Quote (draino @ May 15 2012 08:13pm)
We're 20 days away from this year's Rule 4 draft, and virtually nothing is settled at this point, starting with the first overall pick. As always, this is based on my conversations with sources throughout the industry, not my personal rankings of players.
Houston Astros
Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford
The Astros' decision is still apparently up in the air, but the general feeling is that they'll take the college arm over the higher-upside, higher-risk outfielder, Byron Buxton … or that they'll take the best player who'll cut a deal below the $7.2 million slot figure and transfer the money to later picks.
Minnesota TwinsByron Buxton, OF, Appling County H.S. (Baxley, Ga.)
They were presumed to be on San Francisco right-hander Kyle Zimmer until the past few weeks, when Zimmer's velocity slipped and he missed a start with a hamstring injury. Appel seems to be the other option here, or perhaps prep right-hander Lucas Giolito now that teams are getting more and more comfortable with reports on his elbow injury, which caused him to miss most of the year.
Seattle MarinersLucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake H.S. (Studio City, Calif.)
They were supposedly on Florida catcher Mike Zunino, but now the word is they want pitching and are on Giolito, Max Fried (Giolito's high school teammate) and Oklahoma State southpaw Andrew Heaney. But I'm also hearing Puerto Rican prep shortstop Carlos Correa is a possibility. It's worth noting that their first-round pick last year, Danny Hultzen, stunned almost everyone, so if we think the Mariners are on someone, they probably are not.
Baltimore OriolesKevin Gausman, RHP, LSU
Baltimore is looking for the best player available; that could be Gausman, who I currently have ranked as the top pitcher in the draft, or Correa or any of the players named above, although the Orioles are not really linked to Giolito.
Kansas City RoyalsMike Zunino, C, FloridaI've heard them on Gausman, and every college arm, and of course, they'd look at Buxton if he fell. They've also been camped out on hard-throwing prep right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. for his past few outings, when he has been peaking at just the right time.
Chicago CubsAlbert Almora, CF, Mater Academy Charter (Hialeh Gardens, Fla.)
The Cubs also have their eyes California prep lefty Fried and Puerto Rico's Correa. Almora, who has an advanced feel for hitting and good range in center, is the likely favorite here.
San Diego PadresCarlos Correa, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy
Correa has as much upside as anyone in this draft, with incredible hand-eye coordination and athleticism, but it's likely he ends up at third. This could also be San Francisco right-hander Zimmer or Clemson third baseman Richie Shaffer, and they're just waiting with open arms if someone should fall.
Pittsburgh PiratesDeven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
Most people saw Marrero as a top-five pick coming into the season, but he didn't have a great year for the Sun Devils. However, the entire industry seems to think the Pirates want him here. I have also heard them on Mississippi State right-hander Chris Stratton.
Miami MarlinsMax Fried, LHP,
Fried, who is very polished for a prep pitcher, and Texas high school outfielder Courtney Hawkins are the most likely picks here, with some rumors around Duke righty Marcus Stroman (Heath Bell's replacement?) and Oklahoma prep righty Ty Hensley (perhaps just because his father and Stan Meek are friends).
Colorado RockiesCourtney Hawkins, 3B, Carroll (Texas) H.S.
Hawkins might have the quickest bat of anyone in this draft, though he sometimes struggles to make contact. I'm also hearing Ty Hensley and David Dahl here. I would have to think they'd re-evaluate if someone such as Fried fell this far.
Oakland AthleticsLance McCullers, Jr., RHP, Jesuit H.S. (Tampa)
McCullers has been moving up boards with some strong showings of late and has more scouts believing he can remain a starter. The A's are also considering Florida prep shortstop Addison Russell; Las Vegas high school slugger Joey Gallo and his crazy power; Shaffer; Hawkins, if he's here; and some of the college arms. Where they pick, it makes sense for them to be on a lot of guys, as they're just outside the top tier of 8-10 names.
New York MetsMichael Wacha, RHP, Texas A&M
Wacha doesn't have a ton of upside, but his advanced changeup and likelihood of reaching his ceiling make him appealing. Also hearing the Mets on Louisiana high school shortstop Gavin Cecchini and Hawkins or Fried if either should get here.
Chicago White SoxRichie Shaffer, 3B, Clemson
Shaffer has the most raw power of any college hitter in this class and has a very good chance of being a solid big league regular, but probably not a star. It'll be interesting to see if ownership allows the scouting department to spend up to the new, higher slot numbers, since they almost never exceeded the old figures. I've also heard them tied to Ohio prep lefty Matt Smoral.
Cincinnati RedsKyle Zimmer, RHP, San Francisco
Zimmer's hamstring issue has clouded his draft status a bit, and while he throws hard he doesn't have a lot of downward plane on his fastball. The Reds have been linked mostly with college arms so far, with Zimmer heading a group that would include Heaney, Stroman and Stratton.
Cleveland IndiansAndrew Heaney, LHP, Oklahoma State
The best college lefty in the draft has had impressive results in a tough conference, but he's not overpowering. As with the Reds, I'm hearing college arms here, too, including Wacha and Heaney, but I think scouting director Brad Grant proved last year -- when he grabbed high school shortstop Francisco Lindor in the first round -- that he's not afraid to take a prep player.
