some?

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Q: Adam, I feel like this could be the season that Leonard Hankerson breaks out for the Washington Redskins. Who are some other potential breakout WRs this season?

-- Samantha (Virginia)

A: I'm not as high on Hankerson this season as you are, Samantha. Keep in mind, Washington invested a lot of money into Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan and has big hopes for each of those receivers. Plus, the Redskins still have Santana Moss. Now maybe Hankerson is good enough that he busts through that logjam at the position, but I don't see that happening this season. Every year brings breakout wide receivers. It sounds like there's the chance for a couple of young receivers in Houston, Lestar Jean and DeVier Posey, to make their mark. Some receivers in St. Louis, perhaps Brian Quick or Greg Salas, will have to emerge. And I think Denarius Moore has a chance to shine in Oakland and become a big-time wide receiver.

Q: Adam, the Green Bay Packers went 15-1 last year, but the defense gave up the most yards in NFL history. Is Ted Thompson planning to bring in anyone before training camp, or will he continue his pattern of just building through the draft? Also, will Dom Capers make any significant adjustments this season to try to improve the defense?

-- Daniel (Georgia)

A: First and foremost, Daniel, Capers still is one of the top defensive coordinators in the game. There are few people who know defense like him. He will figure out what to do this season. And you nailed it: The Packers invested their whole draft on defense. Their first six picks, starting with outside linebacker Nick Perry, came on the defensive side of the football. They're hoping that Perry, defensive tackle Jerel Worthy, cornerback Casey Hayward, defensive tackle Mike Daniels, strong safety Jerron McMillian and outside linebacker Terrell Manning come in and provide the Packers with some defensive punch. My three words of advice: Trust in Thompson.

Q: With all of the Kansas City Chiefs' moves this year in free agency and the draft, plus if players returning from injury don't miss a beat, how good could the Chiefs be this year?

-- Derrick (Ohio)

A: I like the Chiefs' roster, Derrick. Kansas City has done a good job of loading up. The problem is, when you break down the quarterbacks in that division, San Diego has Philip Rivers, Denver has Peyton Manning and Oakland has Carson Palmer. It's hard to see right now how Matt Cassel compares to those other three. Now maybe Cassel will come on this year; that's what the Chiefs are hoping. But in a quarterback-driven league, Kansas City is chasing the other teams in its division.

Q: Hey Adam, ESPN has Santana Moss ranked very, very low on their fantasy boards. Does it make sense that his production from last year, with Rex Grossman, will go down with Robert Griffin III this year? Couldn't he be looking at a Steve Smith kind of year with Cam Newton?

-- Josh (Massachusetts)

A: It wouldn't surprise me, Josh. Seems like Moss is discounted most years, and most years he produces more than people expect. Washington likes him, and he has RG3 as a quarterback. But, as mentioned above, the Redskins have a host of other targets now after addressing that area hard in free agency.

Q: How much does this season matter to the Philadelphia Eagles, Michael Vick and Andy Reid? There was already some talk last offseason, but do you think the Eagles could lure Bill Cowher out of retirement?

-- Brett (Florida)

A: I don't see that happening, Brett. The Eagles' front office went through some major reshuffling this offseason, and those moves only strengthened Reid's position there. Philadelphia is a lot like New York in that there are repeated calls for Reid's job, just as there were repeated calls for Tom Coughlin's job. How'd that work out with Coughlin and the Giants? My belief is that Reid will stay on in that job as long as he wants. Jeffrey Lurie will not fire him. When the time comes for Reid to go, whenever that is, it will be because he opts to go, not because the Eagles tell him to go.

halp

Wiseguys want to see how Peyton Manning will look in preseason for the Denver Broncos.
Last week, when sports books online and in Vegas posted season win totals for NFL teams, it was like opening day for the pro football betting season.

Forget about Super Bowl futures coming out the day after the big game is played. Those are for ultra-fans looking to back their favorite teams. Those pokes don't know betting value and they don't care about betting value. Putting $50 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win it all at 100-1 is no different than buying that retro pair of zebra-striped pants in orange, yellow and white.

