In the spirit of International Myth-Shattering Week here in sports, let's look at another myth which might have flown just a tad below the intrigue threshold of some other storylines. Since Oprah was double-booked, consider it a public service.

Myth: The 49ers and head coach Jim Harbaugh made the move to start Colin Kaepernick over Alex Smith purely based on the merits of performance. They knew Kaepernick was the future and could do things Smith wasn't capable of, and they made a gutsy move because, as I wrote at the time, Harbaugh had earned the right to go with his gut.

Reality: A lot of it was about money.

The move to start Kaepernick now looks like a typical master-stroke from Harbaugh, but at the time, it was a perfect situation of a personnel move dictated by a trio of factors:

1. Smith was coming off a concussion, so it was easy to justify as a move sensitive to a hot-button medical debate in the NFL.

2. The 49ers at the time were 6-2-1, and had a little first-place cushion to test-drive CK for a week.

3. If the 49ers could learn whether CK was truly the starter-of-the-future, it could save them a bunch of cash. As I also noted at the time, if Smith was on the Niners' roster in 2013, he'd be there at a cap hit of $10 million.

For 2013 and 2014 combined, Kaepernick represents a cap hit of a $2.8 million. The reality is the 49ers didn't just start Kaepernick for what we now know is the potential to be the latest team with a frightening dual-threat QB. It was also because if he was even 80 cents on the dollar of the performance they could have gotten from Smith, they'd still be a really good football team with the knowledge that their young starter would almost surely get better, and also one more flexible to help itself elsewhere. Now, they have a great young starter who represents a two-year cost of what Mark Sanchez will make in about four weeks next season.

It also means Smith could be cut, but more likely, will be pushed in a trade. And it's actually a good time to trade him.

We can call Alex Smith just another Jim Harbaugh creation, but he might be a valuable one, because at the time he was benched he was playing the best football of his life. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 104.8 which, had it been sustained, would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Passer rating doesn't paint nearly a complete picture (ask the new breed of read-zone utilized by QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III), but Smith's 2012 QBR ranked seventh and is the best of his career by a mile. He was making better decisions than he ever has, throwing TD passes at a higher rate than he ever has, and driving the ball down the field more often and successfully than he ever has. He helped guide the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season (exactly where CK has them this season) and was mere bad fumble luck from starting a Super Bowl.

The 49ers didn't just try out CK because of all the things noted above, they also did it because they knew the guy who could step back in was playing well enough to take them far himself.

It should create interest in a number of teams. Here's how I'd rank them in terms of how much they should consider Smith:

[+] EnlargeVick
Howard Smith/USA TODAY SportsEven with Michael Vick at quarterback, the Eagles could pursue Alex Smith for next season.

1. Philadelphia Eagles: Chip Kelly's scheme has had us speculating on a number of possible targets to start for Philly at quarterback. While Mike Vick seems well-suited to be brought back, it could come at a steep cost to Philly if he returns. That's because A) he'll be an unrestricted free agent if the Eagles cut him (which is likely because of his huge cap number); he has already seen his career rise and fall in Philly, and C) there's need at QB in a number of places.

Smith, meanwhile, would not find a lot of things Kelly has done at the college level difficult to learn and execute. After all, he played college football at Utah under Urban Meyer and was asked to make run reads and take off regularly. As a junior, he ran for 631 yards and 10 TDs for Meyer, and his running ability and overall athleticism were major draws when he was taken No. 1 overall in 2004. He's a throwing upgrade over the still-developing Nick Foles, and probably a durability upgrade over Vick. Kelly and the Eagles brass should kick the tires on what it would take to get him.

2. Cleveland Browns: The Browns have a new owner in Jimmy Haslam and a new VP of player personnel in Mike Lombardi, and Haslam has made it abundantly clear that quarterback is a priority for the organization going forward. And Norv Turner, the new offensive coordinator, has a relationship with Smith. Well, Cleveland already has a "young" QB in Brandon Weeden, you could argue. Except that not only is Weeden actually a half-year older than Smith, his performance in 2012 -- while not bad at all for a rookie, historically -- doesn't make him immune to legitimate competition for the starting job in 2013. For that reason, and because Weeden is locked in at a very reasonable cap rate of $2.2 and $2.5 million for 2013 and 2014, adding another QB without dumping Weeden can be considered a reasonable option on the books.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: You could argue they already have two quarterbacks to duel it out in Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne, and both are owed money in 2013. If each remains on the roster, however, the combined cap hit is only $7.4 million. That's not a miniscule total, but if the Jags truly want to upgrade expectations at QB, Smith has shown a higher ceiling than either of them to this point. Were he acquired, either of those two could be offered up in trades that could recoup at least some draft-pick compensation to off-set what they gave to get Smith. Do they really want to head into 2013 with the Gabbert-Henne battle as the camp headline?

