The big question: Does a one-loss Michigan State or Ohio State deserve to make the playoff?
Todd McShay: At this point, I can't definitively say that a one-loss Michigan State Spartans or Ohio State Buckeyes will deserve a spot in the playoff. A lot will depend upon which teams the Spartans or Buckeyes (and there can only be one, since they face off against each other Nov. 8) will be up against when it comes time to select the playoff field. But I'm much more inclined to believe that they will be deserving of one of the four spots than I would have been just three weeks ago.
Here's the case for each, followed by the bottom line:
Michigan State: I'm more familiar with the Buckeyes' personnel and development at the moment, because I've been part of the broadcast team for Ohio State games in two of the past three weeks, but from what I've been able to see so far (and I will be covering Michigan State against Michigan Saturday -- 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC), this is a team that continues to improve.
Mark Dantonio and his staff do as good a job as any in the country at developing their players during the year and getting their team to peak at the right time. The Spartans don't have the offensive weapons the Buckeyes do, but they are more consistent on defense and have a very good starting QB in Connor Cook.
If Michigan State beats Ohio State Nov. 8 and then runs the table, the Spartans should have a better argument than the Buckeyes to make the playoff. Their only loss would be a September trip to Eugene in which they played Oregon tough for all four quarters, which is a considerably better loss than Ohio State's defeat to a pedestrian Virginia Tech team.
[+] EnlargeJ.T. Barrett
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J.T. Barrett isn't as dynamic as Braxton Miller, but he's still a threat with his legs -- and he's doing a very good job of distributing the football.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes' loss to the Hokies is really bad for their résumé, but the fact that it came early and at a time when the team was still breaking in a new QB (redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett, who had very little time to get ready to step in for the injured Braxton Miller) works in their favor. And if they run the table (and continue to play as well as they have the past few weeks), they'll be able to point toward their impressive improvement throughout the course of the season.
I think Ohio State's ceiling is very high. Barrett has gone from a liability to an asset. While there's no question that Miller is a more dynamic playmaker and has a stronger arm, I would argue that OSU has a much more complete offense with Barrett playing at his currently high level. Barrett is still plenty mobile (both within the pocket and as an open-field runner), and he is more effective reading defenses, has a quicker release, shows better anticipation and is more consistently accurate. Simply put: He's a better distributor of the football.
Additionally, I don't think many people realize what a good, young group of offensive weapons the Buckeyes have. RB Ezekiel Elliott (a powerful inside runner with enough speed to turn the corner), WR Michael Thomas, WR-RB hybrids Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall, and TEs Jeff Heuerman and Nick Vannett (who remind me of Stanford's Zach Ertz and Coby Fleener) are all future NFL players.
The Buckeyes' offensive line is jelling into a strong group, and the defense -- particularly the secondary -- has shown marked improvement in its past two outings.
Bottom line: The biggest question for these Big Ten teams is whether or not the SEC gets two teams into the playoff. If so, their odds significantly decrease, especially if Florida State runs the table. A one-loss Pac-12 team would likely have a stronger case (particularly Oregon, as it beat Michigan State in Week 2), and a one-loss Notre Dame (which I have far more respect for this week than I did prior to its loss to FSU) and a one-loss Big 12 champ would also merit consideration.
The Spartans or Buckeyes would certainly have a case, but a lot will depend upon how the other conference races play out.
Mel Kiper: Will one of these teams deserve a playoff berth if it runs the table? Absolutely.
Two weeks ago I projected Michigan State to squeak into the playoff based on the belief the Spartans could win out. Now I believe that whichever team wins the Nov. 8 matchup between Michigan State and Ohio State can get in.
Here are the cases, as I see them.
For the Spartans: They have a forgivable loss at Oregon where they really just had a couple of blown coverages to make the score appear a little lopsided, but by the end of the year it's possible every other team not named Florida State will have a forgivable loss as well. I still find it hard to believe anybody in the SEC will be able to run the table. And FSU will stay undefeated just because the Noles don't play anybody (and nearly losing at home to a good but not remotely great Notre Dame isn't much of a profile bump -- let's be honest).
So if Michigan State can win out, and get the W over Ohio State and also a Big Ten title-game win, the Spartans should be in really good shape with the committee. Remember, they haven't fallen far in the rankings (at No. 8 currently), so it's pretty easy to imagine a situation in which the committee would have to deny a top-four team in the human polls if MSU wins out, and that could be tough to do.
For the Buckeyes: They can also squeak into the playoff based on the fact that (A) they have a chance to win a huge road game at Michigan State, plus the Big Ten title game, which would be a huge boost to their overall profile, and (B) you can make up for a lighter schedule by completely dominating the opposition in every facet of the game, and right now that's what Ohio State is doing.
