Quote (magikod @ 19 Oct 2023 22:56)
Assuming you want the Bengals info, I'll post it below after the first bit. How many NFL players would return a first-round pick via trade?
I started thinking about this question last week, when I wrote my annual column consisting of trades that make sense for all parties involved. When I got to a swap for Minnesota's Danielle Hunter, I went back through history and found that single-season rental deals don't typically land first-rounders, even for talented edge rushers in or near the prime of their careers. As a player who is about to be a free agent and has a no-tag clause for 2024, Hunter was the definition of this kind of acquisition.
If Hunter wouldn't net a first-rounder, though, who would? Who would be worth two first-round picks? Three? Five? Seven? Ten? The vast majority of great NFL players aren't ever getting traded, but what would be fair value if they did? And how many players are actually worth first-rounders? About 13,000 words later, I found my answer: 102. That's roughly 6% of the league.
Because these players aren't going to be traded, I had to get a little creative with my logic. I treated salary cap charges and dead money as transferable in the way it would be in an expansion draft as opposed to the actual cap rules that apply when players get traded. We're considering what player value would look like in a vacuum as opposed to their specific spot on their specific roster.
The question I asked about every player was this: If an average team with an average roster had a hole at a given position, would history suggest it would trade an average first-round pick to acquire that player right now? I didn't consider whether the trading team would want to move that player, simply what his value would typically look like if that team did decide to make the trade. I did my best to use comparable deals from the past to inform those values while applying some common sense within the context of the modern league.
What I found, unsurprisingly, is that players who are valued as first-round picks are the ones you would expect. They typically play premium positions such as quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver and left tackle. They're younger than 30 and either still on their rookie deals or just beginning new extensions. They've established themselves as standouts at their positions and still have several peak seasons to go.
I also had to consider players who were taken high in the 2022 and 2023 drafts who haven't yet proved themselves as stars. Panthers quarterback Bryce Young is off to a slow start after being the No. 1 overall pick, but there's no question a quarterback-needy team would still offer a first-round pick to acquire him. As we get toward the bottom of Round 1 in those drafts, a majority of the league would be less likely to offer a first-round pick to acquire that player, so unproven players in the first 10 picks are more likely to still yield first-round values than players in the 25 to 32 range.
It's important to keep in mind that NFL trades aren't about talent. They're about leverage. You need talent to have leverage, but positional value, age and contracts matter a lot more in trades than pure talent alone. Think about the Jalen Ramsey swap from March, when the Rams were able to land from the Dolphins only a third-round pick and a backup tight end for a Hall of Fame-caliber cornerback in his late-20s. As players approach and pass the age of 30, their résumés need to be spotless to still land a first-round pick.
OK, enough preamble. I've gone team-by-team and detailed the players who fit into different tiers, ranging from the players who would land multiple first-rounders to the guys who would produce a single first-round pick via trade. I've also included some thoughts on notable players who missed the list for each team.
Cincinnati BengalsMultiple first-round picks: QB Joe Burrow. I don't think this one requires much explanation.
Two first-round picks: WR Ja'Marr Chase. Chase fits all the criteria for landing two first-rounders as a non-quarterback. He's young, has a credible case as the best player in football at his position and plays a premium spot in the lineup. He also has four more years of cost control remaining, with $8.3 million due between 2023 and 2024 before the possibility of two franchise tags in 2025 and 2026. He has a strong case alongside Dallas' Micah Parsons and Minnesota's Justin Jefferson as the most valuable non-quarterback in the sport.
One first-round pick: WR Tee Higgins. Higgins is capable of taking over games, but it's tougher to make a case that he's a top-10 player at wide receiver than it is for someone like A.J. Brown. Higgins' production is capped by Chase playing on the other side of the field, but it also likely leads to easier coverage looks and fewer double-teams. He is also a free agent after the season, so he's about to get expensive. I still think he would land a first-rounder, but there's a much bigger gap between Higgins and Chase's trade value than it might seem.
Missing out: The Bengals are built around a deep roster as opposed to building something top-heavy, which makes for a better football team than it does for trade value. DE Trey Hendrickson is an extremely productive pass-rusher when healthy, but at $16 million or so per year over the next three seasons, he's not a bargain.
I've been impressed by 2022 first-rounder Dax Hill, who has looked great as a deep safety after taking over for Jessie Bates. As a late first-round pick who didn't play much as a rookie, though, it's tough to believe he would still net a first-rounder from most of the NFL.
If you want a different team lmk, didn't want to copy and paste the entire thing lol