17. Arizona Cardinals
This all starts with CB Patrick Peterson. It's not often you find a player with the talent to both cover No. 1 receivers and return punts at a high level, and we nudged Arizona up accordingly. With LBs Sam Acho and O'Brien Schofield having another year of NFL experience under their belt, odds are the Cardinals will generate a better pass rush than they did last season. Dan Williams had a down year, but he's still one of the more physically gifted nose tackles in the game. The offense isn't as settled, but what's impressive is the sheer number of NFL-caliber players they can throw at you: QB John Skelton, WR Andre Roberts, WR Michael Floyd, TE Rob Housler and RBs Beanie Wells and LaRod Stephens-Howling. We have to reward that quantity, even if most of that group hasn't made a huge impact yet.



18. Cleveland Browns
Last year, we had the Browns ranked sixth mostly on the strength of CB Joe Haden, QB Colt McCoy, RB Peyton Hillis and C Alex Mack. Haden (23) appeared to have a down year in 2011 by shutdown-cornerback standards, but his 18 passes defensed alongside zero interceptions was a massive statistical anomaly. Mack also did his part, giving up only .5 blown blocks sacks on the year. Unfortunately, at 26 years old, he no longer qualifies for our rankings.

McCoy (25) and Hillis (26), however, regressed considerably, so the team drafted Brandon Weeden to unseat McCoy and Trent Richardson to replace Hillis, who signed with Kansas City. Our Lewin Career Forecast projects Weeden as the fifth-best quarterback prospect in this year's draft, but his age (28) and slow release are concerns. However, the 2012 draft also produced RT Mitchell Schwartz, who will step into the starting lineup immediately.



19. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are stacked with young guys who played a big role last year. RB Ray Rice is your headliner, but CB Jimmy Smith (who was excellent in our charting stats last year), WR Torrey Smith, TE Ed Dickson and DT Terrence Cody also gave the team a lot of productive snaps. DE Pernell McPhee generated a ton of pressure in limited action, and we even think T Jah Reid could develop into a decent player. The Ravens suffer a bit in the ratings because they just didn't give many snaps to youngsters outside of those seven. Still, that's an enviable young core, especially once LB Courtney Upshaw is added to it.



20. Dallas Cowboys
Tyron Smith was an instant hit at right tackle and should be a building block on the offensive line for years to come. Phil Costa's snaps were a source of comedy at times last season, but even if he has to move inside to guard, the Cowboys have to like what they saw of him overall. Like their colleagues in Washington, they should be able to cobble a decent run game together between Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray, two young backs. Oh, and did we mention WR Dez Bryant? The Cowboys still have a few long-term holes to start digging their way out of, but with CBs Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr in tow, the secondary looks much better than it did in February.



21. Washington Redskins
We are unabashed RG3 boosters. He had one of the two highest Lewin Career Forecast scores in the history of the system. However, the cost of trading up to get him, as well as decades of bad drafting by Bruce Allen's predecessors, mean that the cupboard around him is mostly bare. Stars and scrubs continues to be the theme in Landover. DE Brian Orakpo graduates our list and is replaced by Ryan Kerrigan. Between Roy Helu and Evan Royster there are probably a few good seasons of rushing to be found. LT Trent Williams is good, if injury-prone, and Perry Riley stepped in nicely at linebacker at midseason. Griffin III will probably be worth his weight in gold, but beyond him, players without questions are hard to find. And this ranking will probably plummet further in future years as the Redskins struggle to find worthy young players without first-round picks.



22. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars' young talent is all about quantity over quality. On both sides of the ball their youngsters affect the passing game, which we like. However, LT Eugene Monroe (25) gave up 8.3 blown-block sacks in 2011 and QB Blaine Gabbert (23) looked like a deer in the headlights at times last season. Gabbert finished 46th in passing DYAR (defensive yards above replacement, explained here) in 2011 and had the 10th-most number of long sacks in the league (i.e., sacks 3.0 seconds or more after the snap). If Monroe and Gabbert don't show progress, then it's a wonder how first-round pick Justin Blackmon (22) will have much of an impact in his rookie season.

Second-round DE Andre Branch (23) will start in his rookie year, but our SackSEER projection ranks him as only the fifth-best pass-rushing prospect coming out of April's draft. DT Tyson Alualu is coming off knee surgery after a season in which he gave up the most yards per running play among Jacksonville's starting front seven for the second year in a row.



