In the upcoming U-17 Euro (both male and female), UEFA will implement a new shootout system that will try to eliminate the statistical advantage the first shooting team has with the current shootout system (apparently a statistical analysis of over 2.9k penalties in 270 tie-breaking shootouts has shown that whoever shoots first has a 21% chance of winning).

Instead of following the traditional pattern in which the shooting team switches after each penalty (A-B, A-B, A-B....), the order in which each team shoots will change after every round of 2 penalties (A-B, B-A, A-B, B-A, A-B,...).

Hmm interesting.. it's one of those things that I find that doesn't need changing.

Well, if there really is a 21% advantage for whichever team shoots first, then imo it's a good idea to test other systems.

It's a tricky matter, with so many psychological factors involved that idk if maths can give a definitive answer to it. It will be interesting to see how this works out... although looking at two u-17 touranments where there might just be 1 or 2 shootouts at most won't really provide conclusive results.

Your second sentence is exactly what I'm thinking.. Only so many maths can change the way it is.

In the ends the germans always win, doesn't matter how much you change.

Need to just switch to the hockey penalty version where they have to run to the goal. Goalkeepers rely on mostly luck for penos (there are a few exceptions granted) would be nice to see how they do 1v1. Makes it more fun when it gets to the defenders too. I'd piss myself laughing watching Morgan try and take on a goalie

The thing witht he current system is that when you shoot first, you are guaranteed to shoot at least as many penalties as the opponent. In some cases the shootout will end half way through the round (because it doesn't matter if the second team's shooter score or not anymore), meaning that by being first might allow you to shoot more times, and so have more chances of scoring.

With the new system, being first doesn't guarantee you that advantage... it will depend on how the shootout progresses.

Shootouts work for Hockey because they keeper can actually make the goal effectively smaller. the area to score a goal in is also smaller so is the goal. So for instance when a keeper comes there is no possibility to a lob. If the keeper manages to push the player to one side, there is much less chance for a goal, I can go on, but I really dont have to Shootouts and football don't work.

I agree with you Zark, if there is a serious advantage to the team shooting first i'd be in for a change.

At first I thought the change to PKs would be MLS style pks circa 90s, where the pk was actually a breakaway lol <-- that i would be against

Well this is just an idea they will try out for now. Maybe the old MLS system will be the one implemented if a real change is ever made, idk.

I think FIFA prefers the MLS 1vs1 system while UEFA (which in general is more conservative for these matters, as you'd expect from a confederation of the oldest FAs in the world) prefers a way of making pk shootouts work more efficiently.