Quote (bena2005 @ Feb 24 2013 03:24pm)
Didn't see your first one until today, figured it's useless now that deadline has passed. If you still want it, lmk. And for future reference, I only check this when I see it on the first page, so if I don't post it within a few hours, just shoot me a PM.
Editor's note: This file was originally published on Feb. 15 and was updated on Feb. 22.
With the trade deadline behind us, NBA front offices now turn their attention to this summer's draft and free agency. Really, they've been considering this year's free agents all along. One reason teams like Atlanta and Utah opted to stand pat at the deadline was to avoid cutting into their precious cap space for this summer. So let's take a look at the players likely to be available in free agency.
I've ranked the impact free agents at each position (at least five) with the help of three-year projections from my SCHOENE projection system. These projections show how much value in terms of wins above replacement (WARP) similar players at the same age averaged over the following three seasons, giving a baseline for what we can expect from each free agent going forward. Adding factors not captured by individual statistics, here's how I'd choose among the 2013 free agents.
POINT GUARD
1. Chris Paul, L.A. Clippers: 41.7 WARP
Despite concerns about the future of his right knee, which returned to the surface when he missed an extended period with a bruised kneecap, Paul is easily the most valuable free agent on the market.
Jennings
2. Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee Bucks (restricted): 32.5 WARP
Multiyear WARP projections tend to be favorable to young point guards, who have historically continued developing later than peers at other positions. That's good news for Jennings, who will hit the market at the tender age of 23. Jennings' advanced numbers aren't dissimilar from those of first-time All-Star Jrue Holiday of the Philadelphia 76ers, and his best strength -- avoiding turnovers -- tends to be overlooked in the discussion of his poor shooting percentages. The question is whether Jennings can land a max offer from another team. The Dallas Mavericks are his best bet, with the Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz as the best of the long shots.
3. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks (restricted): 17.4 WARP
The long-anticipated Teague breakout still hasn't quite materialized. Nonetheless, he's an established starting point guard under the age of 25 and a key part of the Hawks' future. Atlanta can use its cap space on other players before re-signing Teague, who has a relatively small cap hold.
4. Jose Calderon, Detroit Pistons: 17.1 WARP
Calderon has played his best basketball in years during the final season of his contract, setting himself up for a nice windfall. Offensively, his combination of accurate shooting and playmaking puts him up with the NBA's elite point guards. Defensive issues knock him down several tiers.
Complete Free Agent List
Which contracts are expiring in the next two years? See each team's free-agent situation. 2013 and 2014 list
5. Jarrett Jack, Golden State Warriors: 9.2 WARP
A longtime starter, Jack has proved one of the NBA's best backup point guards in Golden State. He can play on or off the ball because of his shooting ability and is a physical defender against bigger opponents. One slight concern is that he'll be 30 by next season and his WARP projection drops quickly, so a long-term contract might be a bad idea.
6. Nate Robinson, Chicago Bulls: 20.5 WARP
No Washington Husky bonus here, honest. Robinson has been one of the league's best bargains this season, providing a surprisingly credible Derrick Rose imitation (his true shooting percentage is superior, though Robinson plays a much smaller role in the Chicago offense) to help the Bulls replace the MVP. Robinson isn't as valuable as his WARP projection because of his defense and erratic decision-making, but he has earned a much bigger offer than another one-year deal for the veteran's minimum.
7. Darren Collison, Dallas Mavericks (restricted): 12.9 WARP
Collison is too accomplished to be strictly a backup point guard, but not good enough as a starter to keep his teams from trying to upgrade the position. That puts him in a weird spot in free agency. Ideally, he would play behind a bigger starter who can slide to shooting guard at times.
Others: Jerryd Bayless (PO), D.J. Augustin, Devin Harris, Mo Williams, Rodrigue Beaubois (R), C.J. Watson (PO)
SHOOTING GUARD
Ginobili
1. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs: 10.0 WARP
Despite nagging injuries, Ginobili is as effective as nearly any shooting guard in the NBA when he's on the court. He remains highly versatile, running the San Antonio offense much of the time while rebounding like a small forward. Ginobili's advancing age -- he'll be 36 in July -- is the biggest strike against him in free agency. San Antonio will surely re-sign him to what might be his last NBA contract.
2. O.J. Mayo, Dallas Mavericks (player option): 14.8 WARP
3. J.J. Redick, Orlando Magic: 11.1 WARP
Mayo and Redick might be the most similar pair of free agents on the market. Both are excellent shooters who can also create their own offense out of the pick-and-roll, and their WARP totals this season are nearly identical. Mayo has more upside because he's three years younger, giving him the slight edge.