But making season win total wagers requires more than a tricked-out van and season tickets. Season win totals are a man's game. Betting them requires confidence in a power rating that you've seasoned for years; it requires theories about how teams' turnover margins will regress to the mean. And these days, with places like Cantor Gaming listing point spreads for not only Week 1, but every game from Weeks 2-16, it requires knowing how to convert projected point spreads into win probability to a fraction of a win.

For example, the Eagles are favored by seven over the Browns in Week 1 and the price is minus-110. That equates to a 75 percent likelihood the Eagles will win. Convert that 75 percent to 0.75. Then do that for the other 15 games, add up all the numbers and you get a bettor's projected season win total on the Eagles. The fellas at Beyond the Bets did a nice post on this math, with help from the point spread to win probability converter from SBR.

When totals were posted last week there were some pickings that wiseguys ate up very quickly.

At the Las Vegas Hotel, they hit the Cleveland Browns over 4.5 wins, Houston Texans over 9.5 wins, the New England Patriots under 12.5 wins, the Seattle Seahawks over seven wins and the St. Louis Rams over 5.5 wins. "The last two of those got the most attention," bookmaker Jeff Sherman emailed me.

Some of the bets were based on opinion; many wiseguys truly believe the Texans should have been in the Super Bowl last year and had them rated as the NFL's best team when Matt Schaub was injured. Despite losing Mario Williams, as long as Schaub is healthy, the Texans remain a favorite choice. "The Texans is just a bad number by the bookmakers," two-time SuperContest winner Fezzik told me Tuesday afternoon. "Based on my projections I have them at 10.2 wins."

More than one has also told me that they think this is a bounce-back year for the Rams, given a healthy roster, coaching upgrade and easier schedule than last season. "That is a combo that allows them to exceed expectations," Fezzik says. "This is a great bet."

But there were plenty of moves made because of a half-game or full game difference from one book to another. "Those had nothing to do with opinions," Sherman wrote. "It was only about what we had versus MGM and Cantor Gaming."

That is what professionals do: They shop, they look for opportunities, they bet prices as much as they bet on the teams. They also recognize patterns the rest of us might never consider.

For example, the Philadelphia Eagles are once again one of the handful of teams being projected to finish with double-digit wins. (They are at 10.5 victories, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers; the Pats are at 12.5 and the Green Bay Packers are at 12.) Fezzik has them power-rated, "off the charts," he says. "But it's still risky to bet them. They have a papier-mache QB and, more importantly, a scheduling quirk that goes against them. For three straight games early in the year, they play teams coming off of byes. That is rough if you need this team to get to 11 wins."

“
The Texans is just a bad number by the bookmakers. Based on my projections I have them at 10.2 wins.

”
-- Fezzik, two-time SuperContest winner
Lots of guys bet the Patriots under 12.5, but this is one Fezzik decided to pass on. "This number is ridiculously high and normally I would bet under. But you don't make money betting against Belichick," he says. "Defense is such a concern, but the Pats have a real easy schedule. I have them with the easiest schedule in the NFL based on my power ratings. To be honest, anyone who does this for a living, no matter the variation in their power rating, will have them as having the easiest schedule. The second easiest is Green Bay. The logic is simple: They don't have to play themselves. Buffalo has to play New England twice, but New England gets to play Buffalo twice."

At this point, a week removed from the postings, most of the numbers have settled like an old house in a bad real estate market: There isn't much value left. But there is at least one relatively high-profile player whose team is leaving bettors full of confusion and dismay.

"I just won't play the Broncos yet," Fezzik says. "I won't think about them until the third game of the preseason, after [Peyton] Manning has played some real snaps with the first team."

Funny, that used to be when the NFL betting season started.

E: I have insider for the next year or so. Feel free to PM me if anyone wants sum insider articles PM'd their way.

This post was edited by JeanR on Jul 3 2012 09:42pm

Most overrated AFC players | Most overrated NFC players
To paraphrase a John Facenda line, the NFL offseason is a time of hope. It isn't hard to look over the personnel changes that occurred in free agency and the draft and find a path for mediocre teams to become playoff contenders or for playoff contenders to become Super Bowl champions.

That type of positive mindset can be useful, but it can also be damaging when it comes to grading personnel, as it can make mediocre players seem good and good players seem great.

Those types of personnel grading errors cannot and should not go unchallenged, so let's take a look at six players in the AFC whose hype levels exceed their performance levels.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco put himself on this list by saying in an April radio interview that he thinks he is the best quarterback in the NFL.

