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http://www.scribd.com/doc/142849718/Neverwinter-strategic-field-guideField study on the benefits of pattern recognition, Experience and leverage within a given commercial field
Author
Viscount Seignard LaFressange
Study subject: MMORPG Neverwinter open beta release
1: identifying initial risk/reward opportunities
The initial risk/reward opportunity screening process in Neverwinter consisted of identifying & utilizing methods whereupon the subject would be able to draw from experiences acquired during previous undertakings (Diablo2). One known method to gain initial advantage in PC games is the proper usage of leverage, where leverage is defined as being in possession of multiple game accounts and/or multiboxing, which is usually associated with the negative side effect of increased capital and time/effort expenditures. Since Neverwinter is a free to play MMO without IP or macadress restrictions on the number of separate accounts a user may utilize, the disadvantage in this example is limited to concern only the extra time/effort resource investment, where the overarching cost/benefits of having multiple accounts is factored by 1 to 10 (every extra account yields 10 profit for every 1 cost, compared to the cost/benefit of a single account user). Diminishing returns kick in at more than 10 accounts where the cost/benefit factor of every account created after the 10 first is much lower as a result of physical and mental limitations in the human capacity to execute repetetive monotonous tasks, unless the process of account login is automated by the user. Automation (botclusters) is not covered by this essay since it consists of complex understanding of external fields such as programming and scripting.
Once multiple accounts have been established by the user it is simply a matter of identifying maximum profit yield, weighted against time and micromanagement disadvantages.
Example given;
In Neverwinter a player, upon reaching level 10, may choose to specialize in one or more out of 5 different profession universes; Plate & Mailsmithing, Leatherworking, Leadership and Tailoring. By design these professions should in theory over time yield equal profit across the board, however, given the special circumstances of the secondary drone account which has been created only with additional passive income in mind and not active play, combined with inherently unbalanced gameplay mechanisms associated with open beta release, it is of importance to discriminate in favour of professions accounting for these discrepancies. Favourable professions have thus far proven to be:
Leatherworking - unmatched in realtime crafting capabilities using multiple simultaneous accounts in windowed mode. Level 1 branch; cure simple leather yields maximum dividend based on current market conditions and time investment. Risk profiling: saturation (mid/longterm supply/demand issues). Time/effort liabilities: requires active user participation.
Across all professions the single most rewarding prospect is to continuously hire new "workers". It requires an 18 hour passive time investment and performs within the top percentile based on our specific cost/benefit formulation. Risk profiling: Long term market saturation and price deflation. Countermeasures include diversification (hire workers from many different professions) and "upgrading" where 4 rank 1 workers are trained into 1 level 2 worker. This upgrade requires a midlevel (7) advancement and is thus not available to beginners.
Besides professions, multiple account loggers may also enjoy benefits from daily login bonuses such as accumulation of Celestial and Astral coins which are automatically transferred to a player once per 24 hours and may be used to purchase ingame item packs and endgame items. Invocation (available at level 11) is available once per hour with the possibility of rewarding the user with currency and experience points, the latter substituting active questing for passive leveling, equivalent of a total of 3 days realworld time investment if the user, while managing other activities in the account, remembers to invoke daily over an extended period (months).
How to setup and run multiple accounts:
Create a new e-mail address using hotmail or any other free online mail service
Register a new account with Perfect World, make sure your primary account is not logged in during the process.
Level a character to 11 and begin the automated professions hiring process. Remember to invoke once daily and keep a record of useful details pertaining to the drone account, such as what items are kept there, and a time table that lets you know when it is time to renew the professions training (commonly every 18 hours).
Setup ingame postal communications by adding the drone as a friend to your main account, this will ease the postal process with which you send items between individual accounts.
Use the main account to accumulate wealth and post items in the games built in auction house.
2: Common auction house and investment principles and game specific advice
shorthand: diversify assets, buy low/sell high.