4. Kansas City Chiefs: If Andy Reid is known for one thing, it's that he can succeed with his passing attack if he can assure some level of competency. The current quarterback situation in Kansas City is simply bad, and the No. 1 overall pick in 2013 doesn't offer the opportunity to draft a QB the Chiefs can assume will be ready to give them a certain upgrade at the position. In fact, they are probably better off drafting on the offensive or defensive line, spots in which the draft is extremely good at the top, and speculating on a QB in Rounds 2 or 3.

Or they could use a couple of picks to land Smith, and immediately be pegged as one of the turnaround favorites for 2013. The Chiefs simply aren't the disaster in personnel that their record indicated -- consider how well they ran the ball in 2012 even without any expectations at QB -- but they need an upgrade. Smith would be one.

5. Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals should be ready to accept Kevin Kolb as a sunk cost and mitigate the terrifying cap hits he represents in 2013 and beyond if he remains on the roster. He's far too great a financial bet for them to maintain on the roster. The Arizona offense could also make great strides in 2013 if it can nail down a consistent quarterback. Tackles Nate Potter and Bobby Massie were bad early (particularly Massie, who really needed more time to develop) but showed marked improvement in the final quarter of the 2012 season. Another addition along that line could mean a far higher level of expectations for the offense in 2013. Ryan Lindley and John Skelton have shown flashes, but each lacks a level of consistent accuracy that coaches need. It stands to reason the 49ers might not be thrilled about shipping a QB they developed to a division rival, but all options should be on the table for the Cardinals, who have ranked 31st, 28th and 32nd in the NFL in passing DVOA going back to 2010. Ugly.

Wild-card: Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker is the future, except that he's played for the most part like the quarterback with major accuracy questions the Titans drafted out of Washington in 2011. In a make-or-break year for the coaching staff, all options could be on the table.

Why not the New York Jets?
Sure, the Jets seem like a logical destination for a QB upgrade. That's before you look at the books, however. Unless they can extricate themselves of Mark Sanchez (and the phone isn't ringing), Smith and Sanchez would combine for a cap hit of over $20 million in 2013, more than Peyton Manning.

Alex Smith is no guarantee. He was leading maybe the best-assembled overall roster in the NFL, a team that could defend and run the ball effectively, alleviating the pressure on whoever takes the snaps for Jim Harbaugh. But even if he's considered a Harbaugh creation, he's one the Niners will be looking to move. And the teams above could have interest.

Any Insider Bucs news?

didnt see thread:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/8855506/mel-kiper-regrading-2012-nfl-draft#NFC%20S

NFC South please

up

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8899482/nba-raptors-acquire-rudy-gay-more-changes-coming-toronto
and
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8894024/nba-ranking-league-top-10-perimeter-defenders

A lot can happen between now and the start of the league year on March 12, but there are few NFL players about whom there has been more speculation recently than current San Francisco 49ers backup QB Alex Smith. And though there are several destinations that could use the upgrade at QB that Smith would provide, the link between Smith and the Cleveland Browns is more than just casual speculation, according to what we've heard.

Smith and his teammates are down in New Orleans for the Super Bowl, and he fielded a question on his potentially landing in Cleveland for next season. "Loved my time with Norv," Smith declared, per the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "[It was] a very, very friendly QB system. For [Cleveland], it's going to be a terminology change going from a West Coast system to the digits, but very, very QB friendly, big-play potential for the offense with a lot of chunk plays. He's a great play caller. I just remember he had a great feel for the game on gameday and a great feel for what the defense was doing."

Smith would not confirm that he's been thinking about reuniting with Norv in Cleveland, but given that his team is playing in the Super Bowl this Sunday, we'd expect that to be part of the reason why, even if Colin Kaepernick is currently starting. After Sunday's business is through, expect this story to ramp up even more.

