Quote (ampoo @ Mar 18 2016 08:43am)
ye sure the world will end if they leave the EU, there was healthy trade before and there will always be
repeating bullshit will not make it true
will be history soon anyway, queen merkel is seeing to that
irvine please
Even a tiny reduction in trade would cause hugely negative effects for our economy. Maybe 95% of trade will continue happily and the remaining 5% of UK businesses get screwed. Not worth leaving just because your leader is on a power trip
Quote (WNxIrvine @ Mar 18 2016 09:01am)
That wasn't one of my points but since you're interested in the money I'd say we could potentially make an agreement closer to what Canada are discussing. I'd say that putting our economy into the same bracket of pulling power as Norway and Switzerland is, at best, mildly insulting.
No one is saying that a "brexit" would be easy, or wouldn't, at least temporarily, harm the UK economy. But I firmly believe, along with people much smarter than you or I, that the eu is heading for trouble, and we could end up a lot better off being on the outside looking in.
You're overestimating our bargaining power, the EU is made up of 27 other countries that receive a fraction of their total trade from Britain, whereas we export over 50% of our goods to the EU. Negotiations with a country outside the EU would not have the free movement of people clause in it for obvious geographical reasons.
I know you are aware of potentially negative effects of leaving, but maybe you're downplaying it. Is it worth a recession over?
"...All this leads some economists to expect that Brexit would have substantial consequences. Citigroup thinks the
cumulative effect will be to lower GDP growth by 4% over three years. Berenberg, the German bank, thinks that the hit to consumer and business confidence could even trigger a recession. Both Goldman Sachs and Marc Chandler, currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, think the
pound could fall to $1.15-$1.20 in the face of capital flight. This would have an impact on inflation and monetary policy. While Eurosceptics may dismiss these concerns as scaremongering, most strategists seem to think the consequences of Brexit would be negative; that probably means more volatility as the referendum date approaches, particularly if the polls continue to be close."
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/02/economist-explains-11