Neverwinter has thus far presented many chaotic opportunities for a seasoned person to take advantage of such as:
The many exploits which caused a market saturation of high end epic items
functional auction house layout
The recent exploitation of the ingame currency which caused profound volatility in markets
ZEN/AD arbitrage
Obscure knowledge of information that may be used by unscrupulous players to gain an advantage vis a vis beginners (Nightmare lockboxes, currencies and their values in relation to one another)
The auction house is by design somewhat complicated for the average new user to understand, items posted for pure bidding precedes items listed for buyout in the search results list, causing many people to misinterpret the bidding process for actual buyouts. This discrepancy occurs with a dense enough interval to make short bursts of auction house sniping lucrative from every cost/reward aspect. Its highly recommended to be observant of this irregularity while scrolling through the search list of an item you are about to post or have just posted, especially so for Dragon eggs, under professions tab. Dragon eggs were subject to an exploit whereby people accrued mass amounts by repeating a certain mid level quest, once patched, the legitimate and knowledgeable player stood to profit for a full five days, which is the maximum length of auctions, from the information lag between Perfect Worlds announcement/fix and absorption by the general market, amplified by confusing auction house search results.
Neverwinter presents opportunities for those willing to set apart enough time and patience to regularly conduct customized searches through the auction house, mine usually goes something like this:
Lightning enchantment shards - often posted for 13-15k ad each, fluctuations during the day in intervals of 13 upwards 35-40 thousand ad.
Other level 5 enchantments posted for less than 1/100 of the price of a coalescent ward, for instance 1400 to 150k, or 3000 (bundle) to 170k. It is well worth to try ones luck with 1% chance crafting in these cases, with the downside of running into losing streaks.
Coalescent wards, highly volatile, daily range 100k-190k. Combine cheap shards which you obtained during one part of the day with cheap wards obtained during the latter part and post the higher level resulting enchantment during peak hours to multiply profit. Requires moderate resource investment.
Dragon eggs as described.
Profession assets, rank 1 workers. This is your primary source of income but are often bugged to display since long expired postings (lowest priced shows first), which similarly to dragon eggs causes people to post their assets for much too cheap. Works to protect your own postings and so serves a double purpose. Cheaply obtained assets should be promptly upgraded to rank 2 assets to further maximize profit.
The layered aspect of many items (ranks), their dynamic interaction with astral diamonds and natural market fluctuations provides ideal conditions for the mathematically observant to speculate and profit.
3: Importance of pattern recognition and diversification and commentary on the current situation
Astral diamonds are hyperinflating as a result of multilogging and are thus useless for long term saving, despite the 10% auction house cut. Further, the artificially capped Zen exchange rate (50 low 500 high) will eventually redirect real money flow from the exchange into the auction house directly or go through 3rd party websites. Long term Zen will become unobtainable as we have recently witnessed with the gateway exploit unless the artificial ceiling is regularly adjusted upwards by PW, similarly to how Blizzard handle Diablo 3 gold ratios.
An example of a diversified Neverwinter resource portfolio:
50% Zen (long term savings)
25% items (epics including wards, enchantments, assets/professions mounts etc)
5-10% gold
15-20% Astral diamonds (tool)
Recently, gold and items have come to dominate the market as an instrument of bartering stemming from the ad exploit and subsequent maintenance of the auction house. Players who not only made sure to stock up on GF exploit farmed epics, but were able to memorize key auction house item ratios in astral diamonds before the collapse have profited immensely from the chaotic situation in Neverwinter. To further leverage the situation in favour of the experienced traders falling under the above description, my final advice is to go beyond the enclave into end game 55-60 zones where people will be willing to shell out large amounts of gold, residuum and level 5 azure/radiant and dark enchantments in return for purple items obtained by trivial sums of astral diamonds just 1 week prior.
Once the auction house reopens prices will initially be outrageous during the first 1 week as the market resettles, be sure to liquidate any excess purple items during this time (low tier), and liquidate all excess gold before the auction house reopens as it is merely in a temporary upsurge as a result of recent events.