Quote (Pinecones @ Feb 3 2013 05:40am)
Two weeks have passed since we released our first Big Board of the season.
The top of the draft remains, as a whole, a bit underwhelming. While a number of prospects project to be impact players at the next level, no one here looks like a potential franchise player at the moment. What this draft does have, however, is depth. You might not want to have a top-three pick, but the Nos. 8 to 20 range in this draft has promise.
There is still plenty of time for these prospects to make major leaps up (or down) the board, but what's more interesting to keep an eye on is the direction certain prospects are trending.
So, how are we ranking the top 30 prospects of the 2013 draft right now? Here is our second Big Board of the season.
1Nerlens NoelSCHOOL: KentuckyCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-11, 215POS: C
10.2 ppg9.3 rpg4.7 bpg
Noel is still a placeholder here for the top pick. Noel isn't close to wrapping up the top spot and will probably land only here if a team with a need for shot-blocking in the middle, like the Cavaliers, for example, lands the No. 1 pick. Noel is still trying to shrug off the perception that his freshman season is a disappointment. I think he's been exactly who he was advertised to be -- a super-athletic defender with a very raw offensive game. He has played four times since the last Big Board update and totaled more blocks (32) and rebounds (37) than points (30). While his offense is still a work in progress, he continues to get better and better on the defensive end of the floor.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 1 | PLAYER CARD
2Ben McLemoreSCHOOL: KansasCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-5, 195POS: SG
16.1 ppg5.4 rpg45 3p%
McLemore continues his meteoric rise up our Big Board and, if he can keep it up all season, might be the one guy who could end up being a consensus No. 1 pick by June. His numbers the past few games haven't been particularly dynamic, but he's doing the little things it takes to move Kansas all the way up to No. 2 in the rankings. A number of general managers now have him atop their draft boards, and I think that number could continue to grow as the season progresses. Adding "winner" to his final NBA résumé could be what pushes him over the top, especially when you consider that Noel, Shabazz Muhammad and Alex Len all play for teams that have been up and down this season.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 3 | PLAYER CARD
3Shabazz MuhammadSCHOOL: UCLACLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-6, 225POS: SF
18.2 ppg4.8 rpg44 3p%
Muhammad continues to rebound from a shaky start. In the four games since our last update, he averaged 18 points per game and shot better than 50 percent from the field. But there's a growing feeling among scouts that Muhammad might have leveled off a bit. His motor and killer instincts are apparent, and most scouts believe he could be a 20-points-per-game scorer at the next level. But does Muhammad have the ability to go from very good to superstar? Most scouts are still waiting to be convinced.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 2 | PLAYER CARD
4Alex LenSCHOOL: MarylandCLASS: So.HT/WT: 7-1, 225POS: C
13.2 ppg8.3 rpg1.9 bpg
Len has the talent to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. His biggest challenge right now is a collection of guards who aren't helpful in getting him the ball. In the past four games since our last update, Len had just eight field goal attempts against North Carolina State, just seven against North Carolina and six against Duke. It's hard to put up big numbers if you don't get the ball. Len's ridiculous reverse baseline dunk against Mason Plumlee and Duke showed off the incredible potential he has. The question is whether NBA scouts will get to see it enough to justify taking him No. 1.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 4 | PLAYER CARD
5Anthony BennettSCHOOL: UNLVCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-8, 240POS: PF
18.1 ppg8.6 rpg38 3p%
Bennett had an unusually quiet couple of weeks. He had nine points against both San Diego State and Colorado State before dropping 17 against Wyoming and 13 against Nevada. Those two nine-point outings were the only two games this season in which Bennett failed to score in double-digits. Teams have adjusted their scouting reports on Bennett and are constantly double-teaming him and getting physical with him in the paint. To justify his staying this high on the draft board, Bennett is going to have to show scouts he can respond to being the focal point of a Mountain West team's defense.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 5 | PLAYER CARD
6Otto PorterSCHOOL: G'townCLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-8, 200POS: SF
14.7 ppg1.8 spg1.2 bpg
Porter continues to grow as both a player and as the go-to guy for Georgetown. With second-leading scorer Greg Whittington out for academic reasons, Porter has taken on an increased offensive load. Over the past five games without Whittington, Porter is averaging 19 points and 9.8 rebounds per game while shooting 52 percent from 3-point range and 59 percent from the field. More importantly, Georgetown has a couple of big wins over ranked opponents in Notre Dame and Louisville. The two biggest concerns scouts had about Porter coming into the season were his jump shot and his ability to be a go-to player. He's done a great job of answering both question marks the past two weeks.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6 | PLAYER CARD