That he isn't the best field general in the league comes as no surprise, but Flacco's 2011 season doesn't even place him in the upper half of the league. His 9.6 vertical yards per attempt mark (VYPA -- which measures success on passes 11-plus yards downfield) ranked tied for 25th, and his 10.7 stretch vertical YPA (SVYPA -- passes over 20 yards downfield) ranked 26th.

To get an idea of just how bad those totals were, they each ranked dead last or tied for last in the AFC North. That's right, the Browns' passing offense of Colt McCoy and a bunch of underachieving wideouts posted equal or better downfield productivity passing numbers than Flacco did while throwing to a wide receiving corps that included Anquan Boldin and standout rookie Torrey Smith.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

Gresham certainly showed some potential at times last year, but the blunt truth is that his numbers fell quite short of the Pro Bowl nomination he was given.

His metrics by route depth illustrate this:

Jermaine Gresham's Routes by Depth, 2011 season
Category Attempts Yards YPA
Short (1-10 yds) 56 265 4.7
Medium (11-19 yds) 24 209 8.7
Deep (20-29 yds) 8 122 15.3
Bomb (30+ yds) 0 0 0.0
Vertical (M, D, 32 330 10.3
Stretch vertical (D, 8 122 15.3
Overall total 88 596 6.8
The 4.7 short pass YPA was tied for the fourth-lowest total among tight ends in that category, and the 8.7 medium YPA ranked 30th. Gresham was tied for 12th in the deep pass YPA metric, but didn't have a single bomb pass thrown his way all season.

Those last three metrics combined to give Gresham a 10.3 VYPA that ranked 23rd among all qualifying tight ends (32-plus targets needed to qualify) and 12th out of 20 tight ends that had at least 25 vertical targets. They also helped add up to a mediocre 6.8 overall YPA that ranked 29th in the league.

What those numbers show is that Jared Cook (10.8 overall YPA, 19.8 VYPA, 74 targets) and Aaron Hernandez (8.8 overall YPA, 14.8 VYPA, 109 targets) would both have made for better AFC Pro Bowl tight end candidates last year. Even the much maligned Dustin Keller would have been a better pick considering that he bested Gresham in all but one of the metric categories, and did so on a much larger target volume (111, tied for sixth-most among tight ends).

Champ Bailey, CB, Denver Broncos

It's hard to knock Bailey at some level because one always wants to pay respect to an elder statesman of the league, but he was nowhere near deserving of his Pro Bowl nomination last year. His 7.8 overall YPA ranked tied for 47th in that metric and his 12.8 VYPA (tied for 73rd) was downright abysmal.

D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T, New York Jets

Ferguson has the talent to be a great player, but he repeatedly failed to perform at that level last year. ESPN.com AFC East blogger James Walker agreed with this assessment, not only by not naming Ferguson to his 2011 All-AFC East team but also by saying that Ferguson "struggled at times this season and didn't play up to his usual standards" and suggesting that Ferguson's Pro Bowl berth was based on his "reputation and name recognition" as opposed to his level of play. For those needing more than the scout's-eye test, consider this: Ferguson gave up more sacks than pass-blocking liability Wayne Hunter.

Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland Raiders

Moore burst onto the NFL scene as rookie by posting a 14.5 SVYPA that ranked 13th out of 30 wide receivers that posted at least 20 stretch vertical targets. Moore totaled 50 vertical targets, a number that placed him in a four-way tie for 28th place among wide receivers in that metric. The three wideouts he was tied with? Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings and Julio Jones, all three of whom are terrific vertical targets.

The problem for Moore is that he has yet to display any type of ability to beat tough competition. As noted in my 2012 fantasy football guide, when Moore was covered by red- or yellow-rated cornerbacks (the two best cornerback ratings), he was a non-factor. His 4.0 YPA against that coverage level was 46th out of 47 wide receivers with at least 30 targets under the same circumstances.

Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland Browns

Haden was a shutdown cornerback in 2010, as his 6.2 overall YPA that season ranked tied for 18th-best in that metric. His 2011 campaign was another matter entirely, as Haden ranked 51st in overall YPA (8.0), 59th in VYPA (11.0) and 65th in SVYPA (14.4). This wasn't a matter of a low target volume skewing the numbers, either, as Haden's 77 targets last year ranked tied for the 23rd-highest total among cornerbacks in that metric.



