1. Jurickson Profar, SS
Age: 19
Level: Double-A (Frisco)

Too good to trade? Profar looks as if he could step in as a major league shortstop by Opening Day and be league-average or better, with superstar upside. That combination of immediate return and potential peak could make it impossible for Texas to get sufficient return in any deal; they would have to receive more than one established big leaguer with multiple years of control remaining to come close to the potential value of the first six years of Profar's career.

2. Gerrit Cole, RHP
Age: 21
Level: Double-A (Altoona)

Cole's raw stuff is as good as anyone's in the minors right now, with plus velocity, a plus changeup, and a slider up to 92 that you can easily project as plus, and scouts getting their first looks at him this year are going to come back with some strongly positive reports. I don't think Cole is ready for the majors, primarily because he still doesn't command the four-seamer well enough, but his repertoire wouldn't be out of place in a big league rotation, and he should be ready inside of 12 months.

3. Oscar Taveras, OF
Age: 20
Level: Double-A (Springfield)

I imagine Taveras will be the one name the Cardinals refuse to discuss in trades this summer, as the comparisons to Vlad Guerrero look a lot less outlandish this year than they did at this time in 2011. He could slot into most teams' 2013 Opening Day lineups, and the power display he put on in BP before the Futures Game -- witnessed by scouts from just about every team, with a few execs sprinkled in -- ratcheted up his value a few notches.

4. Tyler Skaggs, LHP
Age: 20
Level: Triple-A (Reno)

Left-handed, projectable, and already showing an above-average fastball, Skaggs has already reached Triple-A after having no trouble at any previous level. I could see him in a swing role or even as a fifth starter this year, but by this time next year, he should be ready for a rotation spot somewhere. As for teammate Trevor Bauer -- while I'm sure he'd still have trade value as a starter who's close to big-league ready, his diminished velocity in his four major league outings and inability (or unwillingness) to throw strikes, especially when behind in the count, will absolutely reduce what he's worth on the market until he has more success in the majors.

5. Mike Olt, 3B
Age: 23
Level: Double-A (Frisco)

Olt is the lowest-ranked prospect from my top 50 update (No. 46) to appear on this top 10, making up for his relative lack of ceiling (although his ceiling isn't low) with his proximity to the majors. Olt could probably step in right now and play third base for a number of rebuilding clubs, offering above-average defense, a .320 to .330 OBP, and 20 to 25 home run power right away.

6. Shelby Miller, RHP
Age: 21
Level: Triple-A (Memphis)

Miller's value has taken a hit this year, to the point where I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see him included in a major trade in the next seven days. His velocity was off earlier this year after he lost too much weight last winter, and while he's back in the mid-90s, he's struggling with command and has been unable to use his off-speed stuff to put hitters away. He's less ready than he seemed to be before this season, which makes him available, but at just 21, he's still promising enough to be able to bring back a significant major leaguer in return.

7. Julio Teheran, RHP
Age: 21
Level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)

Although Teheran has been very inconsistent this year in Triple-A, and quite homer-prone, he's also just 21 years old with a plus fastball and plus changeup and no history of arm trouble. It is reasonable for a bad team acquiring him to believe he could work in the majors either as a fifth starter or as a long man while he continues to work on fastball location and on finding a consistent breaking ball.

8. Billy Hamilton, SS
Age: 21
Level: Double-A (Pensacola)

Hamilton has stolen just eight bases in 11 games since his promotion to Double-A, but his speed is still game-changing and he's continued to get on base and hit for average even since the promotion (small sample-size caveats apply). There's also some small PR value to acquiring Hamilton, who is the most famous prospect currently in the minor leagues. Of course, the problem with Hamilton's trade value is that the Reds very easily could look at him as a potential bench piece for the stretch run, a pinch runner who could back up shortstop; they might try to get him some reps in center and/or at second base in August to give him more potential to play the field later in games.

9. Nick Castellanos, 3B
Age: 20
Level: Double-A (Erie)

Castellanos, like Olt, isn't going to appear in the majors this season at his ideal position (third base) barring an injury, so the Tigers have him playing at a position where he's less valuable (right field). He's reached Double-A at age 20, where he's hit and hit for some power but seen his walk rate plummet. His youth and advanced bat, as well as his ability to play third base for another organization, would allow the Tigers to make a second major move -- although after Monday's deal with Miami, it seems unlikely that they'd do so.

10. Jackie Bradley, Jr., CF
Age: 22
Level: Double-A (Portland)

Bradley has three things working in his favor for his trade value: He's a plus defender in center, he has shown an unexpectedly strong ability to get on base, and he's not that far away from the majors, probably a year or less. The Red Sox might be looking at him as Jacoby Ellsbury's long-term replacement, but if not, he's the kind of good-not-elite prospect who is traded more often than the upper-echelon prospects are.