As for Redick, the Bucks didn't give up promising forward Tobias Harris just to rent him for the remainder of the season. Milwaukee will surely look to use Redick's Bird rights to re-sign him to a new long-term contract, but there will be plenty of other suitors for his services.
4. Tyreke Evans, Sacramento Kings (restricted): 16.7 WARP
Quietly, Evans has shown growth this season. He's making a career-best 50.1 percent of his 2-point attempts and has matched the level of play he reached during his rookie of the year campaign. To get beyond that point, Evans will have to improve his outside marksmanship, especially now that he has settled in at shooting guard. He's making 32.7 percent of his 3s, a career high, but has attempted only 55.
Evans reportedly drew interest from teams, most notably the Boston Celtics, but the Kings opted to hang on to him and postpone a decision on his future until this summer -- by which point they might be in Seattle.
NBA Trade Machine
Put on your GM hat and make your own trades and deals.
Trade Machine
5. Kevin Martin, Oklahoma City Thunder: 11.3 WARP
His trade to Oklahoma City has highlighted what statistical analysts have known for years -- Martin is one of the league's most efficient scorers. Unfortunately, he's a defensive liability who gives up much of that value at the other end, limiting him to a reserve role for most teams.
6. Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks (player option): 13.5 WARP
The addition of Redick, who will cut into Ellis' playing time, makes it all the more likely that he will opt out of the $11 million he's scheduled to make in the final year of his contract. If the Bucks can re-sign Redick, Ellis will surely be looking for a new home on a multi-year contract. While Ellis criticism focuses on his volume scoring, the bigger problem is that he's too small to defend many shooting guards, creating matchup problems.
7. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks: 12.0 WARP
Now that Smith's All-Star campaign is over, we can take note of his poor shooting percentages -- 43.2 percent on 2s and 33.3 percent from beyond the arc. Smith has been much better in the past, however, and is worth at least the midlevel exception for his bench scoring punch.
8. Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies: 2.9 WARP
The league's best stopper is massively underrated by his poor projection. If Allen slips a little defensively now that he's in his 30s, however, teams might not be able to overlook his weak offense to play him extended minutes. So his new contract shouldn't go beyond three years.
Others: Gerald Henderson (R), Gary Neal (R), Brandon Rush (PO), Nick Young
SMALL FORWARD
Iguodala
1. Andre Iguodala, Denver Nuggets (early termination option): 12.3 WARP
Whether you call him a shooting guard or a small forward, Iguodala is the best wing potentially on the market because of his combination of playmaking and elite defense. $16.2 million would be a lot to give up if Iguodala opts out, so he might return to the Nuggets before testing free agency in the summer of 2014.
2. Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota Timberwolves (player option): 7.3 WARP
Don't worry too much about that low WARP projection. Kirilenko has shown little sign of aging this season in Minnesota, putting up numbers consistent with his years as a starter in Utah. He remains one of the league's most well-rounded contributors and probably has at least another season or two at this level.
3. Chase Budinger, Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted): 14.4 WARP
Budinger, who underwent knee surgery in November, would love to get back on the court and prove to teams he's healthy before seeking his first big payday as a restricted free agent. His combination of athleticism and age puts Budinger at the top of a group of about a half-dozen shooting specialists who will be available.
4. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks: 5.7 WARP
The best pure shooter of the group, certainly, is Korver. He's hitting free agency at the right time after a great season.
5. Martell Webster, Washington Wizards: 7.7 WARP
Healthy after years of dealing with back problems, Webster has established himself as a starter in Washington. Webster has set up shop in the corners, ranking fourth in the NBA in corner 3s, per NBA.com/Stats, and making them at a 51.6 percent clip. He's also a solid defender who is still just 26.
6. Matt Barnes, L.A. Clippers: 7.6 WARP
Barnes might be in for the biggest payday of his NBA career after years of playing for the minimum. By adding more frequent outside shooting to his energetic play on both ends, Barnes has been as valuable as any member of the Clippers' "Tribe Called Bench." The 3-pointers may not last, but the rest of Barnes' contributions should.
Others: Corey Brewer, Dorell Wright, Mike Dunleavy, Earl Clark, James Johnson (R), Al-Farouq Aminu
POWER FORWARD
Smith
1. Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks: 22.2 WARP
After Paul and Dwight Howard, Smith deserves to be considered the third-best unrestricted free agent on the market. As frustrating as Smith can be, he shines by both individual and plus-minus metrics. He merits a four-year deal starting around $15 million. After the Hawks chose not to trade Smith before the deadline, he'll be looking for such a contract from a team under the cap. Both Houston and Milwaukee will have the room to make Smith a lavish offer this summer.
2. Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz: 17.5 WARP
Since replacing Carlos Boozer in the Utah starting five, Millsap has been one of the NBA's most reliable big men. While Millsap's per-game stats don't leap off the page, he's solid across the board and would be an upgrade for many teams at power forward.
3. David West, Indiana Pacers: 6.7 WARP
He's Millsap, only four years older. That limits West's long-term WARP projection. For next season, he can help take a team to the next level with his pick-and-pop game and heady defense -- just as he has done in Indiana.
4. Carl Landry, Golden State Warriors (player option): 3.1 WARP
Landry has nearly already matched that WARP projection this season alone (2.2). He has also shown improvement on defense, allowing him and David Lee to play together in an undersized yet effective frontcourt. That should earn Landry a slight raise on his $4 million player option for next season.
5. J.J. Hickson, Portland Trail Blazers: 11.1 WARP
Because he's such a poor help defender, Hickson is better suited to come off the bench than to start and play 29 minutes a night as he has this season. Still, plenty of teams could use a nightly double-double threat and elite finisher -- even if they weren't willing to give up a draft pick to rent him for the last two months of this season.
Others: Brandan Wright, Andray Blatche, Boris Diaw (PO), Marreese Speights (PO), Byron Mullens (R)
CENTER
Howard
1. Dwight Howard, L.A. Lakers: 35.7 WARP
When we looked ahead to what was then the free-agent class of 2012 two years ago, Howard ranked ahead of Paul. An injury-hampered season in L.A. has knocked him down to No. 2. Of course, Howard is still an obvious max player no matter the concerns about his back, shoulder and inconsistent effort level. While the Lakers have reemphasized that Howard is their future, the Hawks and Rockets have both positioned themselves to strike if he decides he doesn't want to play in L.A.
2. Andrew Bynum, Philadelphia 76ers: 26.4 WARP
One factor the WARP projections can't take into account is durability. If Bynum were healthy, he'd be a clear No. 3 behind Paul and Howard. As it is, someone will surely spend max money on him. That's a risk as big as Bynum's 7-foot, 285-pound frame.
3. Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted): 9.3 WARP
With Kevin Love sidelined much of the season, Minnesota's other burly big man has shouldered a heavier load, boosting his per-game averages heading into free agency. Pekovic has a nice touch around the basket, is a major threat on the offensive glass (he led the league in offensive rebound percentage last season) and has developed into a solid defender. If Howard and Bynum re-sign, Pekovic could be attractive to teams like Portland and Atlanta looking for a center.
4. Al Jefferson, Utah Jazz: 15.9 WARP
While not the defensive anchor most teams want in their center, Jefferson is one of the league's most polished low-post scorers. Because he entered the NBA directly out of high school, Jefferson has been in the league nine years and is just 28, meaning a four-year deal shouldn't be a worry for teams. After hanging on to both him and Millsap at the trade deadline, the Jazz will probably decide this summer who will serve as the veteran anchor of a frontcourt rotation that will also include youngsters Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter. The numbers favor Millsap as the more valuable Utah big man going forward.
5. Tiago Splitter, San Antonio Spurs (restricted): 11.5 WARP
Playing behind Tim Duncan has made it hard to notice, but Tiago Splitter has emerged as the well-rounded contributor his EuroLeague stardom suggested. Splitter is spending more time with Duncan in big lineups this season and has made nearly 60 percent of his shot attempts.
6. Elton Brand, Dallas Mavericks: 1.8 WARP
At this stage in his career, Brand should probably be working season to season or on a two-year deal at most. In that short term, he can help a team even though his offense has slipped badly. Brand is one of the league's more underrated defenders and plays much bigger than his 6-9 height in the paint.
7. Samuel Dalembert, Milwaukee Bucks: 2.2 WARP
Dalembert's WARP projection understates his ability because it compares him to one-dimensional shot-blockers who lack his skill and athleticism. In a limited role in Milwaukee behind Larry Sanders, Dalembert already has 2.0 WARP this season.
8. DeJuan Blair, San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted): 5.9 WARP
Speaking of undersized big men, Blair can put up points and rebounds in a hurry. If he escapes a crowded frontcourt in San Antonio, look for Blair to make a bigger impact, as he did during his first two seasons in the NBA. Blair will have to rely on his performance as a starter in 2011-12 as his resume since he seems unlikely to see much action the rest of the season after the Spurs were unable to move him before the deadline.
Others: Chris Kaman, Zaza Pachulia, Jason Maxiell