7Cody ZellerSCHOOL: IndianaCLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-11, 210POS: C
16.0 ppg8.1 rpg60 fg%
Zeller is coming off the worst two games of the season -- a 2-point stinker against Penn State in which he didn't score a field goal, and a 2-for-7 outing against Michigan State. No one is going to judge Zeller based on two games, but his struggles against the big, physical front of the Spartans continues to fuel doubts among NBA scouts about how his game will translate.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 6 | PLAYER CARD
8Michael Carter-WilliamsSCHOOL: SyracuseCLASS: So.HT/WT: 6-5, 175POS: PG
12.6 ppg8.9 apg37 fg%
Carter-Williams remains holding on, perilously, to the top spot in our point guard rankings despite recent uneven play. He shot just 4-for-13 against Louisville and had eight turnovers in the game but also came up with a couple of huge steals at the end of the game and one terrific dunk that put Syracuse in the win column. He shot the ball better against Cincinnati before going just 4-for-17 from the field against Villanova. With his assist totals dropping, his turnovers rising and his jump shot struggling to fall in conference play, the Carter-Williams bandwagon is slowing down, but he remains a very intriguing draft prospect.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 8 | PLAYER CARD
9Marcus SmartSCHOOL: OK St.CLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-4, 225POS: PG
13.2 ppg4.5 apg40 fg%
Smart gets this high on the Big Board based more on what he could be someday than what he is right now. His three-point, five-assist performance against Texas Tech didn't scream top-10 pick last Saturday. But his 12-point, 10-rebound, seven-assist game against Baylor showed off the best of Smart as a tough, steady playmaker who puts winning ahead of great stats. Whichever team drafts him will have to be patient, but Smart has the potential, both physically and mentally, to one day be the best player on this board.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 9 | PLAYER CARD
10Alex PoythressSCHOOL: KentuckyCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-7, 215POS: SF
13.2 ppg6.7 rpg63 fg%
Poythress continues to ooze potential but also still plays like a tease. His 20-point, 12-rebound performance against LSU was one of his best of the season. He got to the line 10 times and used his athleticism and strength to dominate. But his 6-point game against Alabama (during which he struggled with foul trouble most of the game and attempted a total of three shots) and 12-point, 7-rebound game against Auburn suggest he's still a long ways away from being the consistent scoring threat the Wildcats desperately need.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 10 | PLAYER CARD
11Archie GoodwinSCHOOL: KentuckyCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 6-5, 195POS: SG
15.1 ppg5.1 rpg3.3 apg
Goodwin can be an amazing finisher at the basket, but when he gets to the line, he falls apart. Over the past six games, Goodwin is just 32-for-50, or 64 percent. Combine that with a horrific 1-for-17 from 3-point range in his past seven games, and he's not doing a very good job of persuading NBA scouts that he can shoot the ball.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 11 | PLAYER CARD
12Mason PlumleeSCHOOL: DukeCLASS: Sr.HT/WT: 6-10, 230POS: PF
17.4 ppg11.2 rpg1.6 bpg
Plumlee has come down to earth as the Blue Devils have hit conference play. A 3-for-9 performance against Clemson, a 7-for-20 night against Georgia Tech and a 5-for-15 game against Miami have dinged his shooting percentages. But his last game, a terrific 19-point (on 9-for-12 shooting) effort against Maryland and Len, Plumlee again proved his terrific athletic ability for his size will find him a spot in an NBA rotation someday. However, scouts have tempered their expectations that Plumlee will be much more than an athletic big man who runs the floor, rebounds and adds size in the paint. In this draft, that's enough to get you drafted in the lottery.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 12 | PLAYER CARD
13Isaiah AustinSCHOOL: BaylorCLASS: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 215POS: PF
14.5 ppg8.8 rpg38 3p%
Austin continues to inspire debate among scouts concerning how his game will translate at the NBA level. Is he a 5? A 4? A 3? More importantly, who does he defend at the next level? A few scouts still have him as a top-10 pick, but many more have him somewhere in the next tier between Nos. 11 and 15.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 13 | PLAYER CARD
14C.J. McCollumSCHOOL: LehighCLASS: Sr.HT/WT: 6-3, 190POS: SG
23.9 ppg2.9 apg52 3p%
There's nothing new to report here, so I'll just repeat what I wrote two weeks ago: "McCollum may have been the best scorer in college basketball before a foot injury knocked him out last week. There's a good chance that he has played his last college game. How will it affect his stock? Most of the scouts I spoke with aren't worried. They've seen him play enough, and as long as he's going to be willing and able to do NBA team workouts, his draft stock shouldn't take a major hit."