The next five

Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pirates
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays
Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees
Archie Bradley, RHP, Diamondbacks
Mason Williams, CF, Yankees

In all likelihood, Zack Greinke pitched his final game for the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday night, and he did so in ace fashion, as he pitched seven innings of three-hit, one-run baseball, walking none and punching out five. His fastball was mostly 91 to 93 mph, and his curveball was knee-buckling as usual. He had missed his previous start due to fatigue and there were some murmurs of a possible injury, but Greinke put those whispers to rest with his performance against the Philadelphia Phillies.

With the report that the Phillies have agreed to a six-year deal in the $140 million range with Cole Hamels, Greinke -- who is eligible to be a free agent at the end of the season -- will be the top starter available between now and the July 31 trade deadline.

The most likely landing place for Greinke remains the Texas Rangers, whose loaded farm system has more good trade chips than any other contending team in baseball. Although shortstop Jurickson Profar is off limits and third baseman Mike Olt isn't a great fit because the Brewers have Aramis Ramirez under contract for another couple of years, left-hander Martin Perez or righty Neftali Feliz could be involved in a swap for Greinke.

There are some baseball executives involved in the process who told me that in an ideal world, the Brewers would trade Ramirez to the Los Angeles Dodgers for top pitching prospect Zach Lee, and then turn around and send Greinke to the Rangers for Olt. However, the Dodgers part of the transaction does not look like it’s going to work, as the Dodgers seem more likely to use Lee to get Matt Garza or Josh Johnson, both of whom they can control beyond this year.


If the Rangers and Brewers don’t make the deal, there are several other suitors that have interest, including the Los Angeles Angels, Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays.

The Angels could offer a package around infielder Jean Segura and righty Garrett Richards. Segura would become the Brewers' everyday shortstop, and Richards could go right into their rotation. The Orioles don’t have enough because they are not willing to include either shortstop Manny Machado or right-hander Dylan Bundy, two of baseball's best prospects.

The Nationals have enough to get Greinke but aren’t really interested unless they can consummate a long-term deal with him, as they don't want a rental. I still see them as a sleeper in the Greinke market. The Blue Jays are another dark horse in the sweepstakes, as Brewers GM Doug Melvin would like to reverse the Brett Lawrie deal of a year ago by getting one of the Blue Jays' blue-chip prospects for a top starter. However, the Blue Jays are apparently unwilling to give extensions beyond five years, and since Greinke reportedly turned down a five-year, $100 million deal earlier this month, I can't see Toronto selling the farm for a two-month rental.

The Braves could provide a substantial package of pitching prospects but are in a holding pattern, waiting on Ryan Dempster to make up his mind whether he’ll accept the trade to Atlanta. If the Braves don't get Dempster, their interest in Greinke would increase significantly.

If I had to rank the suitors in the order of the likelihood they get Greinke, it would go like this:

1. Rangers
2. Angels
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Blue Jays
6. Dodgers
7. Orioles

With the Angels and Rangers vying for American League West supremacy, it will be interesting to see whether one of them flinches and decides to go all-in on Greinke. Both clubs have the prospects to get him and recognize that he could be the final piece that would put them over the top. The Rangers were considered the most likely destination for Hamels before he re-signed, and that should only make the market for Greinke even more fierce.

There are some who question how Greinke will handle a pennant race or a big market. I’m not one of them. Just like he did Tuesday night against the Phillies, I’ve seen him time after time have the capability of blocking out everything and everyone around him. I’ve seen him so focused that at times you can say he’s a tad insensitive, but that's because he doesn't care much for small talk or formalities. He doesn’t like to do radio or TV shows, but would rather sit and talk to a writer so he can take his time to get a point across. Fact is, he is incredibly intelligent, and I have no concerns about him performing in any environment.

The one thing I know about Greinke is that every time I see him pitch, I see a guy with Cy Young-type stuff. Every time I see him pitch, I feel like his team has a chance to win. Every time I see him on the mound, I see a competitor who takes that elite stuff and pounds the strike zone. I see a difference-maker in Greinke. I see a winner. And whoever gets him has a chance of winning this trade deadline.

thanks

For many years, fantasy football teams were built around running backs to the point that many owners would rarely consider taking a player at a position other than a running back with one of their first two draft picks.

That mindset may change this season, as current ESPN Live Draft results show quarterbacks being selected with three of the top seven picks and five of the first 17 picks on average.

With the increased cost of quarterbacks, many fantasy owners are going to be looking for undervalued passers who can be had for a relatively low price but have the point potential to far exceed their cost.

Here are six candidates who look to fit that bill:


Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Average draft position (ADP): 89.7 (ranked 14th among quarterbacks)

The first thought that comes to most fantasy players' minds when Schaub's name is mentioned is injury. This is understandable given that Schaub has played in 11 or fewer games in three of his five seasons in Houston.

