does he deserve first ballot? no
will he make it first ballot? idk probably
think he deserves to be in the HoF due to his role in NFL history, being the only QB to beat Brady in the Owl twice and preventing the Pats from completing the 19-0 season etc.
don't think he should be a first ballot lock tho, we can debate til we're blue in the face about whether he belongs in the Hall, but he'll wind up there someday regardless