To paraphrase a John Facenda line, the NFL offseason is a time of hope. It isn't hard to look over the personnel changes that occurred in free agency and the draft and find a path for mediocre teams to become playoff contenders or for playoff contenders to become Super Bowl champions.

That type of positive mindset can be useful, but it can also be damaging when it comes to grading personnel, as it can make mediocre players seem good and good players seem great.

Those types of personnel grading errors cannot and should not go unchallenged, so let's take a look at seven players in the NFC whose hype levels exceed their performance levels.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Newton's backers would defend his Pro Bowl nomination last year by quoting that Newton set a single-season record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback (14) and became the first player to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 500 yards in a season.

Those are impressive marks on their face but they are quantity-based and occurred after a lockout-truncated offseason. As I mentioned in my fantasy football draft guide, the lockout hurt defenses' ability to practice blitzes, which was a primary factor in why passing offenses were so explosive early on.

This impacted Newton as much as anyone, as he threw for 374 or more yards in three of his first four games. Once defenses started to get up to speed, however, Newton wasn't close to as effective a passer, throwing for 208 or fewer yards in five of his last six games.

These defensive adjustments are a main reason why Newton came up short in the areas of vertical yards per attempt (10.5, tied for 21st) and stretch vertical yards per attempt (12.6, tied for 17th). (Note: Vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield; stretch vertical passes are thrown 20 or more yards.)

Newton also came up well short in ESPN's Total QBR metric (56.6, ranked 16th) and he posted a 4.2 percent bad decision rate (BDR) that was the fifth-highest mark in that category last season. (Note: BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover such as a dropped interception.)

There is little doubt Newton's incredible drive will, when combined with his talent, make him a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback in the future, but he isn't quite there yet.

Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's decision to put Asomugha in a zone scheme early in the season was a mistake. But Asomugha isn't on this list because he had a season that didn't match some of his better campaigns in Oakland. His 8.2 overall YPA ranked tied for 57th out of 85 qualifying cornerbacks (32-plus targets to qualify). He was also subpar in vertical coverage (10.0 VYPA, tied for 48th) and in stretch vertical coverage (14.0 SVYPA, ranked 61st).

[+] Enlarge
Dale Zanine/US Presswire
Should Tony Gonzalez still be a Pro Bowler?
Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons

It's hard to justify someone making the Pro Bowl when he ranked tied for 23rd in YPA (7.6) and was one of the least productive high-volume vertical targets at his position (9.9 VYPA, ranked 12th out of 17 tight ends with at least 30 vertical targets). Had Fred Davis not been suspended for the last four games of the regular season, it's quite likely he would have been selected for the Pro Bowl over Gonzalez, as he had a better overall YPA (9.4, ranked sixth among tight ends) and VYPA (11.7).

Brandon Browner, CB, Seattle Seahawks

Browner made the Pro Bowl on the strength of his six interceptions, but he had abysmal coverage metrics and was a penalty machine. He was terrible against short passes (6.7 YPA, ranked 72nd), vertical passes (11.3 VYPA, ranked 63rd) and stretch vertical passes (14.8 SVYPA, ranked 66th). Plus, one of his interception returns for a touchdown was a gift, due more to the highly inaccurate arm of Bears quarterback Caleb Hanie than any action on Browner's part. All Browner did was drop back into zone coverage and catch a pass that was thrown right to him.

Michael Bush, RB, Chicago Bears

The Bears gave Bush a four-year contract worth up to $14 million (with $7 million guaranteed) in an effort to give them leverage in the Matt Forte contract negotiation. Since Bush's 6.8 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) mark ranked tied for 40th in that metric and was far below Forte's 10.7 GBYPA mark that ranked second, perhaps Chicago should have directed those dollars toward getting Forte signed instead of spending them on a low-upside insurance policy. (Note: GBYPA measures a ball carrier's productivity when given good blocking, which is roughly defined as when the offense does not allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt.)

DeAngelo Hall, CB, Washington Redskins

Not long ago, the question about Hall that had to be asked was how did he make the Pro Bowl with such a terrible metric record (as he did in 2010 despite posting an 11.3 YPA that ranked 96th in the league)?