Virginia Tech was the perfect opponent to upset the Buckeyes when it did -- a good pass rush goes after a young O-line that hadn't come together yet and a QB making only his second start -- but with Barrett now hitting his stride as a passer, this offense looks really potent. Barrett has thrown 17 TDs and just one INT in his past four games. And on the defensive side of the ball, Ohio State is loaded with NFL talent across the defensive line, and its young linebackers are starting to play well.
Again, the Buckeyes have to win at Michigan State, then survive a quietly tough turnaround in Minnesota, but do that and they have a chance. If Ohio State continues to manhandle teams, I think the committee could consider the timing of the Virgina Tech loss and realize this is a different Buckeyes team.
Again, one of these cases blows up on Nov. 8, but whichever team wins that game will get a huge profile bump and has a chance to finish the year with one loss and a pretty good case for forgiveness for how and why it happened.
Prospect on the rise
Kiper: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville Cardinals
[+] EnlargeDeVante Parker
Rob Foldy/USA TODAY Sports
Catch radius? Check.
Until Saturday, Parker hadn't played a snap all season after breaking a bone in his foot in August. And during that time, I left him on my Big Board. Saturday was a reminder why. In what was essentially his season debut he had nine catches for 132 yards as Louisville beat North Carolina State. Parker has good length at 6-foot-3, and is wiry but chiseled and strong at 211 pounds, and his frame is pretty close to that of A.J. Green. The length is supplemented by his really long arms, and when you add in his good leaping ability you have a player with a tremendous catch radius.
Parker has good bloodlines -- his dad was a RB at Louisville -- and is an extremely hard worker going back to high school, where coaches raved about how he prepared like a pro. He'll be one next year, and there's a good chance it comes by way of Round 1.
McShay: I channeled my inner Kiper and came up with two picks for this one:
David Cobb, RB, Minnesota Golden Gophers: Cobb is a tough, highly competitive runner who rushed for 194 yards on 35 carries in the Gophers' 39-28 win over Purdue Saturday. I was really impressed with what I saw from him on TV, and am looking forward to studying his tape.
Sterling Shepard, WR, Oklahoma Sooners: Every defense the Sooners face knows Sterling is their go-to guy, yet nobody seems to be able to stop him. That was true in OU's close loss to Kansas State on Saturday, as he caught 15 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown. He has really good ball skills, with strong focus and good body control when attacking the ball in the air. He's really tough for a smaller receiver, playing through injuries and showing no fear going over the middle.
Almost famous
McShay: Terrell Pinson, OLB/SS, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Pinson originally signed with West Virginia but was prevented from enrolling due to an algebra grade, and then went to junior college before landing at Louisiana Tech. He has emerged as a big-time playmaker this year, including this three-series stretch in the second half of the Bulldogs' win over UTSA:
• Fumble recovery for a touchdown
• Interception
• Interception
He also had two pass breakups. He's on my short list of off-the-radar guys to study after the season.
Kiper: Sean Donnelly, OT, Tulane Green Wave
I stayed up late to go back through the Tulane game and watched Donnelly. What I saw was a future pro, possibly an early Day 3 selection. Donnelly has tremendous length, standing 6-8, and he's pretty athletic. He has quick feet, does a good job with hand placement and he really stands out for me in the run game, where he gets a great push and will get out in space and line people up. Donnelly has a lot of experience, and has played left tackle as well, having started there in 2012. He's currently at right tackle and likely will stay there when he lands on an NFL roster.
A question for next week
Kiper: Which stars will shine the brightest in a big-time prospect showdown next week?
No, I'm not talking about anything happening in the SEC; I'm talking about Arizona State battling Washington. I know it's not a one-on-one game, so the idea of "matchups" can oversell things, but ASU wide receiver Jaelen Strong could see a lot of Washington CB Marcus Peters in a battle of two potential top-20 picks.
Arizona State's Christian Westerman is one of the top guards in the country, and he'll battle Danny Shelton, one of the nation's top D-linemen, a clogger who can push the pocket. Finally, ASU tackle Jamil Douglas will see a lot of Hau'oli Kikaha, who leads the nation in sacks for the Huskies. It's a fun prospect game.
McShay: Can Ole Miss handle a tough road test at LSU?
Saturday's matchup between the Tigers and Rebels (7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN) will be a challenging one for the Rebels. A night game in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, is always a hellacious road venue, and there is added national attention with "College GameDay" coming to town. I'm interested to see how Hugh Freeze's team responds, and also get a look at several players.
Safety Cody Prewitt is having a big year as the leader of a defense that is loaded with young talent. On offense, sophomore WR Laquon Treadwell and sophomore LT Laremy Tunsil are two of the best players in the country, and even though neither is eligible for the 2015 draft, NFL scouts are keeping close tabs on both of them. LSU has a lot of young talent as well.