In a vacuum, acquiring a player with the talent and productivity of Rudy Gay is a good idea for a team like the Toronto Raptors, as was reported Wednesday night. Gay has an ideal build for an NBA wing, possesses superlative athletic ability and until this season had shown gradual, subtle improvement over the course of his seven NBA seasons. And at 26, he's in the early part of what should be the peak portion of his career.

The problem is that Gay is compensated like he's a great player and unfortunately, even when Gay is going well, he's merely good. For much of this season, he hasn't been even that, with a PER of just 14.3 and a career-worst true shooting percentage of .478. He's better than his numbers from the first half, but when you look at Gay's career progression, you wonder if his development has flatlined.

After making an encouraging 39.6 percent of his 3s in 2010-11, Gay has shot 31.2 and 31.0 in the two seasons since, respectively. His foul-drawing rate has remained stagnant and his turnover rate has never really varied much above just below average.

More From ESPN.com
Among Henry Abbott's six thoughts, he sees the Griz trade as not a franchise blowing up a contender, but one avoiding financial ruin. TrueHoop

• Grading the trade | 5-on-5
• Per Diem: What's next for Griz? • SportsNation: Who Won The Trade?

To Gay's credit, he has become a more willing passer over the course of his career as he has fallen into a supporting role in the Memphis pecking order. Gay, one of the league's best finishers in the open court, spent a lot time hovering on the wing while the Grizzlies featured the high-low post combination of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph in the half-court offense. Gay gets his looks, but he wasn't the featured player in Memphis.

Add it all up, and you have a solid 5-7 win player who is being paid like he's a 10-11 win player. Gay is in the midst of the third season of the five-year, $82 million max contract he signed in the summer of 2010. He's now the Raptors' highest-paid player by a good amount. Given what's on hand in Toronto, Gay should get the chance to prove he's worth the money, as he's now the franchise's marquee player.

More changes coming?
The Raptors have bounced back from a horrendous start and entered the fringe of the race for the East's last playoff spot, which probably won't require a .500 record to land. That's neither here nor there, even though Toronto hasn't appeared in the postseason since 2008. Gay might actually improve those odds, but the eyes of front-office architects Bryan Colangelo and Ed Stefanski should remain on the bigger picture.

Moving Jose Calderon was a no-brainer because of his expiring contract. Toronto has a solid option at the point in Kyle Lowry and a nice change-of-pace backup in John Lucas III, who has been underutilized this season. To bring in Lowry, the Raptors traded a first-round pick, which will likely keep them out of June's lottery even if they miss the postseason, so this was the plan all along.

[+] Enlarge
Glenn James/NBAE/Getty Images
Johnson had paired well with Davis, but now shoulders the rebounding duties.
Sending away third-year forward Ed Davis stings, as he was one of the most improved players in the league. Davis was the Raptors' best rebounder and had worked well in tandem with Amir Johnson since Toronto's frontcourt was beset with injuries. Davis is the kind of fungible player that you look for in the draft when there is no apparent franchise player available with your pick. His athleticism marks him as a perennial upside candidate and we've seen some of that this season.

However, Davis is too limited on offense to be a core player, and that's what the Raptors need. Core players. With little hope of attracting a top-tier free agent and no lottery pick in the offing for this summer, rolling the dice on someone like Gay via the trade market is about the only option Stefanski and Colangelo had to shake up Toronto's foundation. Expect that shake-up to continue, because right now the Raptors feature an odd roster.

It begins on the wing, where DeMar DeRozan is more or less a poor man's version of Gay. He's fun to watch in the open court and carries himself on offense like "the man," but he's a 22 percent career shooter from 3-point range and is headed for his fourth straight season with a WARP well below replacement value. This makes Toronto's decision to sign DeRozan to an early extension in October that much more of a head scratcher. He simply hasn't earned the four-year, $38 million deal he landed, and it doesn't even start until next season. Now you have to figure that DeRozan's trade value is nil, because teams generally aren't too anxious to pay $9.5 million per season for a below-replacement player with four years of no tangible progress.

Meanwhile, there is little hope that head coach Dwane Casey will find a Gay-DeRozan wing combo a tenable option. He still has promising rookie Terrence Ross on hand, and you can imagine him being a really nice fit alongside Gay. Ross has similar abilities in the transition game and can finish with explosive leaping ability. But Ross also blends those qualities with exciting potential as a long-range shooter, something DeRozan doesn't offer.