Hall didn't get that postseason honor this past year, which speaks well for the voters of that award since Hall's 14.4 VYPA was tied for fourth highest in the league and led to his 10.1 overall YPA that ranked tied for 74th.

Since this is the second year in a row Hall has posted horrible metrics, instead of asking if he is Pro Bowl worthy, maybe another question should be asked: How does this guy still have a starting job in the NFL?

David Akers, K, San Francisco 49ers

It's true that Akers was incredibly accurate on kicks of 39 or fewer yards (he made 31 out of 32), but he wasn't anywhere near as good on long-distance kicks. Akers' 13-for-20 performance on kicks of 40 yards or more equates to a 65 percent conversion rate that ranked 12th out of 13 kickers with at least 15 field goal attempts from that distance. From a quantity standpoint, he was worthy of the NFC Pro Bowl kicker spot, but from a quality perspective, Akers fell quite short.

Plz, Ty

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Why do you always want the long ass articles

1. New England Patriots
Truth be told, our statistical analysis last year said the Patriots had the best 25-and-under talent in 2011, but we went with our gut instead. Lesson learned. New England had 15 significant contributors last season who qualify this season as well, but we really need only to discuss the three who helped produce the No. 3 offensive DVOA in the league. If you can believe it, tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are still only 23 years old. Whether we look at standard or advanced stats, Gronkowski had a record-setting season: He was the first tight end ever to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, and also had the best receiving DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) for any tight end since 1991. To put the latter in perspective, the second-through-fourth-best tight end seasons were clustered at 357 or 358 DYAR; Gronkowski beat that by about 100 (459).

Of course, lest we forget Hernandez in New England's double-shot of matchup nightmares; he led all tight ends by breaking 21 tackles and he actually carried the ball 11 times in the team's final five games. Nate Solder (24) helped make huge tight end seasons possible by giving up only 2.5 blown-block sacks in his rookie year. With the retirement of Matt Light, Solder will switch from right tackle to left tackle, further increasing his value.

Finally, the Patriots added LB Dont'a Hightower (22) and DE Chandler Jones (22) in the draft, both of whom should contribute this season and in the future.

Times are good in New England.


2. Detroit Lions
Last year, Detroit was ranked only fifth on this list mostly because of concerns about QB Matthew Stafford's throwing shoulder. Well, Stafford put those concerns to rest, finishing 2011 in the top 10 in both DVOA and DYAR, so here the Lions sit at No. 2. Although Calvin Johnson is the obvious lynchpin, the growth of second-year slot receiver Titus Young (23) and the return of injured running backs Jahvid Best (23) and Mikel Leshoure (22) should allow Detroit's offense to maintain -- if not improve -- its No. 10 DVOA from last season. First-round tackle Riley Reiff is the Lions' left tackle of the future but is talented enough to beat out the underwhelming Gosder Cherilus for Detroit's starting right tackle job this season.

Most of the Lions' 25-and-under talent on defense is involved heavily in the running game, which is one reason the unit improved from 27th to 18th in run defense DVOA. DT Ndamukong Suh (25) needs no introduction, but less-heralded youngsters like LB DeAndre Levy (25) and in-the-box safeties Louis Delmas (25) and Amari Spievey (24) each contributed their fair share. As a center fielder in pass defense, Delmas doesn't get his hands on too many balls (three passes defensed and zero interceptions the past two seasons), but he also doesn't get beat deep. His value was on full display in the last six games of last season, when the Lions' pass defense basically fell apart without him.



3. Cincinnati Bengals
QB Andy Dalton (25) and WR A.J. Green (24) didn't disappoint in their rookie seasons. The former was the only other player besides Newton to garner votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the latter made the Pro Bowl. Dalton played his best on third downs (38.9 percent DVOA) and in the red zone (28.0 percent DVOA), while Green had a 57 percent catch rate and dropped only two passes all year despite having 39 percent of his targets come 16 or more yards downfield. Cincinnati also has two other young pieces in the pass offense with TE Jermaine Gresham (24) and RT Andre Smith (25).