Washington NationalsChris Stratton, RHP, Mississippi State
Hearing arms here, mostly college but including a possible prep arm such as Lucas Sims. Stratton has put up impressive strikeout numbers in the SEC, but needs to prove he can pitch more off his fastball in pro ball.
Toronto Blue JaysGavin Cecchini, SS, Barbe, H.S. (Lake Charles, La.)
The younger brother of Red Sox third-base prospect Garin Cecchini is a better hitting and fielding prospect. Also hearing the Jays linked to Florida prep righty Nick Travieso, Louisiana high school catcher Stryker Trahan, Mississippi high school outfielder D.J. Davis and Gallo. In other words, the Blue Jays sound like they're going for ceiling.
Los Angeles DodgersTy Hensley, RHP, Edmond (Okla.) Santa Fe H.S.
A big, hard-throwing Midwestern arm with a hammer curveball. Don't tell me that doesn't sound like a Dodgers pick to you. Arizona prep outfielder Mitch Nay could also be a fit.
St. Louis CardinalsStryker Trahan, C, Acadiana H.S. (Lafayette, La.)
This is the compensation pick the Cardinals got from the Angels for Albert Pujols. St. Louis is linked to lots of bats, including Cecchini if he's here, Davis, Russell and Stanford's Stephen Piscotty. Haven't heard Gallo here, but he'd make a lot of sense if they believe he'll hit. Sims is one pitching possibility.
San Francisco GiantsMarcus Stroman, RHP, Duke
His lack of height will scare some teams off, but the stuff is very real. Florida southpaw Brian Johnson is also a possibility here, as is Piscotty.
Atlanta BravesTanner Rahier, Palm Desert (Calif.) H.S.
Rahier is one of the most advanced prep bats in this class and at least has a chance to stick at short, though his body looks like that of a third baseman. I heard Missouri State righty Pierce Johnson a lot here before he got hurt. Atlanta is also in on Brian Johnson, Davis and Smoral if the team is sufficiently comfortable with the reports on the foot injury that caused him to miss some time.
Toronto Blue JaysNick Travieso, RHP, Archbishop McCarthy H.S. (Southwest Ranches, Fla.)
This is a compensation pick the Blue Jays got for failing to sign first-rounder Tyler Beede a year ago. (Beede ended up at Vanderbilt.) In addition to Travieso, I've also heard Toronto linked to Georgia high school right-hander Duane Underwood, but more likely in the sandwich round.
St. Louis CardinalsStephen Piscotty, 3B, Stanford
Stanford tends to stress an extremely mechanical approach to hitting that often robs hitters of power and flexibility, but it hasn't hindered Piscotty as much as previous Cardinal prospects. As noted earlier, the Cardinals are looking for bats.
Boston Red SoxD.J. Davis, OF, Stone County (Miss.) H.S.
They could play the board and go for a college guy here, hoping to get Davis at 31, but I doubt he gets by the Rangers and Yankees.
Tampa Bay RaysCarson Kelly, 3B, Westview H.S. (Portland, Ore.)
Kelly is a two-way prospect who has strong hands but a noisy lower half. He's the best player available for the Rays, a team with a history of drafting top talent from the Pacific Northwest, such as 2011 supplemental first-rounders Jeff Ames and Blake Snell.
Arizona DiamondbacksPierce Johnson, RHP, Missouri State
He could have gone in that 13-16 range if healthy, but a forearm strain has left his status unclear. He could still go that high if the medicals come back clean.
Milwaukee BrewersClint Coulter, C, Union H.S. (Camas, Wash.)
This Arizona State commit may not stay behind the plate, but there's little doubt that he'll hit, and he has the arm strength to shut down the running game. (This is a compensation pick from the Tigers for Prince Fielder.)
Milwaukee BrewersLucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood (Ga.) H.S.
Sims generates a lot of arm speed from his 6-foot-2, 195-pound frame and features a low-90s fastball and a sharp, if inconsistent, curveball. This is probably the dream scenario for Milwaukee -- landing a bat and an arm, with one of their top choices for each -- although I understand they'd like to get one college guy in these first two picks.
Texas RangersZach Eflin, RHP, Hagerty (Fla.) H.S.
If Elfin hadn't missed a little time with a strained triceps, there's no way he gets here. At 6-5, 200 pounds, he has a ton of projection and has touched 95 mph this spring. Could see Underwood here, too.
New York YankeesAddison Russell, SS, Pace H.S. (Pensacola, Fla.)
I've heard them with Davis, if he gets here, and Washington prep outfielder Mitch Gueller as well. The Phillies are on Gueller hard in the sandwich round.
Boston Red SoxJoey Gallo, 3B, Bishop Gorman H.S. (Las Vegas)
This selection is compensation from the Phillies for Jonathan Papelbon. Gallo, who could be a first-rounder as a pitcher for his power arm or for his 80-grade power, shouldn't get this far, really. Have also heard the Sox linked with North Carolina prep third baseman Corey Seager, but both kids could carry high price tags.