23. Minnesota Vikings
The good news is WR Percy Harvin apparently backed off his stance of missing camp; the bad news is the Vikings don't have much else settled at this point. They get a quarterback boost from Christian Ponder, though he was much more notable for his running ability than his throwing ability last season. Toby Gerhart filled in admirably for Adrian Peterson, and we have TE Kyle Rudolph pegged as a real fantasy sleeper coming into 2012. Most of the rest of Minnesota's youth toils in the secondary and in the immortal paraphrased words of Rodney Dangerfield, "Whoa, put [them] back in, [they're] not done yet."



24. St. Louis Rams
The Rams have teamed the developing pass-rush skills of DE Robert Quinn with a bevy of picks designed to help them have a top-flight passing game. Despite that, QB Sam Bradford is still looking for his first season with an above-average DVOA. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average metric, explained here.) Last year, the Rams employed two tight ends, four receivers and a left tackle (Rodger Saffold) who qualified for this list. Chris Givens and Brian Quick bring the total number of receivers up to six. The talent is there, but until the results follow, it's not enough to get the Rams out of the bottom 12.



25. Miami Dolphins
If the Steelers are heavily dependent on their offensive line for these ratings, the Dolphins are heavily dependent on their secondary. Between Vontae Davis and Sean Smith, Miami has a starting cornerback duo that would make any team envious. S Reshad Jones and CB Nolan Carroll have also earned prominent roles in the secondary, and Mike Pouncey came in and started 16 games at center as a rookie. We don't think anyone would argue that QB Ryan Tannehill is as good of a prospect as Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III, but last year nobody thought Cam Newton would adjust easily to the professional ranks either. It's hard to tell with quarterbacks until you see them on the field -- which might not happen for Miami in 2012.



26. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh has spent heavily over the past few drafts in an attempt to fix its offensive line. Between C Maurkice Pouncey, G David DeCastro, T Marcus Gilbert and T Mike Adams, the Steelers might do the unthinkable: give Ben Roethlisberger enough time to throw a ball unmolested. Beyond that, though, much of the Steelers' value on this list is in running pieces such as Rashard Mendenhall and David Johnson. We think very highly of CB Cortez Allen and DE Ziggy Hood, but if they are the top two young players on your defense, that's a bit troubling.



27. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have a lot of their value tied up in one player: RB Ryan Mathews, who looks poised to become a perennial top-5 fantasy football pick, as long as he can stay healthy. Wideout Vincent Brown is promising and should see more action this year. They've also got a pair of decent young starters in LB Donald Butler and G Louis Vasquez but need leaps from highly drafted players such as DT Corey Liuget and CB Marcus Gilchrist to really start ascending the list. LB Jonas Mouton, a 2011 second-rounder, could join the fray quickly after missing last year to injury, and if the Chargers got as big of a steal as some experts are predicting by finding DE Melvin Ingram with the 18th overall pick, it wouldn't be a major surprise to see them 10 slots higher next season.



28. Atlanta Falcons
Trading massive piles of draft picks for WR Julio Jones might yet be proven to be a terrific idea, but doing so has left this team with only a few eggs to place in their young-player basket. Jones, obviously, has a chance to be one of the best receivers in the NFL as soon as this year. Sean Weatherspoon, likewise, had a fantastic season for Atlanta in 2011 and should be a mainstay at linebacker.

After those two, it gets murky. LB Akeem Dent was a very good special teams player last year, but we have no real statistical track record to say that he'll be an adequate replacement for Curtis Lofton. G Joe Hawley, RB Jacquizz Rodgers and DT Corey Peters comprise the best of the rest. Then again, at least the Falcons have a team that can win now, which somewhat excuses their lack of young depth.



29. Buffalo Bills
Marcell Dareus was an enormous addition as a rookie, notching 5.5 sacks despite playing some 3-4 nose tackle last season. Beyond him, the Bills had more questions than answers. CB Aaron Williams is going to be a contributor in their secondary, but RB C.J. Spiller is blocked by Fred Jackson, and the addition of Cordy Glenn in the draft could place LT Chris Hairston on the bench or at a different position. WR Donald Jones has been rather inconsistent, and the rest of the Bills' youth movement focuses an awful lot on quantity over quality -- or at least that's how it has gone so far.