While he does have durability concerns, Schaub also has top-flight productivity potential.

Before he got hurt, Schaub was on pace to post a 240-point season despite not having the services of Andre Johnson for six of his 10 games. Only nine passers tallied more than 240 points last season, and if Johnson had been healthy, it's certainly possible Schaub could have moved that number even higher.

Schaub didn't miss a game in the two seasons prior to last year, so the injury history of late has actually been more in his favor than against it. Throw in the fact that my draft guide says Schaub has the most favorable schedule of any quarterback in the league, and it means he offers third- or fourth-round point potential for an eighth- or ninth-round pick.



Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
ADP: 60.1 (ranked 10th)

As was recently noted in an article detailing why the Chargers should be considered the favorites to win the AFC West, Rivers' perceived drop-off last year was nowhere near as large as generally thought.

He racked up 7.9 overall yards per attempt (YPA), a total that was ninth best in the league and achieved it on 601 attempts (if penalty plays are included). He also accounted for 28 touchdowns, had 216 vertical pass attempts (tied for third highest in the league) and a 12.0 vertical YPA that ranked ninth best.

The Chargers lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, but they still have a very deep wide receiver corps and could be looking at a turnaround campaign from Antonio Gates.

Rivers ended the 2011 season with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions over his last six games and posted 19 or more fantasy points in three of those contests, so he was getting back to his old self by the end of that campaign. That trend is likely to continue this year, and it makes Rivers a steal at pick No. 60.



Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers
ADP: 119.2 (ranked 17th)

With the roster additions of Mario Manningham, Randy Moss and A.J. Jenkins, and the improved health of Michael Crabtree, it can safely be said that no team in the NFL has done more to upgrade its pass-catching personnel than San Francisco.

That probably won't be enough to vault Smith to the level of a dominant fantasy quarterback, if for no other reason than 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh operates a run-heavy offense that likely won't allow Smith to tally much more than 500 pass attempts.

Even with that ceiling, Smith's prior history of superb performance shows that he can be one of those rare quarterbacks to post a high YPA total on a relatively low volume of attempts. That makes him a great later-round pick for leagues that have two quarterbacks or give six points for passing touchdowns.



Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders
ADP: 137.7 (ranked 21st)

In looking for a backup quarterback, wouldn't it be great to have someone who is capable of posting 15 or more points a high percentage of the time?

If that sounds like a good definition for a QB2, Palmer should be on your draft radar screen, because he racked up 15 or more points in six of his nine starts last season.

He was able to do this in part because he ranked fifth in the league in overall YPA (8.3), tied for ninth in vertical YPA (12.0) and ranked eighth in stretch vertical YPA (14.5), as well as placing 11th in ESPN's Total QBR metric.

That Palmer was able to perform at such a high statistical level despite taking over the silver and black offense in midseason is quite extraordinary. With a full offseason under his belt, he should be able to make the adjustment to the Raiders' new West Coast offensive scheme and take full advantage of the stockpile of young receiving talent on the Oakland roster. That makes Palmer another terrific later-round selection for leagues that give six points for passing touchdowns or have two starting quarterbacks each week.



Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns
ADP: undrafted (ranked 28th)

In his career at Oklahoma State, Weeden displayed above-average or better showings in overall metrics, consistency, career growth, ability to raise the level of play of those around him and big-game performance.

He is taking the same kind of bull-by-the-horns approach to his new job in Cleveland, and it's just the type of mindset the Browns offense needs to shake itself out of its lethargy.

The state of the Cleveland receiving corps means Weeden may not offer quite enough upside to invest a draft pick in most leagues, but he has ample value as a waiver-wire pick in standard leagues, as a backup quarterback in a deep league or as a QB3 in multiquarterback leagues.

Potential rare value pick



Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
ADP: 41.4 (ranked 8th)

Manning couldn't be listed with the above picks because his current ADP of 41.4 is generally considered to be a good risk/reward investment level for him.

Having said that, in the most recent ESPN experts' 10-team mock draft, Manning lasted until the end of the eighth round when Team Karabell picked him.

The likely reason he was passed over for so many rounds is a combination of two factors -- the depth of quality quarterbacks in the draft and the recurring concerns over his arm strength. The reports coming out of Denver have basically all had the same theme: Manning is in many ways back to his old form, with the exception of long passes. He still has to prove he can have a bigger impact in the vertical game than he did in his last full NFL season, when he posted a 9.7 vertical YPA that ranked 26th in the league.

Those factors could very well lead to a similar draft-day drop for Manning in many draft rooms and thus place him into the value-pick realm.

thanks

Up. Thanks for keeping this going. Hopefully my travelling will slow down a bit now that summer is over, though I will be in Virginia for a few days...

Posted here.