PREVIOUS RANKING: 14 | PLAYER CARD
15Rudy GobertCOUNTRY: FranceAGE: 20HT/WT: 7-1, 220POS: PF
8.3 ppg4.6 rpg1.9 bpg
Gobert is starting to play a bigger role on his team of late. He had 16 points and 6 boards in 20 minutes against Le Havre on Jan. 21, and followed with 9 points and 9 rebounds against Limoges on the 26th.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 15 | PLAYER CARD
16Trey BurkeSCHOOL: MichiganClass: So.HT/WT: 6-1, 175POS: PG
17.9 ppg3.74 A/TO
Burke continues to wow us with his steadiness, as 29.4 percent of all of his possessions end in an assist, compared to just 8 percent of his possessions ending in a turnover. NBA teams love point guards who are proven winners and leaders, and Burke has proven to be the heart and soul of the No. 1 team in the country this season. He doesn't have the raw abilities of Smart or the flash of Carter-Williams, but he's also more ready to step in and take over a team from day one.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 17 | PLAYER CARD
17Victor OladipoSCHOOL: IndianaClass: Jr.HT/WT: 6-5, 214POS: SG
13.9 ppg2.5 spg55 3p%
Oladipo's rise this season has been extraordinary. Last season, NBA scouts saw him as a fringe second-round prospect. This season, a number are now convinced he'll be in the lottery. Given his trajectory and that of his teammate Zeller, it's not inconceivable that Oladipo goes ahead of Zeller on draft night. His PER now ranks him 12th among all players in the NCAA (Zeller is ninth). Sunday's game against Michigan State (21 points, 7 rebounds, 6 steals, 3 blocks on 8-for-12 shooting) was arguably the best of his career. If he can keep the momentum going, he's got a great shot at the lottery. NBA teams love guards with elite athleticism, high motors, versatile defensive skills and respectable outside jumpers.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 26 | PLAYER CARD
18Glenn Robinson IIISCHOOL: MichiganClass: Fr.HT/WT: 6-6, 210POS: SF
12.1 ppg6.0 rpg40 3p%
Robinson is still scratching the surface as a basketball player. But his elite athletic ability (YouTube his 360 dunk versus Minnesota last week), rebounding ability and improved shooting touch all have scouts drooling. If teams are looking for a player who could be a home run down the road, Robinson could easily end up in the lottery. He's not ready yet, but all the pieces are there.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 25 | PLAYER CARD
19Jamaal FranklinSCHOOL: San Diego St.Class: Jr.HT/WT: 6-5, 195POS: SG
17.4 ppg9.4 rpg3.4 apg
Franklin is an elite athlete, a terrific rebounder and a defensive troublemaker ... but his jump shot continues to betray him. He went for 3-for-14 against Wyoming in a loss, 5-for-14 against Nevada and 4-for-15 against New Mexico the past three games. Factor in his 5-for-22 shooting from 3-point range, and you can understand why NBA scouts gag a little bit when he's referred to as a shooting guard.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 18 | PLAYER CARD
20Dario SaricCOUNTRY: CroatiaAGE: 18HT/WT: 6-10, 223POS: SF
7.9 ppg4.6 rpg1.9 apg
Saric continues to be living mostly on reputation at the moment. In his past two games, he has scored a combined 14 points while shooting 33 percent from the field and going 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. Scouts have given him a lot of space as he adjusts to a new team and a new role, but they are starting to run out of patience.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 16 | PLAYER CARD
21Tony MitchellSCHOOL: North TexasClass: So.HT/WT: 6-8, 220POS: SF
14.1 ppg8.4 rpg2.8 bpg
Mitchell had one of his best games of the season last Saturday against Florida Atlantic (24 points, 8 rebounds) before dropping in two more uninspired showings -- a 10-point, 7-turnover performance in a loss against Middle Tennessee followed by a 3-for-9 shooting night against Arkansas-Little Rock. Scouts aren't sure what to do with him at this point. Everyone believes he has NBA talent, but there are legitimate questions about how much he really wants to do anything with it.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 19 | PLAYER CARD
22James Michael McAdooSCHOOL: UNCClass: So.HT/WT: 6-9, 223POS: PF