30. New York Jets
Remember what we just said about free-agent signings affecting the U-25 list? Well, at least DE Aaron Maybin actually started games and was productive at times -- he's still really a supporting edge rusher on a good team, but New York hasn't found that premium pass-rusher yet. WR Jeremy Kerley made our top 25 prospects list (coming Tuesday), and DT Muhammad Wilkerson and CB Kyle Wilson are a pair of decent, young building blocks for the defense. But nobody knows quite what to make of DE Quinton Coples, so forgive us for taking the same wait-and-see approach that he took toward going after quarterbacks in his senior season at North Carolina.



31. Chicago Bears
With the graduation of RB Matt Forte and WR Johnny Knox, the Bears have very little youth on offense to fall back on. J'Marcus Webb still qualifies at tackle, but even if you are Mike Tice, sole believer in Webb's potential, Webb has yet to post a season worth crowing about. Gabe Carimi had to deal with injuries in his rookie season, and outside of Chicago's young safety tandem of Chris Conte and Major Wright, none of their young defenders managed to start multiple games in 2011.

Wide receivers Alshon Jeffery (age 22) and Brandon Marshall should help rejuvenate this team's passing game, but at the cost of two third-round picks, the Bears will again be at a disadvantage when draft day rolls around next season.



32. New Orleans Saints
Obviously they didn't know this at the time, but given the fact that the Saints were forced to forfeit multiple high picks in light of the bounty scandal, the trade up for Mark Ingram looks even sillier in retrospect. New Orleans now employs four solid running backs in Ingram, Chris Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles. To make matters worse, Ingram was dinged up last year and made even less of an impact than you would expect given the other solid players at his position.

Malcolm Jenkins is a fine safety, but Patrick Robinson continued to struggle at corner, and Cameron Jordan notched just one sack in 15 starts. Perhaps Martez Wilson's conversion to defensive end will help raise the tide, but there isn't much help coming in future drafts due to the aforementioned punishment.

In short, this is a team that very much needs to win now. Which is why it's a good thing Drew Brees is now signed.

Eff u lamar part 2

This post was edited by JeanR on Jul 16 2012 11:15pm

#1 insider Jean, your reign is over bro.

I'm not numone

Oh, I see we have a sore loser.

some plz.idk if its a long article



http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story?id=8177010&_slug_=nfl-mel-kiper-breaks-nfc-west-summer-additions&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2fstory%3fid%3d8177010%26_slug_%3dnfl-mel-kiper-breaks-nfc-west-summer-additions

Never saw this post

Every summer, with the NFL draft and free agency in the rearview mirror, I take a look at each team. What did it accomplish in terms of added personnel? How did its draft fill holes? What voids remain? Let's jump around the league, addressing three things for each team:

• Help added: What the team has done this offseason to improve its prospects. Given my greatest area of expertise, I put a particular emphasis on the draft.
• Questions that remain: A look at what voids must be filled.
• Next year's help now: With an eye toward next year's draft class, which player from 2013 could seemingly help the team in 2012? This is meant to be hypothetical, a quick look at prospects to keep an eye on.

Here is the version for the NFC West:


Arizona Cardinals
Help added: Last year, Larry Fitzgerald led Cardinals pass-catchers with 153 targets. Trailing him, in a distant tie for second, were Early Doucet and Andre Roberts, a pair of good but not great younger receivers. Each was targeted only 98 times. In the same way the Atlanta Falcons decided they needed a potentially elite, high-ceiling pass-catcher to take some pressure off Roddy White (trading up for and then drafting Julio Jones in 2011), the Cardinals did the same in 2012. The draft addition of Michael Floyd, who plays at almost the identical height and weight of Fitzgerald, gives the Arizona passing game another major weapon. When he's playing at about 220 pounds or under, Floyd can't really be slowed by most corners, gets to where he needs to, uses his strong hands to snatch balls away from his body and has the quickness to separate. The combination of Floyd and Fitzgerald should mean few excuses for Arizona quarterbacks, at least in terms of options in the passing game. And for Roberts, a player I really liked coming out of The Citadel, and Doucet, it could mean some good matchups in the slot.