DeRozan might make sense as a designated off-the-bench gunner, but it's doubtful he'd be satisfied with such a role at the age of 23 after starting 255 of his first 267 NBA games. On top of all that, Casey still has Landry Fields around to be an awfully expensive fourth wing, and journeyman Alan Anderson, who this season has played better than any wing currently on Toronto's roster. Casey is a defensive coach and DeRozan has been better on that end, but even there Gay is the superior option. In the perimeter defense rankings we unveiled Tuesday, Gay didn't make the top 10, but ranks in 83rd percentile overall.


Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
Ross might pair up nicely with Gay as a high-flying scoring duo.
With Davis gone, the attention in the frontcourt now turns to rookie center Jonas Valanciunas, who has been out with a broken finger. While he has been tentative much of the time, Valanciunas is still a skilled 20-year-old with a legit center's body who has posted a 14.5 PER in his first season on this side of the Atlantic Ocean. He's a big part of Toronto's future. With Gay on hand for one more guaranteed season, plus a player option for 2014-15, that future needs to come into focus sooner than later.

Gay's contract status apes that of Andrea Bargnani, who has missed half the season with a bum elbow. When Bargnani has played, he has posted his lowest PER of his seven NBA seasons. Bargnani and Valanciunas are due to return soon, which will give the Raptors a couple months to see how these pieces interact. The hope had been that with Valanciunas on hand, we'd finally get to see if Bargnani would blossom from the relief of no longer having the burden of playing the middle.

It didn't work early on, but perhaps a healthy Bargnani can rekindle that enthusiasm. A pie-eyed Raptors fan can imagine an ideal lineup of Lowry, Ross, Gay, Bargnani and Valanciunas and summon a little excitement. Unfortunately, the imagination of fans in Toronto may be about exhausted.

Unless the aforementioned group comes together and clicks quickly, you can expect the Raptors to remain aggressive on the trade market, if not before next month's deadline then certainly during the summer. With Bargnani, Fields and Lowry all inked to the kind of cap-clogging middling contracts next season that you like to avoid, and Gay's massive deal now on board, a trade centered around Bargnani might be the only way for Toronto to make any further kind of meaningful change.

It's easy to nitpick on the acquisition of Gay, and it is kind of like putting finishing touches on a painting that's missing more than a few key strokes. Plus, there are more than a few contracts on Toronto's ledger that have pay-to-performance ratios which are a little … uncomfortable. But if the Raptors want to add impact talent, they've got to take chances. If you're going to roll the dice, you do it on a player with the upside of Rudy Gay

One of the hardest things to measure in basketball is individual perimeter defense. Measuring interior defense is no picnic either, but in general, high shot-block and defensive rebound rates correlate to good overall team efficiency when it comes to preventing points. Teams with good defensive big men tend to be good overall on defense, and teams that lack a defensive anchor tend to give up a lot of points -- not always, but most of the time.

It's not nearly as cut and dry when it comes to the point guards and wing players around the league. Coaching philosophies play a large part in perimeter defense, as does the quality of a team's big men. If you have Dwight Howard playing behind you, you should be able to be more aggressive out on the floor and cut down on open looks. That's theoretical, as this season's Los Angeles Lakers have managed to play bad defense even with Howard manning the middle.

In an effort to rank the best perimeter defenders in the league, I've created a system that incorporates results from some of these various systems.

From Synergy Sports Technology, I generated reports in overall points per play allowed as well as for isolation plays defended and points allowed on those isos. That accounts for three of the six factors. From 82games.com, I used team reports on PER allowed by position for factor No. 4. For No. 5, I used Jeremias Engelmann's regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM). And from my system, I added together percentages in blocks and steals, which is often correlated to good individual defense.

I also used lineup analysis from my system to identify which spots players have occupied this season. A player must have logged at least 400 minutes this season and played one of the three perimeter spots at least 30 percent of the time. That's a little tricky because of combo forwards like Josh Smith and LeBron James, but I ultimately attempted to be more inclusive than not. There are 172 players who qualified for the rankings.

The isolation data is particularly telling for a couple of reasons. First, when you think of the term "stopper," you have an image of a guy facing up with someone like Carmelo Anthony on the wing and digging in while Melo jab steps and head fakes before settling for a fadeaway jumper that clangs off the back of the rim. This is the stopper's job, and the essence of individual defense.