The Bengals' run defense improved from 25th to 16th in DVOA thanks in large part to the play of middle linebacker Rey Maualuga (25) and DT Geno Atkins (24), the latter of whom also led the team in sacks. DE Carlos Dunlap (23) was a force as a situational pass-rusher, producing a team-leading 13 quarterback hits and 20.5 hurries to go along with his four sacks. Cincinnati's pass defense ranked 18th in DVOA despite the front seven finishing 10th in adjusted sack rate, which spoke to problems on the back end. To help remedy that, the Bengals selected CB Dre Kirkpatrick in the first round of April's draft.



4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The 2011 Buccaneers were a cautionary tale for those of us who take pride in these rankings. Tampa Bay was our No. 1 team last year, but virtually every youngster we cited ended up playing worse than advertised. Franchise QB Josh Freeman (24) threw 16 more interceptions than he did in 2010 and fell from inside the top 10 in DYAR and DVOA to outside the top 30. Freeman's No. 1 target, WR Mike Williams (25), had nearly 200 fewer receiving yards and eight fewer touchdowns than in 2010 despite an identical number of catches (65). RB LeGarrette Blount (26), though not a qualifier this year, lost his job thanks to a case of fumblitis. Hey, it's not all bad. Rookie Doug Martin, who had the fourth-highest speed score among this year's backs, replaces Blount in the starting lineup.

On defense, it was the same story. CB E.J. Biggers (24) allowed 4.4 yards per pass more than he did in 2010 and dropped from 13th to 76th in success rate. DE Da'Quan Bowers (22) finished third on the team in quarterback hurries despite limited playing time for most of the season, but he tore his Achilles tendon two months ago. LB Geno Hayes (25) was solid against the run once again, but he took his talents to the Windy City this offseason.

Defensive tackle Gerald McCoy (24) tore his biceps (again) and ended up starting only six games. If there was any silver lining to the Buccaneers' black cloud last year, it was the promising play of young starters DE Adrian Clayborn (24), DT Brian Price (23) and LB Mason Foster (24). Add in first-round strong safety Mark Barron and the situation seems even less depressing.



5. Green Bay Packers
Given that the Packers finished 2011 with the third-best pass offense DVOA since 1991, it's not surprising that the vast majority of their 25-and-under talent resides on that unit. Tight end Jermichael Finley has finished in the top 11 of both DVOA and DYAR for the past three seasons. RT Bryan Bulaga (23) has surrendered only 5.0 blown-block sacks in two years. His counterpart, LT Marshall Newhouse (25), assumed the left tackle position in place of an injured Chad Clifton (released in April) before he was ready, so his team-leading 9.0 blown-block sacks aren't as much of a concern as they otherwise would be.

On defense and special teams, Morgan Burnett (23) was involved in nearly 14 percent of the Packers' defensive plays last season, making him one of the most active safeties in the league. First-round pick Nick Perry will start opposite Clay Matthews at outside linebacker. In a down year for pass-rushing prospects, Perry was No. 1, according to SackSEER (SackSEER is Football Outsiders' projection system for pass-rushers, explained here.)". Randall Cobb (22) might be fifth on the depth chart at wide receiver, but he was the third-most valuable kickoff returner last year (6.4 expected points added), as well as the seventh-most valuable punt returner (4.7 expected points added).



6. Philadelphia Eagles
The bell cow of Philadelphia's 25-and-under talent is RB LeSean McCoy, who astonishingly is still only 24 years old. McCoy led all backs in rushing DYAR last season after finishing fourth in 2010. As a rookie starter, C Jason Kelce (25) helped open holes for McCoy and also did a good job of protecting QB Michael Vick (only one blown-block sack allowed). WR DeSean Jackson, who just missed our cut at age 26, might produce more fodder for highlight reels, but according to our metrics, Jeremy Maclin (24) has actually been a more efficient and more valuable wideout for Philadelphia over the past two seasons.

On defense, strong safety Kurt Coleman and free safety Nate Allen are both younger than 26. Coleman was merely adequate as the replacement for former starter Quintin Mikell. It was Allen, however, who showed a huge improvement from his rookie season, finishing first among safeties in success rate on pass coverage. Philadelphia's revamped front seven in 2012 includes two rookies who will see significant playing time. Second-round pick Mychal Kendricks has been handed the starting strongside linebacker job as a rookie. First-rounder Fletcher Cox might unseat 2011 starter Mike Patterson at defensive tackle, but even if he doesn't, he'll be heavily involved in the rotation.