Where Cardinals passers have had excuses is in terms of pass protection. While it wasn't quite as bad as some have said, it certainly wasn't a strength. In the NFC West, every team the Cardinals face will have ways to get to the QB. The addition of guard Adam Snyder isn't terribly significant, but I did like the addition of Bobby Massie in the draft. A player with his skill set is a steal in Round 3, and I think he could get first-team time this season. Cornerback Justin Bethel is an interesting sleeper for them late. Elsewhere, the Cardinals are largely intact, which could be either a good thing ("They're growing") or a bad thing ("They were bad") based on what you saw last year. For me, it all goes to the next note …


Questions that remain: John Skelton sort of out-Tebowed Tim Tebow last year. Very quietly, he came on after Kevin Kolb got hurt and managed to go 5-2 as a starter, albeit with passing statistics reminiscent of Tebow. Put it this way: Skelton won some games, but he was still just 26th in Total QBR and didn't quite complete 55 percent of his passes. The problem for Arizona is he was actually an upgrade over Kolb. Now, it's probably unfair to say Kolb has been a disappointment. Nine total games just isn't enough to tell us much, and given the abbreviated preparations of last season, it made the situation even tougher. But 2012 is significant. Arizona used the draft to make sure Kolb has weapons, and if this offense can be better, I think the defense will take a step forward, too.

Next year's help now: David Amerson, CB, NC State
They have Patrick Peterson, but the secondary is dicey elsewhere, and Amerson is the best corner in college football.


San Francisco 49ers
Help added: If we're assuming the 49ers are comfortable with their situation at quarterback -- and despite a reported flirtation with Peyton Manning, Jim Harbaugh has been pretty clear about the fact he is -- then the 49ers' offseason could best be described as a process of simply mending what appeared to be the last few personnel question marks on the team. In free agency, the additions of Mario Manningham and Randy Moss were supposed to deepen the wide receiver corps, and the Niners went WR with their first pick in the draft, grabbing A.J. Jenkins out of Illinois in Round 1. I didn't think the team was dying for a big-play option in the backfield, with the emerging Kendall Hunter around, but they couldn't have done better than LaMichael James. They also added draft pieces at guard (Joe Looney) and safety (Trent Robinson) who could stick. They needed a little help at cornerback and Carlos Rogers came over from Washington. This was one of the better rosters in terms of overall talent when the season ended, and they might be even a little better to begin 2012. But that depends on how you feel about Alex Smith.

Questions that remain: Last season, Smith's greatest strength wasn't the great throws he made, it was the bad throws he didn't make. Not once last season did he throw more than one INT in a game, but he also threw just 17 TD passes, not an absurdly low total, but look at the list and you'll note most everyone below him didn't even play a full season. Of course, the only other QB who threw more than 400 passes with six or fewer INTs was Aaron Rodgers. (Rodgers threw 28 more TD passes.) I think the 49ers can win with Smith, but last year they also had an incredible turnover differential that won't be sustainable. The roster is largely intact, but the team has, in essence, created a "no excuses" personnel grouping on offense. They're saying, if you can't produce more with this, then we'll know you aren't the answer. Smith will have to do more, whether that turns into more production or more mistakes is the question.

One other question I have is how good Justin Smith can be. He was so good in 2011 that I felt he set the tone for the whole defense. He's probably the premier 3-4 DE in the NFL. That said, he'll be 33 in September, and you wonder how durable he can be. The 49ers aren't the same up front without him, but I think they need to consider how to preserve Justin Smith, and what they look like when he's not on the field.

Next year's help now: Bennie Logan, DT/DE LSU
A possible heir to Justin Smith, Logan could be dynamic as an inside rusher in a 3-4.


Seattle Seahawks
Help added: There's been a notable velocity with which Pete Carroll and John Schneider have remade the Seahawks' roster over the past 24 months. This year, I think it'll finally be time to really judge these guys on something more than growth. This is a team that, on paper, can be a winner if it can find some points and keep healthy in key spots. In terms of additions, it starts with Matt Flynn at quarterback. While Tarvaris Jackson is still around, and Russell Wilson deserves to be in the picture as a young player competing for the spot, Flynn has to be the starter in Week 1.