More than that, you can tell a lot by how often a player is isolated on defense. If a guy can't play defense, teams will find a way to go at him. You have to be careful, because sometimes teams are very good at hiding poor defenders, who aren't left to fend for themselves often. The final formula is a weighted average of the rankings in the six factors. The plus-minus data is weighted the most heavily, followed by the Synergy data and steal-plus-block percentage.

Here are this season's top 10 perimeter defenders:

1. Josh Smith | Average rank: 17.94
Smith is certainly athletic enough to guard any position on the floor, though it's questionable whether he is a true perimeter stopper because of the amount of time he spends at power forward and guarding the rim. According to my system, he has played 33 percent of his minutes at small forward this season. He ranks sixth on a per-possession basis against isolations and second in steal-plus-block percentage. Smith is just a really good defensive player, which hasn't always been the case during his career.

2. Andre Iguodala | 21.31
This ranking is true to Iguodala's reputation, as he is a big part of Denver's improved perimeter defense. Iguodala always draws the opponent's top perimeter scorer in crunch time, so he gets isolated fairly frequently. He ranks seventh in points per play allowed against isos, and fourth overall, so it's never a winning strategy to go at Iggy. He leads the league in RAPM.

3. Mike Conley | 22.88
The Grizzlies are one of the top defensive teams in the league, and it starts with Conley's ability to delay opposing point guards from getting into their half-court sets and his thievery in the passing lanes. Playing alongside Tony Allen, who also made the top 10, doesn't hurt. Teams haven't been shy about isolating Conley, but he has held up well in those situations.

4. Marquis Daniels | 26.44
Daniels has never rated very high by advanced metrics, but this shows why he keeps finding work in the NBA. He is first in points per isolation allowed in our group, first overall in points per play allowed and 19th in RAPM.


5. Tony Allen | 31.00
Allen earned first team All-Defensive honors last season, so his defensive reputation is considerable. These rankings show just how good the Memphis backcourt is on the defensive end. Allen is third in RAPM. His rating is actually dragged down by his No. 99 ranking in what I've termed "defensive isolation usage." Teams have isolated Allen on an average of 12.1 out of every 100 possessions he's been on the court. That simply speaks to the quality of defensive assignments Allen draws from Lionel Hollins.

6. Dwyane Wade | 34.50
Wade doesn't have a great reputation for individual defense, and true enough, he ranks just 50th in points per play against isolations. He is sixth overall in PPP and may benefit from always drawing the least crucial defensive assignment when he plays alongside LeBron James and Mario Chalmers. That allows Wade to roam free to collect steals and blocks and save his energy for the offensive end.

7. Luc Mbah a Moute | 34.69
The top perimeter defense belongs to the Bucks, so it's fitting that they land a pair of defenders in the top 10. Mbah a Moute is an old school defensive specialist in the mold of Bruce Bowen. Like Smith, he plays a fair amount of time at the 4, and some of his numbers have been compiled in the paint. However, he has played more than half his minutes at the 3 and is one of the few players in the league who can legitimately guard four, maybe even five, positions.

8. Vince Carter | 35.44
This is easily the most surprising name on the list. Carter didn't have a good defensive reputation when he was at his athletic peak, and he turned 36 a few days ago. He doesn't have a standout category but ranks in the top 40 in each of the five individual factors. The Mavericks haven't been great against perimeter players in general, ranking 25th in opponent PER. Carter, for what it's worth, has improved his teams' defense by 2.1 points per 100 possessions over the course of his long career. This season, the Mavericks are three points better on defense when Carter is on the floor.

9. LeBron James | 37.00
It's no surprise that James shows up in any rankings, but when you consider that he has had to defend the paint more than ever before, this rating is really impressive. You would figure that teams playing big would be able to exploit him on the block. James is rarely exploited on the floor no matter what he's trying to do.

10. Andrei Kirilenko | 39.00
It has to warm your heart when players with great defensive reputations show up in your objective system for rating defense. Kirilenko has long been one of the league's top help defenders, with combined rates of steals and blocks that few perimeter players have ever compiled.

Finally, because I know you're wondering: Ranking 172nd, and last, is Miami's Mike Miller, just behind Sacramento's Jimmer Fredette and the Lakers' Chris Duhon.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/blog/_/name/nfl_draft/id/8897977/2013-nfl-draft-sleepers-super-bowl-xlvii

plz senoRITA