponent, it isn't necessary whatsoever to use a program to track. I know my fractions 1/30-29/30, so I know what I may or may not draw. I know this isn't your argument, so I hope you don't take it as a slight, however I feel like a deck tracker is unnecessary.

Watching some of the top players, they can identify a deck within 3 turns. So with that said, having a deep intuition of the game like godbless and many others have will lead you to know what you're playing against/around.

Your argument, if I'm not mistaken, is that the statistics a deck tracker provides which tell you your opponent's chances of having a particular card will not improve your winrate.

I can say with certainty that this is not true, as there are frequently situations in which you have to determine whether or not to play around a certain card or combination of cards, and in which you need to know the odds of your opponent having the card(s) you're considering playing around.

You even said "I'm most likely [already] playing around it", in other words you already chose whether or not to play around a card without the requisite information for determining whether or not you should have been playing around it in the first place. I think your post actually specifically highlights the weakness of most players, in that they play around cards without recognizing the actual probability of the opponent having the card(s). This is a giant mistake.

These are the small differences which separate good players from elite ones.

Maybe you guys just aren't understanding the specific statistics deck trackers provide:



This post was edited by Voyaging on Nov 8 2015 03:14am

you re an arrogant fuck
godbless is one of the most impressive players ive ever met and played with and you re clearly not trying to understand his point of view

yet you re full of shit cause he can actually count the cards by himself and knows what turn corresponds to one card, and trust me not with only one deck ;D

I never claimed he was a bad player, or even that I'm better. I merely explained that there are relevant statistics a deck tracker can provide that no human is capable of accurately calculating in the allotted time of a turn. Even the best player of the world would improve his win rate by using a deck tracker.

you read statistics
if no human can deal with the statistics of a software , HOW can you improve?

The human can read the statistics they just can't calculate then quickly enough is what I mean.

Deck trackers are an excellent tool for improvement by teaching you risk assessment which is one of the biggest skills that separates good players from great.

Determining whether to play around a card (or a combination of cards) is more complicated than knowing what are the odds of opponent having them in hand.
Sometimes you should play around 4 card combo that has < 1% probability (innervate/savage roar x 2/FoN, when you are going to win in 2 turns regardless of what you do), and sometimes you can't play around 96.6% (for example, when you can't win unless Gromm is your opponents last card).

So unless you can calculate odds of winning the game for different game plans and different cards in your opponents hand, knowing exact odds of your opponent holding particular cards is useless.