With Sidney Rice and Doug Baldwin, Seattle has an above-average tandem in the passing game, with the chance to be better. People should remember that Rice is still just 25, with a history of nicks that have limited him. So while I think it should be Flynn, "not enough weapons" can't be an excuse for anyone. I think we're all pretty interested to see how much of a pass rush Carroll can create with the addition of Bruce Irvin. I know evaluators who saw the lightning rod out of West Virginia as the best pure pass-rusher in the draft (which is partly a reflection of the class), and Seattle had to have taken Irvin with a specific role in mind. Carroll can use him as a Leo linebacker, with Chris Clemons as a possible model. Barrett Ruud provides some experience at linebacker and Jason Jones filled a hole at D-tackle. But the key is the rush, because consistent pressure could make an already good secondary look spectacular. It starts up front, and Irvin is the key for me.

Questions that remain: It's hard to blame the front office for erratic play from the offensive line. They've drafted with a purpose, grabbing Max Unger, Russell Okung, James Carpenter and John Moffitt relatively early in recent years. But health has been a major issue. I think the defense should keep the Seahawks in every game, but they simply have to get some continuity on the offensive line if they want the points to pile up. It's really not for lack of talent -- the guys in the trenches just need to stay healthy enough to improve as a unit.

Next year's help now: C.J. Mosley, ILB, Alabama
Seattle can get the linebacker it hoped Aaron Curry would be. It's hard to miss with the best defender on Nick Saban's team.


St. Louis Rams
Help added: The Rams have some notable high draft picks on the roster, with the likes of Sam Bradford, Chris Long, the disappointing Jason Smith and even Robert Quinn. This year, in dropping the No. 2 pick to the Redskins for a massive haul of current and future draft picks, they added what I consider a lot of keepers, some with major upside, with an emphasis on creating more depth in the roster. This is something rivals like San Francisco and Seattle have done in recent years. D-tackle Michael Brockers will need some development time, but he has a lot of talent and could be a very good player later in 2012 and into the next few seasons. Wide receiver Brian Quick is another high-upside player who I think needs more development than the Rams might want, but at least he's another target in a weapon-deficient passing game. Isaiah Pead provides explosiveness in the run game, a very good complement to Steven Jackson, and Trumaine Johnson could either hang on at corner or convert to safety. Even wideout Chris Givens is a keeper and could help early. The wild card will be Janoris Jenkins. If he can focus on football, this is a Pro Bowl talent. On instincts alone he can be very good; if off-the-field issues don't get in the way, he's a potential star.

The Rams had a draft where they got few guarantees, but it's hard to see them not getting some players, and for a team that really needed to upgrade overall talent, you could do a lot worse. Also, keep an eye on Kendall Langford, a sneaky-good pickup at defensive tackle.

Questions that remain: The concern for me isn't Bradford as a talent -- I've seen nothing that says he doesn't have the ability of a No. 1 pick -- it's whether he can continue to adapt. This will be his third offense in three years in the league, and for the third straight year, he has a below league-average cast of pass-catching talent to work with. The return of Danny Amendola is a good thing, but we're not talking about Wes Welker here. Last year, poor offensive line play was a problem, and I thought Bradford was often out of rhythm, and didn't deal well with the pressure, particularly when it was in his face. Hopefully, Scott Wells helps this group, and Rodger Saffold can progress and show some of the promise he held as a rookie. Mostly, I just hope the staff can work to Bradford's strengths. Last year was a disaster, an offense that was out of the range of the talent trying to execute it.

Next year's help now: Levine Toilolo, TE, Stanford
Lance Kendricks is a good player, but Bradford would love the option of a 6-foot-8 matchup nightmare.

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

I'm picking Thad Matta's team to win the Big Ten because I'm guessing the never gun-shy and always underrated Deshaun Thomas will get some help on offense. Is the key word there "guessing"? Absolutely, but at least it's an educated guess.

Aaron Craft looked quite comfortable and newly assertive on offense by the end of last season (even though on paper he was still a defensive specialist as a sophomore), and so too did Lenzelle Smith. Maybe 6-foot-8 sophomore LaQuinton Ross, ranked by some analysts as the best player in the nation as a high school sophomore, will finally deliver on his potential after recording just 35 total minutes as a freshman due to academic issues. (Though it's hardly an encouraging tea leaf that those minutes were spread across no fewer than nine games, suggesting Matta didn't think Ross was game-ready even if the freshman had been eligible.)

