https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/29360333/acc-coastal-season-preview-qbs-put-north-carolina-miami-virginia-tech-ahead-pack#NorthCarolinaNorth Carolina
Coach: Mack Brown (76-52-1, 12th total year)
2019: 7-6 (4-4 in ACC), 30th in SP+
2020 projection: 9-3 (6-2), 16th
Five best returning players: QB Sam Howell, ILB Chazz Surratt, WR Dyami Brown, WR Dazz Newsome, CB Storm Duck
I'll admit, I didn't like the aesthetics of Brown's return to North Carolina. With so few great coaching opportunities for up-and-comers available in a given year, the thought of a retiree like Brown or, the year before, Herm Edwards cutting in line to get one of them rubbed me the wrong way.
It all looks great if it works, though, and one cannot deny that Brown seems to be making the most of this career coda. He inherited a reasonable-upside team from Larry Fedora, one that had been banged up for two straight years. He stole blue-chip quarterback (and Florida State commit) Howell in recruiting. He hired a pair of exciting young coordinators -- Phil Longo on offense, Jay Bateman on defense. And with a lineup that returns almost wholly intact this fall, he CEO'd his way to a 7-6 campaign; considering the Tar Heels had won five combined games in 2017-18, that's a solid start.
Sam Howell and North Carolina will be tested early with games against UCF and Auburn to start the season. James Guillory/USA TODAY Sports
Now, with massive returning production and the 16th-ranked recruiting class coming to town, Brown has got actual expectations on his hands again.
We grade freshman quarterbacks on a curve, but by the end of 2019, Howell didn't need one -- he was just plain awesome. He battled through up-and-down, freshman-type play for a couple of months, but over the last five games, which included battles with Pitt's best defense in ages and a pre-collapse Virginia defense, he completed 66% of his passes with a 182.0 passer rating. Even with early volatility, he finished 31st in Total QBR. He gets his top five wideouts back, too, including dual thousand-yard receivers in Newsome and Brown. The run game could stand to be more consistent (the Tar Heels were just 66th in rushing success rate), but the top two RBs return, as do six linemen with starting experience, all of whom were freshmen and sophomores last season.
Bateman wasn't quite as immediately successful as Longo -- UNC was 25th in offensive SP+, 44th on defense -- but the front and back of his defense were awfully young. Four freshman/sophomore linemen and four such DBs all logged at least 130 snaps. Sophomore corners Duck and Trey Morrison allowed just a 51% completion rate, and junior Raymond Vohasek can disrupt from end or tackle up front. OLB Tomon Fox is an ace pass-rusher, and inside linebacker Surratt earned all-ACC honors in his first season after converting from quarterback. If Desmond Evans, ESPN's top D-end recruit for 2020, carves out a pass-rushing niche opposite Fox, it certainly seems the upside is high here.
We'll know what we need to know about UNC pretty quickly. The Tar Heels are scheduled to start against UCF and Auburn in the first two weeks, then face a hangover game against FCS heavyweight James Madison after that. If they start 3-0, this is a team with top-10 potential. Opening 2-1 would be pretty good, too.
This post was edited by judson04 on Jun 27 2020 09:41am