Hi i got into a discussion with friends about upgrading and how rare it is to roll a perfect upped, i couldnt find concrete proof with odds of rolling a perfect upped item such as gface, viper magi, arreats hoz etc

Anyone got a guide to explain in full what is going on and odds for or at least an explaination for what is going on when you upgrade an item and it rolls super shit defense etc.

Dis

so there isnt a way to say 1/1000 based on odds?

You would have to multiply everything.

Let's do anni but say it has defence

+1 all skills
+10-20 stats
+10-20 all resist
+5-10 exp

Rolls between 30-50 defence.

There's 11 possibilities between 10-20. 10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
There's 11 possibilities between 10-20. 10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20
There's 6 possibilities between 5-10. 5,6,7,8,9,10

There's 21 possibilities between 30-50. 30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49,50


So you then multiply those.

11*11*6*21 = 15246

So to roll a 20-20-10 w/ 50 def it'd be 1:15246

A perf anni as is, has a 1:726 drop rate

Edit, this is also why items like perf wolfhowl are so incredibly rare.

+120-150% Enhanced Defense (31 options)
+2-3 To Warcries (Barbarian Only) (2 options)
+3-6 To Feral Rage (4 options)
+3-6 To Lycanthropy (4 options)
+3-6 To Werewolf (4 options)
+8-15 To Strength (8 options)
+8-15 To Dexterity (8 options)
+8-15 To Vitality (8 options)
Level 15 Summon Dire Wolf (18 Charges)

31*2*4*4*4*8*8*8 = 2,031,616

1:2,031,616

Same with tomb reaver

+200-280% Enhanced Damage (81 options)
+150-230% Damage To Undead (81 options)
+60% Increased Attack Speed
+250-350 To Attack Rating Against Undead (101 options)
All Resistances +30-50 (21 options)
10% Reanimate As: Returned
+10-14 Life After Each Kill (5 options)
+50-80% Better Chance of Getting Magic Items (31 options)
+4 To Light Radius
Socketed (1-3) (3 options)

81*81*101*21*5*31 = 2,156,961,555

1 in 2,156,961,555

Neither of those are accounting for the chance of them being ethereal either.

You need not worry about base def of the items you want to upgrade, just the other variable stats

The mods on the item will not reroll but the base defence of armour (inluding helms/shields/gloves etc) will reroll

Which then means you need to take into account the variable in defense after rolling a perf item otherwise.

This post was edited by Vilify on Aug 27 2022 08:44pm

And also to avoid confusion, if you already have a perf item stat wise but not base def wise, your odds are just the variable in defence.

Perf item with 5 def when upped (if it were 1-100 base def) would be a 1% shot at a perf def roll.

What about if defense is like rolling upped gface.

Defense: 114-159

46 options so 1:46

Items that spawn with %ED will have their base defense set to max (they don't actually roll a max defense) by a special rule. Upgraded items are not guaranteed max defense rolls, their base stats are (re)rolled.

why is itworth so much then haha