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Feb 14 2017 08:08pm
Quote (FroggyG @ Feb 14 2017 07:53pm)
Winning tournaments, yes. That's luck in Hearthstone.
Win rate over a large amount of games, however, is a valid argument because of the law of large numbers.


Tournament wins long term is exactly proportional to win rate.

Pavel has played enough professional matches for his expected win rate to come close to converging on his actual win rate, and this win rate is the main reason he's had so much tournament success.

This post was edited by Voyaging on Feb 14 2017 08:28pm
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Feb 15 2017 05:23am
Quote (Voyaging @ Feb 14 2017 02:00pm)
Thanks for putting words in my mouth and attacking a strawman.

"strawman" :rolleyes:

Quote
I already explained that I was being hyperbolic calling Amnesiac trash. Pavel is clearly a significantly better player than him though.

No, thats your opinion. Its far from clear.

Quote
Pavel's ban and deck strategy was extremely well thought out and he's done it at multiple tournaments now with extraordinary success.

Yes i recognize a professional player put thought into his strategy and that he has had success.

Quote
The fact that Amnesiac can't wrap his head around it alone suggests that Pavel understands the game on a far deeper level (deck choice, building, and ban strategy being by far the most important part of tournament success, and Pavel being maybe the best in the world at it).

More subjective opinions and declarations.

Quote
Pavel is also a better player because over a sufficient sample size he has a vastly better win rate.

Over 169 matches, Pavel has a 72.2% win rate.
Amnesiac, over 48 matches, has a 62.5% win rate.

In order to match Pavel's win rate, he'd need to win over 75% of his next 100+ matches (a higher win rate than anyone in the world).

You copypasta'd the argument from a pleb reddit thread, using bad statistics that I have already undermined.

If you used my HCT point tournament win rates and compared them to championship win rates, id look fantastic relative to many pro players too.
In reality the competition is typically way lower in those tournaments.

Quote
You don't get a win rate on 500+ games like that on a fluke. You get it by making incredibly good deck and ban choices and playing well.

At Blizzcon, Pavel went 12-1 vs Druid, including both of his reverse sweeps. You think that was a fluke? No, he specifically built his lineup and decks to target Druid. Dark Arakkoa in his Druid, C'Thun Warrior, Water Elemental in Mage, etc. Nearly every one of his match wins played Druid.

At HCT he built his decks extraordinarily well for the meta and banned properly. He went I believe 9-0 vs Pirate Warrior (thanks to his building defensive decks strong against it as well as double Mortal Strike in his own Pirate Warrior). He specifically didn't target Reno decks (and only faced one, talk about good decision making). Nearly every one of his match wins played Pirate Warrior.

Suggesting he got very lucky and misplayed at times is not saying he only succeeds on flukes or that he is a terrible player.
There is more than enough room for both of those to be true. (reasonably good and incredibly lucky at key times)

Quote
Pavel is the better player, possibly the best player in the world right now. Amnesiac is a good but not top tier professional, with a substantially smaller conceptual and strategic understanding of the game, and both his statements and results corroborate that.

His results indicate he is a top tier player with many great ladder finishes and quality tournament results, including being the NA champion, and also would have finished top 4 or better at worlds if not for Pavel sucking out on him.
'Not top tier' and previously calling him "trash" is based more on your emotions about him than anything else.

Quote
I don't know if anyone is as good as Pavel at meta prediction and countering in a tournament. The fact that Amnesiac, a player who regularly makes inferior deck and ban choices, has the nerve to attack his superior for his ban choices is telling of how good Amnesiac really is.

Pavel won 3 major tournaments because he's a master of deck selection. Amnesiac keeps losing and getting pissy because he isn't.

You keep asserting he is the far superior when its just not the case. You keep using the 3 wins as circular logic to claim hes way better.

This post was edited by cambovenzi on Feb 15 2017 05:29am
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Feb 15 2017 06:11am
Quote (cambovenzi @ Feb 15 2017 05:23am)
You copypasta'd the argument from a pleb reddit thread, using bad statistics that I have already undermined.


I read that too and thought it sounded awfully familiar
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Feb 15 2017 06:52am
Expanding on my earlier criticism of the gosugamers statistics,
Here is a look at some of the matches gosugamers tracked for Pavel:

Gosucup open HCT point tourneys: (their own website! they do not track most of the ones from other places)
7-0
0-1
6-1
4-1

DH winter: 4-4
DH summer: 7-2
DH Austin 8-2 (beat a league of legends player... lost in 1st round of playoffs)
These are opens against randoms off the street who attend dreamhack.

tavern tales QUALIFIER: 7-0
didnt play main event group stage as far as i can tell

Gfinity qualifiers: 3-0 vs 3 unranked guys

CN qualifiers: 3-1

old Open Gosucups:(again, from their own website)
4-1
7-1
2-1

Guess how many HCT point cups and other ghetto opens they track for Amnesiac? ZERO
Instead, half of his matches tracked are literally in championships. (24 out of 48)
You have compared apples and oranges to declare pavel "clearly a significantly better player".
Its just not the case.

