What Are Your Actual Chances For 12 Wins In Arena - Topic

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Oct 15 2015 10:39pm

Quote (Eternal_Amaranth @ Oct 15 2015 10:54pm)

Is that the shit you use to find unsolvable equations? Think I learned that in Calculus but.. brain dump

I still don't think it can apply to a game such as this. There are just WAY too many variables..

It would work but it'd by no means be an easy equation to create

Eternal_Amaranth

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#22

Oct 16 2015 06:32am

Quote (Pinecones @ Oct 16 2015 12:39am)

It would work but it'd by no means be an easy equation to create

Ok, you have 2 weeks

krova

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#23

Oct 16 2015 07:27am

No need to complicate things. OP is correct in all cases tho.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance+of+at+least+12+successes+out+of+14+tries+with+80%25+probabilty

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance+of+at+least+12+successes+out+of+14+tries+with+50%25+probabilty

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance+of+at+least+12+successes+out+of+14+tries+with+35%25+probabilty

Pinecones

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#24

Oct 16 2015 11:18am

Quote (Eternal_Amaranth @ Oct 16 2015 08:32am)

Ok, you have 2 weeks

Mastersam93

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#25

Oct 16 2015 11:23am

Could use some kind of sum of Baye's theorems.

Like, chance of winning 1st game with xx win rate + chance of winning 2nd game given you've won the 1st game at xx win rate.

Honestly, I think it'd be much easier to just get data on players grinding arena, and find their 1st game win%, 2nd game win%, etc, and average them out.

Dragon_Reborn

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#26

Oct 19 2015 05:22am

Quote (krova @ 16 Oct 2015 15:27)

No need to complicate things. OP is correct in all cases tho.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance%20of%20at%20least%2012%20successes%20out%20of%2014%20tries%20with%2080%25%20probabilty

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance%20of%20at%20least%2012%20successes%20out%20of%2014%20tries%20with%2050%25%20probabilty

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=chance%20of%20at%20least%2012%20successes%20out%20of%2014%20tries%20with%2035%25%20probabilty

that was a cool website

Quote (Mastersam93 @ 16 Oct 2015 19:23)

That would be more accurate, but a couple of problems here.
#1 win rate fluctuations would be different for different players and playerstyle, so an average wouldn't give a real answer anyways
#2 the formula would be way more complicated

Voyaging

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#27

Oct 19 2015 11:49pm

Quote (oWntpWnt @ Oct 14 2015 04:11pm)

I usually go every 4 runs to 12; arena win rate is around 70% so this actually makes some sense math wise wew

I have a 67% Arena winrate and have had four 12-win runs out of my 77 since I started tracking so this seems really weird.

Quote (krova @ Oct 16 2015 09:27am)

You aren't guaranteed 14 tries. If you get 3 losses the run stops.

This post was edited by Voyaging on Oct 19 2015 11:58pm