And if 6-11 sophomore Amir Williams blocks shots and pulls down offensive boards as a starter the way he did in cameo appearances last year, my educated guess will look pretty sound. Over the past three seasons, with rosters spanning both the Evan Turner and Jared Sullinger eras, Matta has never ranked worse than second in conference play in per-possession scoring margin. That's fairly amazing, and I expect to be amazed again in 2013.

2. Indiana Hoosiers

Indiana's defense last season wasn't as bad as you've heard. True, the Hoosiers ranked seventh in conference play on D, but allowing 1.06 points per possession in a league where the average is 1.04 isn't stop-the-presses awful. I'm just not sure further dramatic improvements on that side of the ball will be easily attained with a roster that doesn't figure to block or alter a lot of shots or dominate the defensive glass.

Tom Crean's foul-cessation campaign was a remarkable success in 2012, but that low-hanging fruit has already been picked. What we saw last season was a team that was close to average on defense (average being a good thing, given IU's recent history on D) in all categories but one: Opponents never committed turnovers.

So, yes, I expect another year of average D in Bloomington, but I'll be shocked if Indiana doesn't have the Big Ten's best offense in 2013. They held that distinction last year, Cody Zeller and Christian Watford are still around and McDonald's All-American Yogi Ferrell arrives as the presumptive starter at point guard.

Last point: Don't underestimate what incredible offense and mediocre defense can accomplish. Florida parlayed that combination into a national title in 2007. I can very easily envision Zeller getting my vote for 2013 National POY, and, somewhat more importantly, leading his team to Atlanta.

3. Michigan State Spartans

It got lost in the shuffle of a well-deserved season-long farewell to the incomparable Draymond Green (even players at archrival Michigan admit they want to be like Green), but MSU's strength last season was their absolutely superb field goal defense. So don't be surprised if Tom Izzo's D is outstanding again in 2013, even without Green. If that turns out to be true, be sure to pull up a chair when this team faces Indiana, because you'll very likely be looking at the two best units in the Big Ten: IU's offense and MSU's defense.

On offense, Michigan State figures to be led by 6-1 junior Keith Appling, 6-9 senior Derrick Nix, and 6-6 sophomore Branden Dawson, though of late, Izzo has been talking up incoming freshmen such as 6-4 shooting guard Gary Harris, 6-9 big man Matt Costello and 6-5 wing Denzel Valentine.

4. Michigan Wolverines

Let's start with Michigan's alleged question marks. (Ha. Ask Northwestern fans if they'd switch places.) While John Beilein's team shared the league title last season with Ohio State and Michigan State, in terms of how well the respective teams played offense and defense, the Buckeyes and Spartans were in fact clearly superior. And now Beilein, a coach whose teams are known to shoot an occasional 3, has lost three of his best perimeter shooters (Zack Novak, Stu Douglass and Evan Smotrycz).

True enough, but consider the following equally accurate assertions. Trey Burke will likely be a first-round pick next summer, and Tim Hardaway was Burke's co-pillar on offense for a team that, however they managed to swing it, did win a share of the title in the country's toughest conference. And then there's the fact that the incoming freshman class, headlined by 6-7 Glenn Robinson III and 6-10 Mitch McGary, ranks as one of the best in the nation. I may not be betting on a second consecutive Big Ten title for Michigan, but I love their chances to make it further in the NCAA tournament than they did last time around.

5. Wisconsin Badgers

Last season may have been the worst performance the Badgers have recorded on offense in Big Ten play since Bo Ryan arrived in Madison in 2001. That's a negative phrasing of a very positive fact, of course: Wisconsin has been almost unrelentingly outstanding on offense under Ryan. But in 2012, the Badgers were merely average on that side of the ball in 18 conference games, and they enter this season having lost their most effective source of points in Jordan Taylor.

That is not commonly a recipe for efficient scoring, but fans in Madison will remind you that Ryan had one of his finest seasons the year after Alando Tucker graduated. Ryan Evans, Jared Berggren, and highly regarded freshman wing Sam Dekker will try to repeat that particular performance for a team that figures to be very good on defense for a second consecutive season.

6. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota was a pretty good team trapped in a brutal league last season. Though Tubby Smith's team went just 6-12 in conference play, the Gophers did make it all the way to the NIT finals (where they were pummeled by Stanford). This season, Minnesota fully expects to return to the NCAA tournament after a two-year absence.