This post was edited by cambovenzi on Feb 15 2017 06:54am
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Feb 15 2017 08:37am
Quote (Voyaging @ 14 Feb 2017 15:00)
Thanks for putting words in my mouth and attacking a strawman.

I already explained that I was being hyperbolic calling Amnesiac trash. Pavel is clearly a significantly better player than him though.

Pavel's ban and deck strategy was extremely well thought out and he's done it at multiple tournaments now with extraordinary success. The fact that Amnesiac can't wrap his head around it alone suggests that Pavel understands the game on a far deeper level (deck choice, building, and ban strategy being by far the most important part of tournament success, and Pavel being maybe the best in the world at it).

Pavel is also a better player because over a sufficient sample size he has a vastly better win rate.

Over 169 matches, Pavel has a 72.2% win rate.
Amnesiac, over 48 matches, has a 62.5% win rate.

In order to match Pavel's win rate, he'd need to win over 75% of his next 100+ matches (a higher win rate than anyone in the world).

You don't get a win rate on 500+ games like that on a fluke. You get it by making incredibly good deck and ban choices and playing well.

At Blizzcon, Pavel went 12-1 vs Druid, including both of his reverse sweeps. You think that was a fluke? No, he specifically built his lineup and decks to target Druid. Dark Arakkoa in his Druid, C'Thun Warrior, Water Elemental in Mage, etc. Nearly every one of his match wins played Druid.

At HCT he built his decks extraordinarily well for the meta and banned properly. He went I believe 9-0 vs Pirate Warrior (thanks to his building defensive decks strong against it as well as double Mortal Strike in his own Pirate Warrior). He specifically didn't target Reno decks (and only faced one, talk about good decision making). Nearly every one of his match wins played Pirate Warrior.

Pavel is the better player, possibly the best player in the world right now. Amnesiac is a good but not top tier professional, with a substantially smaller conceptual and strategic understanding of the game, and both his statements and results corroborate that.

I don't know if anyone is as good as Pavel at meta prediction and countering in a tournament. The fact that Amnesiac, a player who regularly makes inferior deck and ban choices, has the nerve to attack his superior for his ban choices is telling of how good Amnesiac really is.

Pavel won 3 major tournaments because he's a master of deck selection. Amnesiac keeps losing and getting pissy because he isn't.



You can't compare pro wins when talking about him school and sports > hs .. he does this on his spare time .. he's not going to every tournament like Pavel
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Feb 15 2017 09:12am
Quote (Katelyn @ Feb 15 2017 09:37am)
You can't compare pro wins when talking about him school and sports > hs .. he does this on his spare time .. he's not going to every tournament like Pavel


No one is saying he's a bad person. They are debating if he's a bad hs player. You can't use real life as an excuse. :p
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Feb 15 2017 12:12pm
Quote (DrLatBC @ 15 Feb 2017 11:12)
No one is saying he's a bad person. They are debating if he's a bad hs player. You can't use real life as an excuse. :p



He is one of greatest pros in current hs
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Feb 15 2017 02:09pm
Quote (DrLatBC @ Feb 15 2017 10:12am)
No one is saying he's a bad person. They are debating if he's a bad hs player. You can't use real life as an excuse. :p


I am saying that amnesiac is a bad person.
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Feb 15 2017 02:23pm
Quote (Mastersam93 @ Feb 15 2017 03:09pm)
I am saying that amnesiac is a bad person.


I sat there, looking at my Babbling Book, just wishing it was a Firelands Portal. It is the card that can save me this game, this tournament. There are 20 mage spells available, so I have a 5% chance of getting the exact card I need to keep me in this entire tournament.

Well RNG, I pray to you.


>

Implying you wouldnt be pissed if you lost like this either.
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Feb 15 2017 02:38pm
Quote (Katelyn @ Feb 15 2017 01:12pm)
He is one of greatest pros in current hs


I mean I haven't said anything either way, nerd. :p

Quote (Mastersam93 @ Feb 15 2017 03:09pm)
I am saying that amnesiac is a bad person.


Well fuck I stand corrected.
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