i think you're trying to save face as you may finally realize you're wrong. the question in point was the odds it would drop this year. reading comprehension is key.

It's not impossible, are you saying it is?

Regardless of previous results its always 50% for heads.

Try reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamblers_fallacy



You can add it all you want, it's still 0.03% drop rate.
Chance to get it is 0.03% regardless of any previous attempts.

This post was edited by iLuxxy on Feb 16 2013 11:09am

Well getting heads 1000 times in a row with a fair coin has 9.33264x10^-302 chance of happening, so yes I would consider that impossible.

i'm starting to see your point..

but logically speaking..

let's say you're trying to get heads on a coin

you toss a coin 1 time and it lands on tails, if you toss it again, wouldn't you increase your chances of getting heads at least 1 time?

don't you up your chances of getting heads (or in this case a mount) if you increase the number of trials?

Well it's not impossible unless it's a flat 0% chance of rolling, and proves why you're not capable of this argument.
I had no problem shedding some insight into probability with you guys, and slamming stok3d.




No, it doesn't increase just due to the fact that when you started it's a 50% even flip.
Each time you flip it, it will always be the same chance, but the probability is less.

It's not smart to look at it like that however,because it's still going to be 50% chance every time., you're not REALLY increasing or decreasing your odds.
that's why its a fallacy.

Like say you go to a casino, and play lets say roulette and it lands on 33 black.
It has the same equal chance to land on 33 black as it did last spin, as if you betted on 32 red.


This is the most common example of it.

This post was edited by iLuxxy on Feb 16 2013 11:29am

meh nvm the sum rule doesn't fit into this context

This post was edited by Cyba on Feb 16 2013 11:33am

Keep trying convince yourself that you're correct for disagreeing with this comment comment:

/yawn. I wonder if zookeepers get as bored trying to train chimps.



:/ you just lost your out to save face

This post was edited by Stok3d on Feb 16 2013 11:50am

Well, not really, and kind of, that's where it's confusing. They are both true, and neither really state otherwise.
The chance IS less likely in an equation, of repeated tests, You can't deny that it's less likely to get heads every time 100 times than it is 10.

However the 100th flip won't be affected due to previous results.



Simply stated it's mathematically ignorant to compound it like that, and it is.
You're beating around the bush.
Each time you go in and open the box, it's 0.03% unaffected by ANY and ALL previous attempts.
Sure in your head the "probability" might seem higher, but at the end of the day, each time you go and click that box, it will be a 0.03% chance to get it each time.
Either way i wish you the best of luck getting it, i need it myself.


7 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 1 Anonymous): Airwaves, iLuxxy, D2HM, jagroen, Cyba, Zhaux

inb4 lol wow retail.

This post was edited by iLuxxy on Feb 16 2013 11:45am

what mount is it?

It has a 3% drop rate, and you do it 750 times...its still 3%

its probability, 3% x 3% all the way up too 750 times

voniazmogis is talking about the probability % added, yes in "theory" it will eventually add up to 100% but the drop rate is a constant and does not change unless blizz changes the drop rate