7. Tennessee Titans
The Titans offense was already replete with young talent in the passing game even before they drafted WR Kendall Wright (Baylor) in the first round. Jake Locker (24) is the heir apparent at quarterback, and Kenny Britt (24) is the star apparent at wide receiver despite his 2011 knee injury. Jared Cook, one of our top 25 prospects last season showed flashes of top-10 tight end performance at times, which was expected given his physical makeup. The only significant question mark is WR Damian Williams (24), who only caught 48 percent of passes thrown his way despite more than three-quarters of them being within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage.

On defense, six of 11 starters are 25 or younger, and the emerging talent is spread out across all positions. DT Jurrell Casey (23) proved to be a stout run defender during his rookie season. Linebackers Akeem Ayers (23) and Colin McCarthy (24) led the team in defeats last year and both were ranked in the top 20 among linebackers with respect to run-stop rate. With the loss of CB Cortland Finnegan, Alterraun Verner (24) will join Jason McCourty (25) in the starting lineup. Verner played in nickel packages and posted the 13th-best success rate in the NFL. McCourty was one of the most targeted corners in the league last season, but he held his own, ranking 37th in success rate. The Titans secondary suffered from a lack of interceptions last season, but it wasn't for a lack of effort from McCourty and Verner: They combined for 25 passes defensed.



8. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton almost single-handedly vaults the Panthers into our No. 8 spot. A 15th-ranked DYAR and 16th-ranked DVOA for a quarterback at age 22 has that effect. Unfortunately for Panthers fans, there isn't much more 25-and-under talent. Jonathan Stewart (25) was one of the most productive (fourth in run DYAR) and efficient (second in run DVOA) backs in the NFL last season, but he's busy splitting time with DeAngelo Williams. Byron Bell (23) started 12 games at right tackle in place of an injured Jeff Otah, but led last year's line in blown-block sacks allowed (5.0). CB Captain Munnerlynn (24) ranked near the bottom of the league in coverage success rate and adjusted yards per target.



9. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders got the second-least expected value out of the 2012 draft, so their ranking here is based almost exclusively on the under-25 talent of 2011. Aside from DE Lamarr Houston (25) and middle linebacker Rolando McClain (23), that talent is on offense. In the running game, Darren McFadden has built up quite a résumé when healthy and is only 25 years old. C Stefen Wisniewski (23) anchors the blocking in front of him. Both starting wide receivers also qualify for our list. Although nearly certain to be a draft bust given expectations, 2009 first-rounder Darrius Heyward-Bey "broke out" in his third season, improving his DYAR ranking by 42 spots. The revelation, however, was 2011 fifth-round pick Denarius Moore, who will start at split end opposite Heyward-Bey and figures to be the beneficiary of Carson Palmer's proclivity for deep passes. Further helping matters is LT Jared Veldheer, who gave up only 2.0 blown-block sacks in 2011.



10. Houston Texans
With only S Danieal Manning and DE Antonio Smith over 30 years old, Houston has one of the youngest projected starting defenses in the league. Inside linebacker Brian Cushing (25) was the Texans' most valuable defender last year, but 2011 first-round pick J.J. Watt (23) was a one-man wrecking crew during his rookie season, finishing first on the team with 19 defeats (i.e., third- and fourth-down stops, tackles for negative yardage, forced fumbles and interceptions), second in quarterback hits (16) and third in hurries (21). The fact that his impact came at the typically anonymous position of 3-4 defensive end makes it all the more impressive. Watt's 2011 classmate, outside linebacker Brooks Reed (25), was a constant nuisance to opposing quarterbacks in the role of pass-rushing specialist, accumulating 20 hurrries (fourth-most on the team) despite limited snaps. Speaking of pass-rushing specialists, Houston's first-round pick was Whitney Mercilus, who will back up outside linebacker Connor Barwin for the time being. Mercilus' SackSEER projection ranked third among this year's crop of pass-rushers.