Getting there will require many more points and way fewer turnovers than what we saw from this team in 2012. Sixth-year senior Trevor Mbakwe is reportedly healthy after an ACL tear sidelined him for most of last season, and Rodney Williams is back for a final season as well. It's conceivable that both of these seniors in the 6-7 to 6-8 range could be first-round picks in 2013.

7. Purdue Boilermakers

For the first time since Carl Landry was running the floor at Mackey Arena, Matt Painter faces a new season without Robbie Hummel on his roster. To meet this challenge, the coach has very wisely loaded up on highly-rated freshmen. Ronnie Johnson, a 5-11 point guard, will get serious consideration as the starter now that Lewis Jackson has also departed.

The new Boilers can look good very quickly, at least on offense, if 6-5 senior D.J. Byrd can again drain 43 percent of his 3s. (It will also help if 6-2 junior Terone Johnson can improve his foul shooting, which coincidentally enough was also 43 percent.)

Strangely for a Purdue team, however, the problem last year was actually on defense. Maybe 7-0 freshman A.J. Hammons can provide some immediate help on that front.

8. Illinois Fighting Illini

Fresh from leading his Ohio Bobcats to the Sweet 16 (and nearly pulling off the upset against North Carolina), John Groce took the head coaching job at Illinois. In theory, the new coach inherits a relatively experienced roster, even with Meyers Leonard leaving early for the NBA, but the very fact that Groce is said to be "rebuilding" the program in Champaign means those veteran players have not been terribly effective thus far.

With the Illini last season -- and for several years prior to that -- the issue was simply too few points. Way too few points. This season, Tracy Abrams should see plenty of minutes at point guard, alongside backcourt mainstays D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul (who is recovering from a broken jaw suffered in the offseason). Groce has also brought in Coastal Carolina transfer Sam McLaurin, who will be eligible immediately.

9. Iowa Hawkeyes

Fran McCaffery lost just two seniors (Matt Gatens and Bryce Cartwright) from a team that went 4-1 against the upper-tier likes of Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin last season. That should presage good things to come, but first the Hawkeyes will need to toughen up on defense. In 2012, Big Ten opponents ate Iowa alive in the paint by grabbing offensive boards and scoring points in close. If the Hawkeyes can get some stops, McCaffery's claim that the 2013 NCAA tournament is "definitely achievable" could be proven correct. The nucleus of Roy Devyn Marble, Aaron White and Melsahn Basabe has shown it can get the ball in the basket, though the said nucleus will likely be relying on a freshman (Mike Gesell, Anthony Clemmons, or some combination thereof) to get them the ball.

10. Northwestern Wildcats

For two years running, Wildcat fans have suffered season-long anxiety attacks, as their beloved team came achingly close not once but twice to securing its first-ever NCAA tournament bid. That should change this season, though by that, I mean simply I'm not sure Northwestern will come close enough to a bid to get any purple-clad fan too worked up in March.

Bill Carmody still faces the same challenge he has always had in Evanston -- scoring enough points to offset a very permissive defense -- but he now does so without John Shurna. Drew Crawford will attempt to continue his highly efficient ways on offense in Shurna's absence, and Louisville transfer Jared Swopshire will try to shore up the D.

11. Penn State Nittany Lions

Pat Chambers says this season Tim Frazier and Southern Miss transfer D.J. Newbill will comprise "the best backcourt in the country." That's a tad generous to the young men in question, but Frazier in particular is a really interesting player. It is doubtful any junior in the history of the planet has ever seen his role expand as dramatically on offense as Frazier's did last season after Talor Battle's departure. More importantly, Frazier earned that expansion, serving as a truly outstanding point guard. If Frazier gets more of his 3s to fall (not an unrealistic expectation for a 79 percent free throw shooter), Trey Burke and Aaron Craft could have competition for the title of best point guard in the Big Ten.

12. Nebraska Cornhuskers

First-year coach Tim Miles inherits a team that had easily the worst offense in the league in 2012, and coming into this season, the lone returning starter is 6-10 senior Brandon Ubel. So Miles has his work cut out for him. Step one would be a team that's at least a little more adept at scoring points by the time the Huskers move into their sparkling new downtown arena for the 2013-14 season.