So here it is boys.
Ever wondered what your actual chances of reaching 12 wins in the arena are?

Well now you can, using this formula, given that you know your winrate:

78X^14 -168X^13 + 91X^12 = Chances of 12 wins

X = your winrate


For example:

One of the best players? 80% winratio: 44,8% (almost 1 out of 2!)
Average arena player? 50% winratio: 0,6% (about 1 out of every 170 arenas!)
Are you a bad player? 35% winratio: 0,014% (a whooping 1 out of every 7000 arenas!)

I usually go every 4 runs to 12; arena win rate is around 70% so this actually makes some sense math wise wew

This post was edited by oWntpWnt on Oct 14 2015 02:12pm

What's the derivation for this formula?

you have some kind of agreement with blizzard bro.

What do you mean with derivation?
How I arrived at the formula?
If so I wrote out the whole sequence of possible outcomes (0 losses, 1 loss, 2 losses), added them together and then simplified the formula as best as I could.

I can post the original formula (not simplified) in the morning if you wish. Going to bed now

No it's cool, I believe you.

Saw your signature and was disappointed that you were using your name for actual dragons. Read profile, was happy again.

Just started re-reading The Wheel of Time.

You're missing the fact that games in lower win brackets are easier than games in higher win brackets.
Your win % decreases as you advance in wins.

Unfortunately this doesnt seem correct due to the way arena is formatted.
You aren't paired against random people each game. You are paired against someone with a similar amount of wins. As your wins goes up it becomes significantly harder to win.
An overall 50% win rate player is not a 50% win rate player against 7-11 win decks, while he might be a 70% win rate player in the first 3 games.

This post was edited by cambovenzi on Oct 14 2015 06:08pm

If you're oWntpWnt, probably like 1 out of 3 chances.