11. Denver Broncos
Signing Peyton Manning might have improved the Broncos' level of 35-and-over talent for this season, but a pair of 25-and-under emerging stars helped them reach the divisional round of the playoffs last season. Demaryius Thomas (25) is entering the all-important third season for a wide receiver, and the end of his second season bodes well. His performance against Pittsburgh in the wild-card round will be what's remembered, but he also followed that up with a six-catch, 95-yard game against New England. The key for Thomas to reach his vast potential is shaking the injury bug he's had since even before he was drafted. The other star, LB Von Miller (24), won Defensive Rookie of the Year last season thanks primarily to his 11 sacks. Not in the box score, however, is that he also had 19 quarterback hits, 17.5 quarterback hurries and ranked 13th among linebackers in run-stop rate.

Denver would rank higher on our list if it had much in the way of 25-and-under talent past these two, however. The best of the rest is WR Eric Decker (25), whose roller-coaster ride catching passes from Tim Tebow should turn into a smooth sail across calm waters with Manning taking over at quarterback.



12. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have a few different position groups that have almost unmatched young depth. In the secondary, they have a pair of young Pro Bowl safeties in Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, as well as a solid young corner in Richard Sherman. They have two very promising tackles: Russell Okung is the one who can actually block pass-rushers, but there is still time for James Carpenter to grow into that kind of player. They also have three different wide receivers who cracked FO's top-25 prospects list: Doug Baldwin, Ricardo Lockette and Kris Durham. Add DE Bruce Irvin to that and the pattern is emerging: Not only is this team developing many solid young players, they're also doing it with a focus primarily on the passing game. If Russell Wilson can become the QB some in the scouting community think he can, this is going to be a very dangerous team come the middle of the decade.



13. Indianapolis Colts
Yes, the Colts have Luck at QB now. But look beyond him and you'll see that this is shaping up to be a real nice draft for Indianapolis. The Colts added two of the best tight ends in the draft in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen, as well as an interesting (if tiny) receiver in T.Y. Hilton. Add those four onto the core that was already in place (CB Jerraud Powers, T Anthony Castonzo, LB Pat Angerer, LB Kavell Conner, DT Drake Nevis, RB Donald Brown) and there is enough young talent to conceivably find the Colts dealing with a short rebuild rather than a long one.



14. New York Giants
The Giants have a pair of certifiable young stars in ultra-athletic DE Jason Pierre-Paul and wideout Hakeem Nicks. Linval Joseph and Marvin Austin should be a formidable pair of defensive tackles, in the same recent Giants tradition that has brought us players such as Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty and Barry Cofield. Prince Amukamara will get a chance to step in at corner since Aaron Ross took off for Jacksonville. The team probably has an answer at linebacker next to Michael Boley somewhere between Greg Jones, Jacquian Williams and Mark Herzlich. The running back situation looks to be addressed by David Wilson. Despite graduating S Kenny Phillips and RB Ahmad Bradshaw, this team should be in good shape going forward.



15. San Francisco 49ers
Some teams on this list have an inordinate amount of young starters; the 49ers aren't one of those teams. However, if you were to skip over the foursome of T Anthony Davis, WR Michael Crabtree, G Mike Iupati and LB NaVorro Bowman as only "pretty good" you'd be missing the forest for the trees. DE Aldon Smith showed he could be a dynamic pass-rusher last season, Chris Culliver played early and often at nickelback and RB Kendall Hunter is going to be part of a large group of committee backs that will also include 2012 second-rounder LaMichael James. This group has a few potential stars and, perhaps most importantly, very few young starters who started purely due to injury attrition.



16. Kansas City Chiefs
If we judged the Chiefs just on last season's results, they would be much lower on the list. It looks like they have the beginnings of a good young offensive line with G Jon Asamoah and C Rodney Hudson, and Jon Baldwin should become a contributor at wideout. RB/WR Dexter McCluster is still hanging around, and our SACKSEER system loved LB Justin Houston heading into last season. That doesn't sound like much, but then you remember that RB Jamaal Charles, S Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki barely played last season, and top that off with the selection of physical freak Dontari Poe as an actual stab at fixing their long-running issues at nose tackle. Yes, the future is setting up quite nicely for the Chiefs -- as long as they can keep these players on the field rather than in the trainer's room.

Eff u lamar part 1

This post was edited by JeanR on Jul 16 2012 11:15pm