Here Noz
Each of the divisional playoff games this weekend has an interesting subplot. There is Brady vs. Tebow, Part 2, a battle to see which remaining AFC defense is the most dynamic (Houston or Baltimore), and a Saints-49ers matchup that is the epitome of an unstoppable force versus an immovable object.
As fascinating as those conflicts are, one of the more intriguing subplots within any of the games has to be this question: Which team has the better receiving corps, the New York Giants or the Green Bay Packers?
Opinions abound as to which pass-catching group is better, but for the sake of this discussion, opinions will take a back seat to a detailed metric review, with the numbers being the overriding determinant as to which player is better at each position. And note that I'm laying out who is No. 1 or No. 2 based on overall productivity, not the usual throwaway line about who is a No. 1 guy and who isn't.
No. 1 wide receiver: Victor Cruz vs. Jordy Nelson
For this first matchup, let's take a look at a chart detailing the metrics for each player:
Victor Cruz's 2011 season statistics
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 47 65 664 3 0 0 10.2
Medium (11-19 yards) 22 32 383 2 1 14 12.0
Deep (20-29 yards) 8 14 227 2 2 25 15.8
Bomb (30+ yards) 5 8 262 2 1 5 29.7
Total 82 119 1536 9 4 44 12.8
Vertical (11+ yards) 35 54 872 6 4 44 15.8
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 13 22 489 4 3 30 20.8
2nd half productivity 48 69 948 5 2 19 13.6
Jordy Nelson's 2011 season statistics
Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Pen Pen Yds YPA
Short (1-10 yards) 35 44 276 5 0 0 6.3
Medium (11-19 yards) 18 28 350 3 1 -10 11.7
Deep (20-29 yards) 8 10 301 2 2 40 28.4
Bomb (30+ yards) 7 10 336 5 0 0 33.6
Total 68 92 1263 15 3 30 13.6
Vertical (11+ yards) 33 48 987 10 3 30 19.9
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 15 20 637 7 2 40 30.8
2nd half productivity 39 54 693 10 1 -10 12.4
(Note: Second-half productivity measures the player's productivity in the last eight games of his team's season)
At first glance, Nelson would seem to be the winner here because he has the edge in total yards per attempt (YPA), vertical YPA and touchdowns.
Before giving Nelson the win, however, it has to be noted that Cruz wins in other areas.
He has a vastly superior short-pass YPA (due to his uncanny ability to turn a quick hitter into a long gain), more targets, more receptions and more total yards.
In addition, Cruz also has more yards after catch, more gains of 20 or more yards, more first downs and a higher yards-per-game average (all of these statistics can be found on each team's stats page on ESPN.com).
Most importantly, over the course of the second half of the season, Cruz turned the total YPA lead around to his advantage, which is a more apt comparison of these two because that is when Cruz started becoming fully integrated into the New York offense. It also shows he has outplayed Nelson down the stretch, and that upward trend is extremely important.
Edge: Giants
No. 2 WR: Hakeem Nicks vs. Greg Jennings
Over the course of the full season, these two were very close in total YPA (9.9 for Nicks, 10.1 for Jennings). Jennings had the higher vertical and stretch vertical YPA totals (14.0 and 20.8 for Jennings versus 11.9 and 16.1 for Nicks), but Nicks was able to close that productivity gap with a half-yard lead in short-pass YPA. Nicks also posted his YPA on a much higher target total (129 for Nicks versus 103 for Jennings).
Where their statistical lines end up differing significantly is over the course of the second half of the season. Nicks' YPA lead over that time span was significant (9.9 YPA for Nicks, 8.0 YPA for Jennings), and he posted it on a much larger target volume (67 for Nicks, 38 for Jennings).
Some of that can be attributed to Jennings being out for three games with a knee injury, but that still doesn't make up for the fact that Nicks trended upward and Jennings trended downward, regardless of injury.
Edge: Giants
No. 3 WR: Mario Manningham vs. Donald Driver
Driver isn't quite the receiver he used to be, but he was still able to post an 8.7 YPA on 55 targets this year, which is higher than Manningham's 8-yard YPA on 75 targets.
That Driver was able to do this despite Manningham having a huge lead in vertical targets (18 for Driver, 49 for Manningham) speaks to Driver's superior ability as a short-pass receiver (and the Packers' ability to get him the ball), but it also speaks to Manningham's incredible run of bad luck this year. He missed as many as five touchdowns due to overthrows, drops and the like, yet he was still able to be nearly as productive as Driver. The low vertical attempt total for Driver also illustrates that he is now pretty much a one-trick pony, which is something that Manningham definitely is not.
Edge: Push
Wild card: James Jones
A case could be made that Jones should be considered a No. 3 wide receiver in conjunction with Driver. If that were the method used for the comparison, Jones' 11.4 total YPA on 58 targets would make the Packers the hands-down winner of the No. 3 wide receiver battle.
The reason that isn't an automatic listing for Jones is that 19 of his targets occurred after Jennings was injured. That makes a case that he should be considered as a combination pick with Jennings in the No. 2 wide receiver role.
An edge could be granted to Jennings/Jones because they had a better season-long total YPA on a higher overall target volume, but Nicks had a higher second-half YPA on an almost identical number of targets to those two, so all in all pairing Jones and Jennings would still be a push with Nicks.
Edge: Either move would grant some level of an edge to the Packers, so let's make this easy and just say Green Bay has a win here.
Tight end: Jake Ballard/Bear Pascoe/Travis Beckum vs. Jermichael Finley
It might come as something of a surprise to find that the Giants trio had numbers that were quite comparable to the much more heralded Finley.
The Giants threesome actually bested Finley in season-long YPA (10.0 for the Giants trio versus 8.2 for Finley) and did so on a similar number of targets (84 for the Giants, 93 for Finley). It should be noted that those totals did flatten over the course of the second half of the season, however (7.9 YPA on 48 targets for both during that time frame).
The Giants do have an edge here overall, but since it takes three of their players to post equivalent numbers, it seems only fair to call this a draw.
Edge: Push
Add the totals all up and it equals two wins for the Giants, one win for the Packers and two push ratings. That means New York wins the battle for the title of best receiving corps in this matchup. There are many factors that will come into play, but given a quiet edge such as this, and more obvious ones such as a better overall defense than Green Bay, it's not a surprise why many believe New York has a fighting chance to pull off the upset Sunday.