14.6 ppg8.4 rpg1.4 spg
McAdoo continues to get by primarily on his athletic ability. His 19-point, 11-rebound game against Maryland was marred, once again, by his maddening tendency to turn the ball over. His PER of 17.64 for the season is very low for a big man this high on our Big Board.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 20 | PLAYER CARD
23Willie Cauley-SteinSCHOOL: KentuckyClass: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 220POS: C
7.6 ppg5.8 rpg1.9 bpg
Cauley-Stein hasn't played in four games thanks to a knee injury but is getting close to returning. How did he move up the board without playing a game? He's actually still a little on the low side right now. A number of NBA guys insist that when teams get to workouts, Cauley-Stein could be a lottery pick if he declares. Others say if he waits a year, he'll be a top-five lock.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 24 | PLAYER CARD
24B.J. YoungSCHOOL: ArkansasClass: So.HT/WT: 6-3, 170POS: PG
16.4 ppg4.1 apg21 3p%
There was a time when Young looked like the favorite to be the first point guard taken. He's been solid as a sophomore, but his shooting woes (0-for-9 from 3 and 13-for-39 from the field) in his past three games, combined with low assist totals, have NBA scouts wary that he's a high-volume, low-efficiency scorer -- and not a point guard.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 21 | PLAYER CARD
25Jeff WitheySCHOOL: KansasClass: Sr.HT/WT: 7-0, 235POS: C
13.1 ppg8.3 rpg4.3 bpg
Withey's slide down two spots doesn't have anything to do with his play. Oladipo and Robinson's moves up the board pushed him down. While scouts aren't convinced Withey has major NBA upside, his rebounding and shot-blocking ability should make him a rotation big man in the league for years.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 23 | PLAYER CARD
26Steven AdamsSCHOOL: PittsburghClass: Fr.HT/WT: 7-0, 240POS: C
6.8 ppg6.3 rpg2.0 bpg
Adams continues to be a major work in progress on the offensive end. But his rebounding ability alone could put him in the first-round discussion. He's likely to stay at least one more season at Pittsburgh.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 22 | PLAYER CARD
27Myck KabongoSCHOOL: TexasClass: So.HT/WT: 6-1, 170POS: PG
N/A
We're still waiting for Kabongo to finish his NCAA suspension. He's eligible on Feb. 13 against Iowa State. The biggest question for the Longhorns is whether that's enough time to convince the selection committee that Texas belongs in the NCAA tournament.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 27 | PLAYER CARD
28C.J. LeslieSCHOOL: N.C. StateClass: Jr.HT/WT: 6-8, 206POS: PF
15.6 ppg7.3 rpg56 fg%
Leslie remains a player plagued by the dreaded "upside" tag. As a freshman and sophomore, it usually helps more than it hurts. As a junior, the questions start pouring in. His 17-point, 10-rebound performance against North Carolina on Saturday and 20-point, 14-rebound game against Virginia showed us, once again, what he's capable of. But he needs to do it every night.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 28 | PLAYER CARD
29Lorenzo BrownSCHOOL: N.C. StateClass: Jr.HT/WT: 6-5, 185POS: PG
12.7 ppg6.9 apg2.1 spg
Brown has been just as up-and-down as Leslie this season. When he's good, such as his 20-point, 11-assist performance against North Carolina, he can be really good. But when he's struggling (see the Clemson game), he still looks like he has a ways to go.
PREVIOUS RANKING: 29 | PLAYER CARD
30Kelly OlynykSCHOOL: GonzagaClass: Jr.HT/WT: 7-0, 238POS: C
18.2 ppg7.0 rpg66 fg%
Olynyk is all over NBA draft boards at the moment. A small handful of teams have him in the mid-first round. A number of others have him firmly in the second. I've split the difference here. His 26-point, 9-rebound, 5-assist game against BYU with 9-for-9 shooting from the field got the attention of a lot of scouts. His 36.46 PER ranks second in the NCAA right now.
PREVIOUS RANKING: NR | PLAYER CARD
Next five in: Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville; Gary Harris, SG, Michigan State; Le'Bryan Nash, F, Oklahoma State; Rasheed Sulaimon, SG, Duke; C.J. Wilcox, SG, Washington